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Mike Honey Profile picture
@Mike_Honey_
May 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late April.

Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant appears to have peaked, and fell to around 39%.

XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) looks like the next challenger, rising strongly to 11%

#COVID19 #Global #LP_8_1 #XDV
🧵 Image
Globally, the XDV.* variant clan (led by NB.1.8.1) is showing a strong growth advantage of 5.5% per day (39% per week) over the dominant LP.8.1.* variants. That predicts a crossover in mid-May.

That could point to higher waves than those seen for LP.8.1.*.
🧵 Image
NB.1.8.1 was initially reported from Hong Kong, rising to 100% frequency. It has also shown sustained growth in several other countries in the region, plus Canada and the US - all adding to its credibility.
🧵 Image
Report link:

🧵 endsmike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genom…

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More from @Mike_Honey_

Mike Honey Profile picture
May 11
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-April.

The LP.8.1.* variant growth continued to around 61%, but may have peaked.

The presumed next challengers – XFG.* and XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) are still below 5%.

#COVID19 #USA #LP_8_1 #XFG #XDV
🧵 Image
Image
For the US, the XFG.* variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.9% per day (41% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in late May.
🧵 Image
For the US, the NB.1.8.1 variant shows a healthy growth advantage of 4.3% per day (30% per week) over LP.8.1.1, with a possible crossover in June.
🧵 Image
Read 4 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
May 10
With the LP.8.1.* variant dominant from the global perspective, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1), and XFG.*.
#COVID19 #NB_1_8_1 #XFG
🧵 Image
With the splintering of XFG.* into sub-lineages, I have switched my analysis to my variant “L2” groups.

I show them here using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the dominant LP.8.1.*. 🧵
Note the recent sample volumes are quite low, so the right side of this chart might not be a representative picture.
🧵
Read 12 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
May 9
I found some data on the illness levels of workers in the Australian health sector.

Here are the trends claims for staff in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry in NSW, affected by Infectious and Parasitic Diseases.

#COVID19 #Australia #NSW #HealthCareWorkers
🧵 Image
It seems clear the dramatic change from late 2021 is almost all COVID-19. It closely follows the familiar patterns for the known waves in that period, and is a huge deviation, even vs mid-2021.
🧵
Here are the claims for Infectious and Parasitic Diseases across all Industries (in pale blue). I have highlighted the sub-totals for the Health industry (dark blue). Note while Health was a more proportionate contributor in 2021 to mid-2023, from that point on it dominates.
🧵 Image
Read 11 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
Apr 30
Over the weekend I updated the dataviz and all the pdf reports for my usual weekly SARS-CoV-2 variant analysis (after a break over Easter), but I’ve run out of time to write any analysis.

Here’s the global report link, others in the thread below:

🧵mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genom…
Australia:

🧵mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genom…
New Zealand:

🧵mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genom…
Read 7 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
Apr 28
Earlier this month the XFL variant was defined, setting a new benchmark in SARS-CoV-2 evolution: a "quadruple-recombinant", meaning it’s evolution includes 3 recombinant ancestors.

It’s a stark example of how we are giving this virus every opportunity to evolve.
#COVID19 #XFL
🧵 Image
The diagram summarizes it’s evolutionary journey, which includes 3 ancestor recombinants and several other sub-lineages before XEC.18 and XEU recombined to form XFL.
🧵
The start of the upper branch of this tree is the JN.1.11.1 variant, which evolved into the more successful KP.2.3 and KP.3.3 in early 2024.

All 3 variants were in circulation for around a year, with JN.1.11.1 peaking at 2% globally, with KP.2.3 at 9% and KP.3.3 at 8%.
🧵 Image
Read 15 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
Apr 26
With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, NB.1.8.1, XFG and XFJ.

#COVID19 #LF_7_7_2 #NB_1_8_1 #XFG #XFJ
🧵 Image
I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1. Note the recent sample volumes are quite low, so the right side of this chart might not be a representative picture.
🧵
LF.7.7.2 is descended from FLiRT JN.1.16.1. LF.7 added several Spike mutations: T22N, S31P, K182R, R190S and K444. Then LF.7.7.2 added the Spike H445P mutation.
🧵
Read 20 tweets

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