Thread by @SpencerGuard

1/ BREAKING: Israel announces approval and plan to launch the next major phase of operations in Gaza, Operation "Gideon’s Chariots"— one that appears guided by a phased strategy rooted in lessons from past conflicts: Clear, Hold, Build. Here's what it means—and why it matters. 🧵

2/ Israel's goals remain unchanged: secure the release of all hostages, dismantle Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, and ensure that no threat can reemerge from Gaza to endanger Israel again.

3/The plan is a major shift from what has been implemented in Gaza so far, instead of raiding in, limited clearing, and withdrawal operations, the IDF will operate with full force, expand its presence across Gaza, and remain in every captured area.

4/ The plan appears to have three defined phases:
• Phase 1: Prepare—IDF forces shape the battlespace, isolate Hamas, allow for hostage negotiations and pre-position for sustained ops.
• Phase 2: Clear and Hold—methodical clearing of Hamas presence and capabilities, area by area, with IDF maintaining control.
• Phase 3: Build—govern, stabilize, and support local alternatives to Hamas.

5/ Civilians will be temporarily evacuated from main combat areas in northern and central Gaza to southern humanitarian zones recently cleared by IDF forces, to separate civilians from Hamas militants and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid.

6/ This is not new in war. In Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine, General (ret) David Petraeus & Sir Andrew Roberts describe how this strategy has worked globally—from Malaya to Iraq. Done right, “Clear, Hold, Build” is how forces can be defeated and kept out of power—not just by killing fighters, but by restoring new governance.

7/ There are many variation of this approaches such as:
• Ink-blot strategy—secure small areas and gradually expand control outward like ink spreading on paper.
• “Safe neighborhoods”—walled zones where local governance could operate under IDF protection.

8/ Urban warfare isn’t ultimately won by firepower alone. It’s won when a population believes that something better is possible. That’s why the IDF’s new approach focuses on clearing, holding, and eventually building—not just destroying Hamas.

9/ The plan faces real challenges. Hamas hides among civilians, uses hospitals, mosques, and schools to shield itself. It thrives in chaos. But this next phase is designed to shrink that chaos with order, sequencing, and presence.

10/ A key part of the plan: aid will now be delivered directly to Gazans—cutting Hamas out of the distribution loop. This removes one of the group’s main tools of power: control over food, fuel, and medicine.

11/ But there's a problem: the UN has said it will not assist. Despite one of the humanitarian crises, the UN has refused to support aid delivery unless Hamas regains a role.

14/ This will not be easy—and it will not be quick. Success requires a sustained IDF presence, large-scale force commitment, and the evacuation of civilians—a process Hamas actively sabotages. Clearing dense urban terrain and tunnel networks is slow, dangerous, and lethal. The enemy always gets a vote.

15/ Many unknowns remain. President Trump has proposed letting civilians who want to leave Gaza do so—but Egypt continues to block any such movement, refusing to assist or open the Rafah crossing.

16/ Israel is preparing to clear and hold territory—but it also intends to build. Security, aid, governance, and hope. The goal is twofold: to shatter Hamas’s belief that Israel lacks the will to dismantle its grip, and to give Gazan civilians hope that something better can come after Hamas.