Thread by @clement_molin

Russian 🇷🇺 forces managed to breakthrough the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka line and start fightings inside the trenches of the line.

For the first time, russian forces can hope reaching Kostiantynivka from the south after pushing back ukrainians 🇺🇦 from Toretsk.

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On this long video, a ukrainian VAB 🇫🇷🇺🇦 is targeted at the entrance of a large trench network with few dugouts.
Ukrainian soldiers jump in and start fighting against russian soldiers who took control of the fortified position, they also face constant drone attacks.

As I already said many times, those kinds of positions are not suitable for defense, in the open with not enough dugout positions, despite stong fondations (woods).
Russian observation drones can see everything and FPV drones can strike soldiers in the open.

After a fast bike breakthrough a few days ago, russian forces are consolidating their gains into the fortified line.

Ukrainian forces also conduct a lot of drone stikes on russian supply lines and against russian assaults. The bikes are fast and can avoid part of those strikes.

Here, russian forces are taking prisonners who have been cut of their lines after the rapid progress.

Russian forces often use the same strategy : fast assaults on one position, that they hold at any price until being reinforced and cutting ukrainian troops from behind.

On this other video, we can see a russian IFV firing at ukrainian held houses in the village of Nova Poltavka.

It means they crossed the Pokrovsk Kostiantynivka highway and managed to get through anti-tank ditches (some were incomplete, but mainly, ditches have holes).

Indeed, a ditch is not meant to stop ennemy vehicles and does not cover roads, but is meant to concentrate your ennemy vehicles on a singular road, forcing it to come into your fire.

This screenshot has been take west of Hrodivka, where the russian army launched for the first time in month an unsucessful offensive on Myrnorhad.

The current russian progress on the high ground threaten the lower ground east, all the way to Toretsk.

Russian forces will try to progress parallel to the defensive line.

In the Leonidivka area west of Toretsk, there is a constant push with motorcycles as a "modern cavalry". They managed to get to the center of Novopavske.

Russian forces also crossed the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway on the Malynivka direction.

Now, let's think about what is going to happen next.

Here is a map of all territories conquered by russian forces in 2025 in the region (675 km2). We can see that they advance in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast direction and now south of Kostiantynivka.

Seizing Pokrovsk remain one of the main 2025 objective.

This high quality map (click to zoom in) shows all the 2025 progress with in black the Donbass administrative border.

You can also see the 2024 progress west of Donetsk and compare everything after 5 months (the summer is more suitable for large scale offensives).

I believe russian forces will try to definitely cut the Pokrovsk-Kostiantinivka road, while advancing in the south-western part of Donetsk oblast.

The recent progress will allow russian forces to control at least the white area in a few months if the pace of advance remains the same, before the december 2025 objectives (securing Oskil ? advancing on Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka or Pokrovsk, or both ?)

I put again the first map which is crucial to understand the recent russian progress.

I also still have an article from last january on @atummundi with different scenarios for 2025 in Ukraine :
atummundi.fr/clement-molin/…