Amid hostilities in #Sahnaya, let's get one thing straight -- this is *not* a "gov't vs. Druze" conflict. By any means.
#Syria's Druze are extremely divided -- especially the clerics.
And more than any other actor, #Israel is preying on that division.
#Syria's Druze are extremely divided -- especially the clerics.
And more than any other actor, #Israel is preying on that division.
While some #Druze clerics (like Hijri) appear determined to hold hard against #Damascus, others (like Hinawi & Jarbou) seem determined to find a middle ground compromise.
Then there's Druze in #Israel (working with the IDF) & in #Lebanon (backing #Damascus).
Then there's Druze in #Israel (working with the IDF) & in #Lebanon (backing #Damascus).
The most powerful #Druze militias (Rijal al-Karama, Ahrar al-Jabal etc) -- HQ'd in #Suwayda -- have signed a framework security agreement with #Damascus & work jointly with the Interior Ministry. They worked together to end fighting in #Jaramana & same overnight in Sahnaya.
On the weaker end of the militia spectrum lies the Suwayda Military Council -- formed 24hrs after #Assad's fall and which is led, in part, by at least 3 former #Assad regime generals.
The SMC is widely known to have links to #Israel.
The SMC is widely known to have links to #Israel.
In recent weeks, at least 9 men have been detained by #Syria gov't sources in villages SW of #Damascus on charges of secretly meeting with #Israel's IDF in the newly expanded buffer zone in the Golan Heights.
A sense that something was bubbling has been building for weeks.
A sense that something was bubbling has been building for weeks.
Then you also have local #Druze militias in places like #Jaramana & #Sahnaya -- that are not part of the core #Suwayda militia infrastructure.
Under #Assad, #Jaramana's militias were *notorious* for being pro-regime & deeply involved in the drug trade & organized crime.
Under #Assad, #Jaramana's militias were *notorious* for being pro-regime & deeply involved in the drug trade & organized crime.
Important -- when #Israel has militarily intervened, or threatened to do so, it's only ever been to specifically protect #Druze militias known for (a) hostility to #Syria's new gov't & (2) for having previously been part of, or loyal to #Assad's regime.
Amidst all these layers of complexity, there's also the intra-Bedouin & Bedouin vs. #Suwayda militia hostilities that have burned off/on for years along the #Damascus-#Suwayda highway -- tied to drugs, kidnap for ransom, and some historical animosities.
Finally you have the post-#Assad chaos of mass weapons proliferation, a mammoth & *far* from complete DDR process & a fledgling central gov't largely incapable of keeping everything in balance.
+ Social media disinformation, deep historical grievances & #Israel.
+ Social media disinformation, deep historical grievances & #Israel.
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