Zhao DaShuai 东北进修🇨🇳 Profile picture
May 11 18 tweets 6 min read Read on X
My detailed analysis of the Pakistan-India conflict.

What did Pakistan do well and which areas does Pakistan needs to improve upon.

Then a weapon list for Pakistan to increase their existing qualitative edge over India, deterring future aggressions.
1/🧵 Image
First, general assessment.

In this engagement Pakistan's air force were the main deciding factor for their victory.

Pakistan Air Force, PAF has proven that they can deploy half the number of fighters in the air, and still gain air superiority over India.
After this defeat, India will seek to bolster their weapon systems by throwing money at the problem.

More flashy weapons will be inducted, creating a hodgepodge of incompatible weapon systems from 10 different countries.
Pakistan shouldn't fall into this reductive race to the bottom. It should leverage its strength, and have a smaller, nimbler and more integrated air force.

What would that Air Force structure look like?

The key phrases are:
🔹Nimble in deployment.
🔹Flexible in function. Image
🔹Nimble in deployment is crucial, Pakistan lacks strategic depth, it's smaller than India.

A lot of Pakistan's infrastructures are within the range of Indian missiles.

To be nimble in deployment means an elite air fleet rotating between air bases to avoid being paralyzed
🔹Flexible in function, means redundancies within any modular unit of PAF air squadrons.

This maximizes the bang for the buck in weapon procurement.

The aforementioned 2 points will result an air fleet similar to that of an aircraft carrier air wing.
A small amount of multirole lethality packed into a small nimble package.

Essentially the future force structure of the PAF should be a figurative aircraft carriers on land.

Hard to pin down, able to redeploy at a moments notice to any airfields within the country. Image
What are the areas Pakistan needs to improve upon?

🔹Pakistan needs more air defense systems, some Indian missiles were able to penetrate the air defenses.

🔹More air launched standoff and precision munitions for the Pakistan air force. More saturation attack methods
Now, which weapon system does Pakistan need?

Right off the bat, system integration is number one priority. Which means more AWACS (aerial radar/command post aircraft)

AWACS serves as the information node, the nerve center to give PAF that superior edge. Image
Since I know China best, these weapons will be Chinese, foreign equivalent will also do.

But for AWACS, it's preferable for Pakistan to get Chinese ones, we can provide after-sales tech support for system integration.

A jointly developed version of the KJ-500 would be perfect. Image
It has integrated collaborative targeting feature with the PL-15 and other Chinese made missiles.
The next, will be the tip of the spear for the PAF.

The J-35AE stealth fighter.

The control surfaces are carefully angled, resulting in stealth capabilities, allowing it to penetrate anywhere inside India and unleash precision destruction. Image
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The J-35 will haunt the skies over India like a predator. Ready to pounce on any targets with impunity. Image
To improve Pakistan's air defense systems, it needs more layers.

The HQ-9 and HQ-16s are great, but it needs more systems with shorter ranges.

These systems are easier to deploy in spartan conditions, shutting off vectors of attack by Indian air force and missiles.
The best system for that role would be the DK-10.

This system is derived from the PL-12 air to air missile, which means it's small and has an active radar seeker.

Allowing it to be deployed more independently compared to the HQ-16 or HQ-9. Image
They can be placed in hiding, and ambush the Indian air force as a popup threat.

For short ranged point defense for critical assets like air fields and military installations, Pakistan needs these land based CIWS.
For anti-drones, we have microwave weapons that fry the circuitries of small drones, they are able to take down drone swarms.

Lasers are for larger singular targets.
How realistic is all this? Can Pakistan afford all of it?

National leaders view things at a much wider scale and longer time frame than counting pennies.

India is the emerging threat for China, the West clearly wants to use India to undermine us.

If it takes some money to fund these weapons for Pakistan, to better defend an ally and a friend, then it is worth every dollar.

China is building a new global order, we need friends, and we need to demonstrate that standing with China has its benefits.

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More from @zhao_dashuai

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And why canards are fine for 5th gen stealth fighters but not 6th gen fighters.
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Multi-band stealth means the aircraft must be very low observable VLO in both high and low frequency radars.

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What does this particular rationale presented by the US Army War College tell us?

Our conclusion is that the US is afraid to initiate the war over Taiwan with China, because they lack good rationales for a such costly conflict.

To the US, war should be a profitable business.
Wars do not start with a snap of the finger.

There are many rungs on the ladder of escalation finishing with open conflict.

Whichever side intends to climb that ladder has the *initiative* to escalate.

The other side then has the *dilemma* to escalate in response or not. Image
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"We have some choices to make as we observe what China has produced".

China has surpassed the US on 6th gen fighter development. They're reacting to the Chinese development.

Thread on this watershed moment for air superiority
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It's the first time the US is playing catch up in air superiority, since World War 2.

The entire Western war doctrine revolves around gaining air superiority, losing that means losing everything.

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Currently the most public and advanced 6th gen fighter in the world is the J-36, the competing "J-50" is less known, hence less talked about.

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First thing first, get rid of all the weapons systems of Western origin.

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Then splurge on Chinese weapons.

Currently, China is the only non-Western weapon exporter that can provide full sets of weapon systems on time.

So what kind of weapons do the Arab nations need? Image
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