Thread by @lrozen

🧵NYT on why Trump pulled the plug. After 30 days of US bombing:
“the results were not there. The US had not even established air superiority over the Houthis. Instead, what was emerging…was another expensive but inconclusive American military engagement in the region.

“The Houthis shot down several American MQ-9 Reaper drones & continued to fire at naval ships in the Red Sea, inc. a US aircraft carrier. & the US strikes burned through weapons & munitions at a rate of about $1 billion in the first month alone.

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(via @LemonSlayerUSnytimes.com/2025/05/12/us/…

The Omanis proposed an off-ramp: the US “would halt the bombing campaign & the militia would no longer target American ships in the Red Sea, but without any agreement to stop disrupting shipping that the group deemed helpful to Israel.
U.S. Central Command officials received a sudden order from the White House on May 5 to ‘pause’ offensive operations.

“The sudden declaration of victory over the Houthis demonstrates how some members of the president’s national security team underestimated a group known for its resilience. Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, the head of Central Command, had pressed for a forceful campaign, which the defense secretary and the national security adviser initially supported,

“Significantly, the men also misjudged their boss’s tolerance for military conflict in the region … Trump has never bought into long-running military entanglements in the Middle East, and spent his first term trying to bring troops home from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq.

“In those first 30 days, the Houthis shot down 7 American MQ-9 drones (around $30 million each), hampering Central Command’s ability to track and strike the militant group. Several American F-16s and an F-35 fighter jet were nearly struck by Houthi air defenses, making real the possibility of American casualties, multiple U.S. officials said.
That possibility became reality when two pilots and a flight deck crew member were injured in the two episodes involving the F/A-18 Super Hornets, which fell into the Red Sea from the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman within 10 days of each other.

“The cost of the operation was staggering. The Pentagon had deployed two aircraft carriers, additional B-2 bombers and fighter jets, as well as Patriot and THAAD air defenses, to the Middle East…By the end of the first 30 days of the campaign, the cost had exceeded $1 billion, the officials said.

“So many precision munitions were being used, especially advanced long-range ones, that some Pentagon contingency planners were growing increasingly concerned about overall stocks and the implications for…warding off an attempted invasion of Taiwan by China.

“And through it all, the Houthis were still shooting at vessels and drones, fortifying their bunkers and moving weapons stockpiles underground.

“The White House began pressing Central Command for metrics of success in the campaign. Centcom responded by providing data showing the number of munitions dropped. The intel community said that there was ‘some degradation’ of Houthi capability, but…it could easily reconstitute

“Trump had become the most important skeptic.
On April 28, the Truman was forced to make a hard turn at sea to avoid incoming Houthi fire…, That same day, dozens of people were killed in a U.S. attack that hit a migrant facility controlled by the Houthis,

“Then on May 4, a Houthi ballistic missile evaded Israel’s aerial defenses and struck near Ben-Gurion Airport
On Tuesday, 2 pilots aboard another Super Hornet, again on the Truman, were forced to eject.. sending the plane into the Red Sea.
By then, Trump had decided to declare the operation a success.

Marcy @emptywheel notes: “As the timeline below lays out, this decision didn’t happen at the 31-day mark. It happened at the 51-day mark.” emptywheel.net/2025/05/13/nyt…