The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
May 3, 2025 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This is insane:

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just announced they now hold a record $348 BILLION in cash.

Since 2022, Buffett's cash balance is up $239 BILLION and he has net SOLD stocks for 10-straight quarters.

What does Warren Buffett see here?

(a thread) Image
Below is Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet:

They now hold $305.5 BILLION of US Treasury Bills and $36.9 billion of cash in their insurance and other business.

In their Railroad, Utilities and Energy business, they hold another ~$5.3 billion of cash.

This is unprecedented. Image
To put this in perspective, the US Federal Reserve currently holds $195.3 billion in US Treasury Bills.

This means that Berkshire Hathaway now holds ~$110.2 billion MORE of T-bills than the Fed.

Berkshire Hathaway's T-bill balance is ~56% HIGHER than the Fed itself. Image
Furthermore, this cash balance is larger than the market cap of all but 27 public companies in the world.

In fact, Buffett's cash pile is now larger than the market cap of Bank of America, $BAC, and Coca-Cola, $KO.

Buffett continues to accumulate cash at a rapid pace. Image
Not only did Berkshire Hathaway build a record cash balance, they also repurchased $0 of stock in Q1 2025.

This is the 3rd straight quarter without buybacks.

In Q3, Berkshire said buybacks will resume when Buffett “believes that the repurchase price is below intrinsic value." Image
The question becomes, did Warren Buffett deploy any of his cash in April?

His $348 billion cash balance is as of March 31st.

However, between March 31st and April 7th, the S&P 500 fell as much as -14%.

Since then, the S&P 500 is up ~17% from its low with many stocks up more. Image
While it is too soon to tell, Buffett continued to strike a cautious tone.

We believe Berkshire's Q2 earnings release and conference will be far more telling.

Most trade war volatility has materialized over the last 30 days.

The 90-day tariff pause will also be over by then.
Berkshire noted that the fair value of their 5 largest holdings represented 71% of aggregate fair value of their equity holdings.

These 5 holdings include American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron.

Berkshire remains highly concentrated in a few names. Image
Buffett also commented on tariffs and the ongoing global trade war.

He said trade “should not be a weapon" and “there is no question that trade can be an act of war.”

Berkshire's operating earnings fell 14% YoY, to $9.6 billion, partially due to the effects of tariffs. Image
Furthermore, Warren Buffett provided some investment advice today.

He said, if you talk to a CEO, ask them this question:

If you were stuck on a desert island for 10 years, which of your competitor's stock would you buy?

And which of your competitors stock would you short?
Finally, Warren Buffett announced that he will be stepping down as CEO.

Buffett has been the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway for 55 years.

He is the longest serving CEO of any S&P 500 company.

He has also been CEO for as long as the average S&P 500 CEO has been alive. Image
Warren Buffett's legacy is truly unmatched.

He became CEO of Berkshire Hathaway in 1970 and the stock has returned over +330,000% since then.

We will likely never see a more successful investor than Warren Buffett.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for more as this develops. Image

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Feb 5
What is happening in crypto?

Since October 10th, crypto markets are now down -50%, erasing $2.2 TRILLION worth of market cap.

Bitcoin has officially erased ALL of its post-election rally, now down -10% since Trump's election.

Why is it crashing? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
As of 8:00 AM ET today, Bitcoin has officially erased its post-election rally.

Yet, over the last 60 days, the fundamental picture for crypto is actually vastly unchanged.

This is why many investors are confused.

Why is crypto crashing if the fundamental picture is unchanged? Image
The answer to this question requires going back to October 10th.

The most recent TOP in crypto came on October 6th, just 4 days before the -$19.5 billion record liquidation.

Something structural appears to have shifted on October 10th.

And, markets never truly recovered. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 20
This is unprecedented:

If President Trump acquires Greenland and "controls" Venezuela, the US would gain control of 1.2 MILLION square miles of land.

This is ~42% larger than the Louisiana Purchase, the largest US acquisition ever.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
It was an incredibly busy weekend.

On Saturday, Trump announced new 10% tariffs on eight European countries amid his push for Greenland.

Trump says these tariffs rise to 25% on June 1st.

They will remain until a deal is reached for "complete and total purchase of Greenland.” Image
The result was a series of escalations on the trade front and the EU threatening to retaliate.

Now, the EU Parliament is looking to end the 2025 US-EU trade deal.

Trump proceeded to double down, saying US acquiring Greenland is "imperative for national and world security." Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 7
Trump is going after the US housing market:

President Trump just announced he is BANNING single-family home purchases by institutional investors.

Within minutes, Blackstone's stock erased as much as -$17 BILLION today.

What happens next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
For years, investors have been upping purchases of single-family homes in the US.

At the start of the pandemic in 2020, investors saw purchases account for ~14% of transactions.

Now, that share is up to ~27% as the market has become increasingly unaffordable for buyers. Image
As a result, the median age of a first-time homebuyer in the US has surged to a record 40 years old.

This is up from a median age of 33 years old in 2021 and 29 in 1981.

But the question now becomes:

Is this the result of large institutional funds buying houses? Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 4
The Venezuela plot thickens:

While Venezuela holds 303 BILLION barrels of oil reserves, much of this is HEAVY crude oil.

Texas and Louisiana also *happen* to have 6 of the LARGEST HEAVY crude oil refineries in the world.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
In the early 2000s, Venezuela was a MUCH larger oil producer than the US.

In fact, Venezuela produced 3 TIMES as much oil, at nearly 3.3 million barrels per day.

By 2020, Venezuela's production had declined to just 900K/day, while the US hit 5 million/day.

This is key. Image
First, Venezuela has been heavily sanctioned by the US for years.

This resulted in old infrastructure, hindering the ability to extract HEAVY crude oil.

Heavy oil is far more expensive to extract than light crude.

This requires advanced techniques like steam injection. Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 27, 2025
The Silver Situation:

Silver prices are now up a MASSIVE +175% in 2025 and set to post an 8-month win streak for first time since 1980.

Gold and silver have added a combined +$16 TRILLION in market cap this year ALONE.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
As you may know, our view for 2025 has been "own assets or be left behind."

This year, just about ALL assets have pushed higher.

But, as of late, gold and silver are leading the charge, now up 4 and 8 TIMES as much as the S&P 500 YTD.

It all started with a weaker US Dollar. Image
The US Dollar is currently down -9% YTD on track for its worst year since 2017.

As rate cuts kicked off, the US Dollar saw further weakness.

And, as President Trump's new Fed Chair is set to be announced, markets are pricing-in even more dovish Fed policy.

This is key. Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 18, 2025
What just happened?

Core CPI inflation in the US just unexpectedly fell to 2.6%, its LOWEST level since March 2021.

3 months ago, inflation rose to a 6-month high, and last month, the October CPI inflation report was "cancelled."

What changed? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
At first glance, this looks like one of the best inflation reports in years.

The 40 bps drop in headline and core inflation is one of the largest YoY declines since 2023.

And, this comes as core inflation was expected to INCREASE.

It also comes at an interesting time. Image
Last month, the US cancelled the October CPI inflation report.

They cited "a lapse in appropriations" which prevented data from being collected during the government shutdown.

Why is this important?

It means the BLS had to make tons of assumptions for last month's data. Image
Read 12 tweets

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