Thread by @johnkonrad

Here’s my thread on what we know so far. For notes I have been a competitive sailor and I am licensed to captain ships of any size but I have not sailed tall ships. 🧵

https://twitter.com/nova_campaigns/status/1923934572732899382

First of all this photo confirms there were Mexican Navy’s Cadets on the highest yardarms.

The incident happened at 8:30PM with current traveling upriver.

Currents aren’t strong but it’s only 1.5 hours after low tide so they were still building and hadn’t reached maximum which happens approximately 3 hours after low tide.

Average maximum current at the bridge is usually 2-3 knots.

What can you tell me about the current in the east river at nine pm may 17th based on this data

But the wind was also blowing about 10 knots from the southwest to the northeast

So it would have contributed to pushing the ship into the bridge

She was docked at South Street Seaport In Manhattan very close to the bridge

And this recent photo shows she was facing toward land meaning she had to reverse out into the river

She was escorted by a tugboat, likely the Charles McAllister.

That is a powerful but older tugboat built in 1967z

The newer tugboats are tractor tugs that can push or pull instantly in any direction.

These older tugboats only have a rudder and forward or reverse

tugboatinformation.com/tug.cfm?id=461

In all ports foreign ships must take on a state ship pilot. These are experienced ship captains who work independently.

New York is different. You take on a harbor pilot only when entering or leaving the harbor. When docking and undocking you take on a docking pilot who works for the tugboat company

So she likely had a McAllister pilot aboard giving commands to the tug

The first photo of the tugboat shows her pushing on the stern as the ship reverses off the dock.

Historically in American ports the tugboats tie up on the quarter (where we see this tug.

In European ports the tugboats pull on a line connected to the bow.

Many American ports are moving to the European model because in an emergency the tugboat can tow the ship directly

But that’s not always practical on tall ships because the bow sprite sticks out far

You can see here on the AIS feed via @mercoglianos her back out of the dock and lose power

The million dollar question was what did the tugboat do

You can see here the tugboat was first set up on the stern and was pushing to keep the stern from falling off

But the the tugboat slips forward and starts pushing on the bow likely so that when the ship regains power she can go full speed ahead with maximum force

@mercoglianos The tugboat is powerful - two, Caterpillar 12-D398 turbo diesel engines rated at 1,800 horsepower - but because the tugboat is not tied to the ship she can only push. She can’t pull the ship against the wind and current

Why wasn’t the tugboat tied to the ship as is normal practice?

Why didn’t they order two tugboats instead of one? To save cost?

Why did the ship’s engines fail?

Did lose power because of an electric problem (like the Baltimore bridge collision) or a mechanical problem?

Are we certain the engine lost power?

I don’t know

@mercoglianos What we do know for certain is the captain of the ship, the chief engineer, the pilot and the tugboat captain will all share varying degrees of fault.

Who will get the majority blame? That’s difficult to tell.

@mercoglianos But the immediate concern is getting emergency treatment for the injured cadets:

https://x.com/schizointel/status/1923926992157622681?s=46

@mercoglianos The secondary concern is securing the ship in place so she doesn’t cause more damage

And it appears additional tugboats and fireboats quickly arrived to assist:

https://twitter.com/mercoglianos/status/1923924941377777970

@mercoglianos And finally, too early to speculate but there is a wake suggesting she might have been moving faster than the current

Could her engine have been stuck in reverse?

@mercoglianos For updates on damage to bridge itself be sure to follow Matt 👇

https://twitter.com/mattdursh/status/1923939252934496574

@mercoglianos UPDATE: two sailors have passed 😪

https://twitter.com/nycmayor/status/1923956324737351832

@mercoglianos FDNY describes the initial fireboat response here

Of note crews from two heavy rescue trucks were shuttled out. These are the guys with specialized training in rope rescues.

https://twitter.com/fdny/status/1923955300379377743

@mercoglianos A solid thread from a ship pilot:

https://twitter.com/bartgonnissen/status/1923981596933136555