Clément Molin Profile picture
May 5 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Russian 🇷🇺 forces managed to breakthrough the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka line and start fightings inside the trenches of the line.

For the first time, russian forces can hope reaching Kostiantynivka from the south after pushing back ukrainians 🇺🇦 from Toretsk.

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On this long video, a ukrainian VAB 🇫🇷🇺🇦 is targeted at the entrance of a large trench network with few dugouts.
Ukrainian soldiers jump in and start fighting against russian soldiers who took control of the fortified position, they also face constant drone attacks.
As I already said many times, those kinds of positions are not suitable for defense, in the open with not enough dugout positions, despite stong fondations (woods).
Russian observation drones can see everything and FPV drones can strike soldiers in the open. Image
Image
After a fast bike breakthrough a few days ago, russian forces are consolidating their gains into the fortified line. Image
Ukrainian forces also conduct a lot of drone stikes on russian supply lines and against russian assaults. The bikes are fast and can avoid part of those strikes.
Here, russian forces are taking prisonners who have been cut of their lines after the rapid progress.

Russian forces often use the same strategy : fast assaults on one position, that they hold at any price until being reinforced and cutting ukrainian troops from behind.
On this other video, we can see a russian IFV firing at ukrainian held houses in the village of Nova Poltavka.

It means they crossed the Pokrovsk Kostiantynivka highway and managed to get through anti-tank ditches (some were incomplete, but mainly, ditches have holes).
Indeed, a ditch is not meant to stop ennemy vehicles and does not cover roads, but is meant to concentrate your ennemy vehicles on a singular road, forcing it to come into your fire. Image
This screenshot has been take west of Hrodivka, where the russian army launched for the first time in month an unsucessful offensive on Myrnorhad.
The current russian progress on the high ground threaten the lower ground east, all the way to Toretsk.

Russian forces will try to progress parallel to the defensive line. Image
In the Leonidivka area west of Toretsk, there is a constant push with motorcycles as a "modern cavalry". They managed to get to the center of Novopavske.
Russian forces also crossed the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway on the Malynivka direction.

Now, let's think about what is going to happen next.
Here is a map of all territories conquered by russian forces in 2025 in the region (675 km2). We can see that they advance in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast direction and now south of Kostiantynivka.

Seizing Pokrovsk remain one of the main 2025 objective. Image
This high quality map (click to zoom in) shows all the 2025 progress with in black the Donbass administrative border.

You can also see the 2024 progress west of Donetsk and compare everything after 5 months (the summer is more suitable for large scale offensives). Image
I believe russian forces will try to definitely cut the Pokrovsk-Kostiantinivka road, while advancing in the south-western part of Donetsk oblast. Image
The recent progress will allow russian forces to control at least the white area in a few months if the pace of advance remains the same, before the december 2025 objectives (securing Oskil ? advancing on Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka or Pokrovsk, or both ?) Image
I put again the first map which is crucial to understand the recent russian progress.

I also still have an article from last january on @atummundi with different scenarios for 2025 in Ukraine :
atummundi.fr/clement-molin/…Image

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More from @clement_molin

Jul 10
700 new russian airstrikes since june 11 between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka showing that Russia 🇷🇺 is willing to push to the west.

In Sumy, I even mapped 1 700 russian airstrikes on ukrainian 🇺🇦 held towns, treelines and forests.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️Image
If you follow me, you may remember my previous thread on russian airstrikes campaign.

Visible from space, I mapped on june 11th around 1 000 russian airstrikes in the road between Pokrovsk and Kostinaytnivka. Image
Now that we have again clear satellite images, I did it again. It shows more than 700 new airstrikes in a month in this small perimeter of the frontline.

New airstrikes are showing that Russia is willing to push to the northwest and west directions, to encircle Pokrovsk. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jul 10
La Russie 🇷🇺 à l'offensive de l'Arménie 🇦🇲

Après avoir sécurisé la Géorgie 🇬🇪 dans son giron, Moscou tente d'interférer contre Erevan.

Moscou "renforcerai" sa base à Gyumri, aide à la préparation d'un coup d'Etat et soutien l'opposition.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ Image
L'agenda politique arménien est plus que tendu ces derniers jours.

Alors que Nikol Pashinian affiche un rapprochement sans précédent avec les anciens ennemis azerbaïdjanais et turcs pour signer un accord de paix et l'ouverture du corridor de Zanguezour, Moscou tente d'interférer Image
En ce moment même, Nikol Pashinian négocie à Abu Dhabi aux Emirats Arabes Unis avec Ilham Alyiev, président azerbaïdjanais.

Les deux hommes espèrent la signature d'un accord de paix historique. Image
Read 16 tweets
Jul 9
Vu du ciel, les immenses lignes de fortifications ukrainiennes 🇺🇦, qui pourraient servir de ligne de démarcation d'un cessez le feu ou de ligne d'arrêt.

Les images satellites Sentinel-2 du jour donnent un aperçu de cette ligne de défense, de Kharkiv à Pokrovsk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17⬇️ Image
Des deux côtés de Kharkiv, 3 fossés anti-cgars qui viennent renforcer des fossés existants. Néanmoins, la ligne reste assez loin de la frontière. Image
Zoom à l'ouest de Kharkiv, trois rangées de fossés renforcent un fossé existant, sans oublier les dents de dragons et barbelés, existants et nouveaux. Image
Read 17 tweets
Jul 9
Comment les interventions militaires des Émirats Arabes Unis 🇦🇪 au #Yémen 🇾🇪, en #Libye 🇱🇾 et au #Soudan 🇸🇩 ont semé le chaos, divisé ces pays… et abouti à des échecs cuisants.

Quand les Emirats créent artificiellement de nouveaux Etats - Récit.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15⬇️ Image
Depuis les années 2010, les Émirats se sont posés en acteur militaire majeur du monde arabe. Officiellement : lutter contre l’islamisme et le terrorisme. Officieusement : imposer leur vision autoritaire de l’ordre régional, notamment en opposition à l'Iran et la Turquie. Image
Dans chaque pays ciblé – Yémen, Libye, Soudan – les Émirats ont soutenu des milices, des chefs de guerre ou des généraux, souvent au mépris de l’unité nationale ou de la paix.

La conséquence ? 3 nouveaux Etats
Read 17 tweets
Jul 8
Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces are building two massive defensive lines 20km from the frontline

Thousands of small positions and difficult-to-penetrate obstacles have been erected. A second line is being prepared - UPDATE.

🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️Image
West of Pokrovsk, the reader will notice that anti-tank ditches, obstacles, and trenches are increasingly numerous in the open countryside.

After fortifying the immediate rear of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian army began its "New Donbass Line." Image
I already mapped and analysed part of this New Donbass line. It is stretching from Zaporizhia oblast to Kharkiv.

Now, a new ditch is being completed a few kilometers east, especially behind main Donbass cities. Image
Read 23 tweets
Jul 7
La grande ligne de défense européenne 🇫🇮🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇵🇱🇺🇦

Aux frontières russes 🇷🇺 et biélorusses 🇧🇾, plusieurs pays européens s'activent à créer des fortifications.

Mais celles-ci sont-elles véritablement utiles ? Avons nous des images satellites de ces défenses ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
Les officiels européens défilent sur une minuscule portion du nouveau système de défense polonais à la frontière de l'oblast russe de Kaliningrad.

Pourtant côté ukrainien, ces défenses peuvent faire rire. Image
De la Finlande (et même dans une moindre mesure la Norvège), jusqu'à la Pologne, le flanc oriental de l'OTAN et de l'Union Européenne se prépare à une éventuelle invasion russe.

Tous ont décidé la construction de fortifications défensives. Image
Read 21 tweets

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