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Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

May 18

The Provisional Mortality statistics have been updated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), up to January 2025.

Here are the deaths where the underlying cause of death was certified by a doctor as COVID-19 (22,357 deaths).
#COVID19 #Australia
🧵

Each individual death is represented by a single point, spread out across the years of the pandemic.

A relative low wave of COVID-19 deaths peaked in early January 2025, driven by the XEC.* variant.

🧵

The visual is also available as a vertical scrolling page, which gives a more detailed perspective.

🧵mike-honey.github.io/australia-covi…

Read 6 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

May 17

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late April.

Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant is holding at around 39%.

XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) looks like the next challenger, rising steadily to 13%

#COVID19 #Global #LP_8_1 #XDV #NB_1_8_1
🧵

Globally, the XDV.* variant clan (led by NB.1.8.1) is showing a strong but slowing growth advantage of 5.1% per day (36% per week) over the dominant LP.8.1.* variants. That now predicts a crossover in late May.

Strong growth advantages point to higher waves than for LP.8.1.*.
🧵

NB.1.8.1 was initially reported from Hong Kong, rising to 100% frequency. It has also shown sustained growth in several other countries in the region, plus Canada and the US - all adding to its credibility.
🧵

Read 4 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

May 17

With the LP.8.1.* variant dominant from the global perspective, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1), and XFG.*.
#COVID19 #NB_1_8_1 #XFG
🧵

I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the dominant LP.8.1.*. Note the recent sample volumes are quite low, so the right side of this chart might not be a representative picture.
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NB.1.8.1 is descended from XDV.1.5.1. XDV was a recombinant of XDE and JN.1. XDE was a recombinant of GW.5.1 and FL.13.4 (both descended from XBB), so this represents the last current variant with any non-JN.1 ancestry.
🧵

Read 12 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

May 11

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-April.

The LP.8.1.* variant growth continued to around 61%, but may have peaked.

The presumed next challengers – XFG.* and XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) are still below 5%.

#COVID19 #USA #LP_8_1 #XFG #XDV
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For the US, the XFG.* variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.9% per day (41% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in late May.
🧵

For the US, the NB.1.8.1 variant shows a healthy growth advantage of 4.3% per day (30% per week) over LP.8.1.1, with a possible crossover in June.
🧵

Read 4 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

May 10

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late April.

Growth of the LP.8.1.* variant appears to have peaked, and fell to around 39%.

XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) looks like the next challenger, rising strongly to 11%

#COVID19 #Global #LP_8_1 #XDV
🧵

Globally, the XDV.* variant clan (led by NB.1.8.1) is showing a strong growth advantage of 5.5% per day (39% per week) over the dominant LP.8.1.* variants. That predicts a crossover in mid-May.

That could point to higher waves than those seen for LP.8.1.*.
🧵

Read 4 tweets

Mike Honey

@Mike_Honey_

May 10

With the splintering of XFG.* into sub-lineages, I have switched my analysis to my variant “L2” groups.

I show them here using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the dominant LP.8.1.*. 🧵

Note the recent sample volumes are quite low, so the right side of this chart might not be a representative picture.
🧵

Read 12 tweets

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