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Alex Monahan

@AlexMonahan100

Apr 19

Sports Betting vs Stocks: Which is more profitable?

I've done both, and here's you answer 👇

All my sports bets are given out on social media for FREE (X/stream) or in the @SEVADiscord here: discord.gg/9mPEzUphvn

I started my career as a quant trader @ Morgan Stanley then SIG, and there's a lot of similarities between stocks & sports betting...

Similarity #1: Market-driven prices
Both the sports betting market and the stock market operate based on real time data. As people buy or sell a stock, or bet on a team to win or lose, the price moves. In sports betting, this is called line movement

You can see a line movement chart for the Mavs v Grizzlies game tonight from @OddsJam - odds have slightly moved towards the Mavs since the market opened. The market is implying the Mavs are "less big" underdogs.

Sportsbooks adjust odds/tick them around ALL the time for a variety of reasons:
1) "Flow" or betting volume, especially from sharp/profitable customers.

If all the sharp/profitable customers on FanDuel start betting on Klay Thompson to score over 14.5 points @ +100 odds, then FanDuel will adjust the odds and/or move the line.

FanDuel is getting information through betting volume that sharps/profitable customers think Klay is a "buy" @ 14.5. Maybe they move Klay's line from 14.5 to 15.5 or even 16.5. Or, maybe they move the odds on the over from +100 to -130. Odds aren't static.

2) Injuries/lineup changes.
Sportsbooks aren't stupid. Lineup news, injuries, weather, etc. is ALL factored into the odds they're putting out. FanDuel is a $40 billion dollar company - they know who's playing, etc.

Continue 👇👇

If you're interested in trading/quant trading, check out this YouTube tutorial I made on my experience: youtu.be/YVGAnGev1y4

Similarity #2: "Price" (or Odds) Have Meaning

In the stock market, price represents company valuation. If Nvidia stock drops 10%, then investors are saying the company is 10% less valuable.

There's MILLIONS of investors, quants & researchers who wake up every day & think about what Nvidia should be valued at ($2 trillion? $2.5 trillion?), etc. They do TONS of research & try to get an "edge." The price where supply & demand "meet" = fair value = the stock price.

In sports betting, odds signify win probability. The Grizzlies are roughly -200 favorites tonight according to the market (e.g. books on @OddsJam). NBA moneylines are SUPER liquid/active betting markets.

-200 odds = 2:1 betting favorite = 2/3 to win = 66.7% to win.

The "market" (e.g. all sports bettors) are saying Memphis has roughly a 66.7% probability of winning the game. THIS is where supply & demand meet.

+400 = 4:1 underdog = 20% to win, etc etc.

Read 9 tweets

Alex Monahan

@AlexMonahan100

Apr 18

If you're already a profitable sports bettor, here's the 5 easiest ways to INCREASE your profits🧵👇

I do ALL of these. My results follow...

Tip #1: Sign up for ALL sportsbooks in your location. Here's a FULL tutorial on ALL books I've used & which ones are most exploitable/profitable: youtu.be/DOFa220VZcU

I've used ~75 sportsbooks since I started sports betting seriously in 2018. I would NOT be able to get my results with only a couple books. All books set their own odds, so more books = more profitable bets = more profit in your pocket.

Sometimes, FanDuel/DraftKings have the best value. Other days, it's PrizePicks/Betr.

ALL of these books run lucrative sign-up bonuses as well. When I signed for DraftKings, they have a $1,000 deposit match. Literally free money.

This tutorial video breaks down how there's OVER $18,000 in sign-up bonus value across the country: youtu.be/F5KRaIBTt7w?si… - DM me any questions

Tip #2: Use EDGE Boost to get "Cash Back" on ALL of your bets. Tutorial I made on EDGE Boost here: youtu.be/8ZNMfd-Fw2A

Edge Boost PAYS YOU to deposit & bet on sportsbooks. It's been a total game changer for me. Already up $457 passive income in April - all from placing bets on sportsbooks, which I was going to do regardless... Getting PAID to gamble is insane 🔥

According to my @pikkitsports bet tracker, last year I bet $2,428,018.09 total (226776.89/.0934). That's ~$6,500/day. I would've made $12,000+ passive income if I was using EDGE Boost back then... But I wasnt... Not making that mistake again this year.

More info on EDGE Boost here: oddsjam.com/edgeboost-card - DM me any questions, I'm happy to give you tips/advice on how to maximize your profits with it

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Alex Monahan

@AlexMonahan100

Apr 2

Why Risk-Free Profit Arbitrage Betting is Possible 💰

People see someone making ~$900/day for 30 days straight and think they are lying or photoshopping. They are not.

Here is a thread explaining 1) why it's possible 2) how you can do it yourself. It's not hard to do🧵👇

I made a FULL tutorial on risk-free profit arbitrage betting here: youtu.be/idwt5TFMgoY. It's well worth watching if you want to make risk-free profits off the sportsbooks. DM me any questions about it!

1) What is risk-free profit arbitrage betting? Why is it possible?

There are 200+ sportsbooks that have launched in the U.S., and they ALL set their own 'prices' (e.g. odds).

Arbitrage is simply when 2 books have SUCH different prices that you can "hedge" to guarantee a profit. It's not really even "gambling" - you're day trading the sportsbooks to lock in risk-free returns.

You're always betting equal & opposite outcomes on 2 different books. Here, you can see I made $127 risk-free in this arbitrage play between ProphetX & NoVig, two betting exchanges.

I bet Florida -9.5 on ProphetX, UConn +9.5 on NoVig and was fully hedged. As you can see, after the game, one bet WON & one bet LOST, but I ended up $127 in profit.

2) Why now? How to get started arbitrage betting? Tutorial for beginners on how to get started: youtu.be/lRD3OV42HDs

I started sports betting with arbitrage & made $40k risk-free profit in 3 months. NOW is the best time to arbitrage bet because the market is extremely "inefficient" with 100's of books launching in the U.S. Online betting is "new" to the U.S. - legalized in 2018 - and the market is FILLED with opportunity.

To start arbitrage betting...
1) Figure out what books are in your state.
Every state has different books available. Some books, like Rebet/ProphetX/NoVig/Sportzino, are available in EVERY state. Others are not. For example, I just locked in this arbitrage bet for $5 risk-free profit between Ballys & ProphetX. Ballys is legal in 10 or so states, ProphetX in 42+ states. Right from the @OddsJam Arbitrage Tool!

2) Start small.
An arbitrage calculator tells you how much to bet & what your risk-free profit will be. Arbitrage betting isn't "hard" to do, but I recommend starting small. These are market inefficiencies, so arbitrage opportunities don't last forever. You want to learn to move FAST & lock these bets in quickly before the odds adjust.

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Alex Monahan

@AlexMonahan100

Apr 1

Not all sportsbooks are created equal...

Last year, I used 50+ online sports gambling platforms. Here are the 5 main "types" you should know about🧵👇

1) Sweepstakes Books (Fliff, Rebet, Sportzino = main 3 I use). Tutorial on sweepstakes books here: youtu.be/prnDKMq0VIg?si…

Sweepstakes books are available in basically EVERY state (Texas, etc). They're also VERY exploitable...

As seen on the @pikkitsports verified bet tracker, Fliff was my BEST book in 2024 in terms of net profit. This year in 2025, Rebet is my best book (so far).

What's BEST about Fliff/Rebet is they're available in nearly ALL states, so you probably have access to them. Both books have "deposit match" sign-up bonuses, too.

Rebet is an AWESOME book for arbitrage (e.g. risk-free profit) betting, especially against exchanges. I'll cover exchanges next. Every day, I'm able to make $50+ risk-free profit on Rebet through arbitrage.

x.com/AlexMonahan100…

Arbitrage is a simple strategy. When 2 books get SUPER out of sync, you can "hedge" to ensure a profit. You're betting the over on 1 book, the under on a different book and locking in a risk-free profit. Arbitrage is basically a way to "day trade" the sportsbooks & make guaranteed returns.

Read 8 tweets

Alex Monahan

@AlexMonahan100

Mar 4

Last year, a lot of my gambling profit came from DFS (fantasy sports)

I use 4 DFS platforms: PrizePicks, Underdog, Dabble & Betr

Here's EVERYTHING you need to know to make money on DFS apps like PrizePicks 👇

Btw... Here's a FULL tutorial breaking down EVERYTHING in more detail: youtu.be/jQldkP4NSj4 - DM me questions anytime 🫡

So WHY use multiple DFS apps? Two reasons...

1) They have different lines from one another

Betr has TJ's line @ 7.5 points. PrizePicks is @ 8.5. Obviously, if you want to play TJ's over, you should run your slip on Betr. Finding value IN the market (e.g. between apps) is the FIRST step to being profitable. If you're playing over 8.5 on PrizePicks when Betr has the line @ 7.5, you'll never be profitable...

2) Limits

I destroyed Betr last year. Now, I'm limited to $100 MAX per day. It sucks, but it is what it is... Using multiple books is the only way to keep my profits going up.

Core DFS Strategy (Fixed Payouts)

I just locked in this slip on Betr. My first pick was Cam OVER 2.5 Asts from the @OddsJam Positive EV Tool: oddsjam.com/betting-tools/…

On DFS apps like Betr/PrizePicks, they have fixed payouts. You take Cam's over or under, you get the same damn payout regardless...

ALL sportsbooks (e.g. betting markets/data points) have Cam's over heavily favored. That's raw market data.
1) BetOnline, a very sharp book: Cam is a -156 favorite to go over
etc.

Note that this line on Cam Johnson is NOT available on PrizePicks, Dabble or any other DFS app.

Read 6 tweets

Alex Monahan

@AlexMonahan100

Dec 31, 2024

What's the best side hustle for 2025? 🤔

Great question. It's arbitrage sports betting, a hidden gem.

Arbitrage is a strategy pro/sharp bettors use to make risk-free profits. It's easy to do - anybody can use arbitrage to make money.

Here's how it works 👇🧵

What is Arbitrage Betting? FULL tutorial for beginners (step by step guide): youtu.be/lRD3OV42HDs - DM me any questions!

x.com/TheArbFather/s…

Arbitrage betting is simple. You're placing 2 bets on 2 different books to guarantee a risk-free profit. This is possible b/c all books set their own odds, and sometimes they get SUPER out of sync.

Here's an example from TheArbFather, a sharp/pro bettor. Caesars/DraftKings were SUPER out of sync on their 1Q totals. He played the over @ -120 on Caesars & got the under @ +140 on DraftKings.

You can see in his breakdown that REGARDLESS of if the quarter went over or under 61.5 points, he was profiting. Either $20 or $25. That's ALL that arbitrage betting is. You're day trading inefficiencies in the betting market, which is possible because all books set their own odds.

x.com/ParlayLab/stat…

As an arbitrage bettor, you want to use AS MANY sportsbooks as possible. More books = more arbitrage plays = more profit for YOU. Arbitrage = market inefficiencies, so we never know which sportsbooks are going to have the "juiciest" (e.g. highest ROI) arbitrage plays on a given day.

There's 200+ sportsbooks in the U.S. - sign up for every possible book in your state. Most of these books have lucrative sign-up bonuses (deposit matches, etc) as well.

For example, ParlayLab just made $12 to $15 risk-free profit for 20 seconds of work... Clicking a few buttons. It's insane. This arbitrage play was between ProphetX & Sportzino, which are 2 new gambling platforms that are available in nearly all states.

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