Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ A catastrophic explosion at a Russian arsenal may have taken place while an ammunition train was being loaded or unloaded. Images from the depot show ammunition stacked in the open, while its bunkers seem to have been poorly protected.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1914792770927047046

2/ Triangulation of videos showing the initial explosion suggests that it took place at the very centre of the arsenal near Kirzhach (coordinates 56.101466125876044, 38.74729263195981), where satellite images show a rail loading/unloading facility.

3/ New satellite images released today show that the most heavily impacted area of the arsenal is centred on the rail loading/unloading facility, which may support the hypothesis of an accident with an ammunition train.

https://x.com/MT_Anderson/status/1915458253825380610

4/ The depot is believed to have stored a wide variety of ammunition, including solid-fuel anti-aircraft and ballistic missiles, multiple-launch rockets, and shells of various kinds. It reportedly stored ordnance that was transferred from Belarus.

5/ The 51st GRAU arsenal not only stores ammunition but handles its assembly (for instance, installing warheads on anti-tank missiles), repairs it, and disposes of it if it is defective.

6/ The arsenal occupies an area of ​​502 hectares (3.5 square km), with an 8.4 km perimeter. Within it are 14.2 km of railways and 15.3 km of roads, with a capacity of 4,286 rail cars of ammunition – 64 tons each, or more than 264,000 tons at maximum.

7/ In 2009, after a deadly ammunition explosion in Ulyanovsk, journalists were invited to tour the 51st GRAU depot to inspect it. Retired colonel Viktor Litovkin wrote in the 'Nezavisimaya Gazeta' that he was not impressed with conditions there:

8/ "It was striking that, although the areas with stacks of boxes of shells were revetted, there were no earthen ramparts between the stacks themselves, as we were once taught in military school. [Depot commander] Colonel Kaliskin said that it was too expensive to do this.

9/ "No funds were allocated for such work. The buildings and structures of the arsenal are also "not in their first youth". It is noticeable that they were built 40-50 years ago. With all the attributes inherent to that time."

10/ Litovkin also noted the low quality of the arsenal's poorly paid workforce and outdated handling facilities: "The equipment of the workshops and laboratories is also very antiquated. There is no trace of robotics...

11/ "Mostly women work here – relatives of officers and warrant officers of the small garrison here. As a rule, they are of mature age.

12/ "There is no other work around, and the 6-8,000 rubles [$72-96] that they receive here for dangerous and rather harmful work (you can't breathe from the fumes in some workshops) – they are involuntarily satisfied. And what about women?!

13/ "The head of the arsenal gets 22,000 [$265] with all the "markups", a senior warrant officer with 17 years of service, whose father and grandfather worked at the arsenal all their lives – 10,000 [$120].

14/ "Is it any wonder that such an underestimated, despite all the beautiful words from all the high tribunes, "human factor" and technological neglect were and are the cause of all emergencies and disasters."

15/ Presciently, Litovkin warned: "God forbid something happens, we will again have to, like in Ulyanovsk, collect unexploded, but already armed ammunition with our bare hands." This is exactly what has now happened.

16/ Boxes of ammunition can be seen stacked in the open in a satellite image from September 2024. This has clearly been a long-running practice, as they're also visible in a photo taken by a soldier in December 2015 during construction works.

17/ Photos taken elsewhere in the arsenal show boxes of ammunition being stored under unwalled wooden sheds, with no protection from the elements other than a roof over the top.

18/ In 2013, it was decided to update the arsenal with fortified bunkers built to modern standards. However, as highlighted in the thread below, nearly half the 1.3 billion ruble budget was stolen by the contractors.

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1914814894295089562

19/ By 2017, when the video above was shot, the work was still unfinished. It continued until 2021. The replacement contractors weren't much better, as they subcontracted building work to shady 'one-day' companies which are usually used to steal money.

20/ The facilities that were eventually built at the 51st GRAU arsenal appear to have been substandard. Satellite images show that more than half of the buildings, including all of those along the railway, had no earth cover at all but were protected only by earth revetments.

21/ Many of the revetments seem to have only been constructed on one side of the buildings, not surrounding them. The level of protection at the Kirzhach arsenal (l) is visibly much less than at the Toropets depot (r), which was largely destroyed by Ukraine in September 2024.

22/ As @CITeam_en says: "The better the shelter, the greater the chance that a fire that starts in one place will not destroy the entire arsenal.

@CITeam_en 23/ "If there are concrete bunkers, then this chance is good, if there are earthen ramparts, then it is average, and if the ammunition is lying in the open, then it is possible to avoid serious consequences only by a miracle."

24/ The latest images show that around 1 square kilometer of the 51st GRAU arsenal has been razed to the ground. There's no word yet on casualties, but the size of the explosions makes it very likely that there has been loss of life. /end

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1915465229154111822

Sources:
🔹 svoboda.org/a/spravilisj-s…
🔹 t.me/DniproOfficial…
🔹 archive.is/hlA2Q
🔹 astra.press/russian/2025/0…