SPY can easily crash 5-10% this week because its debt got downgraded by Moody's.
But, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to 10x your trading account.
Here's 4 critical levels to focus on for SPY 🧵
Make sure to go to end 🧵where I share my favorite 4 trades with you and what I'll be watching for a swing trade for strong companies like GOOG META AMZN MSFT AAPL TSLA NVDA
I was able to turn $1000 into $73,000+ when SPY sells off on bad news. The key is to wait for buyers to step in at support.
History has shown that within a year SPY bounces back up to 40% from when it gets downgraded. This means I'd like to add options for strong companies espcially at my key levels.
#1. The first key level is under $590 closer to $585. This level buyers FOMO beccause they felt the market was going to leave without them. Its likely we get to this level.
#2. There is a massive continuation gap to fill between $570-$577. This is also where 200SMA is at $574. So this will be a magnet for bears to attack. Price will drive towards here if the market panics on the US debt downgrade.
#3. 200SMA is at $574. Its possible the SPY retests this area because of panic selling and Trump talks about tariffs again. I expect the SPY to defend this area this will be 20 point drop from where it is currently at.
#4. This is extremely unlikely to get to this week at $528-$535. But, US debt being downgraded is a very big NEGATIVE trigger so its possible we get here and fill the gap.
4 plays I'm watching closely for if the SPY does crash 5-10% this week:
1. TSLA under $320 for the move back towards $400 so calls Jan 2026 $420 strike 2. NVDA under $125 for ER run up for $140 June 13 3. AAPL under $200 for Oct 2025 $220 4. GOOG under $160 for Jan 2026 $180
The key here is to wait for SET-UPS right in front of you this week. DO NOT TRY TO PREDICT the moves of the market. The best is to wait for it then execute carefully.
Comment "Help" If you'd like to me to notify you when to add these plays.
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SPY crash 5% most likely (70% chance) Aug-Sept for 5 reasons:
1. P/E valuations are high 2. Mean reversion and RSI overbought 3. Trump Tariffs to kick in Aug 1st. 4. Inflation to come back 5. SPY needs a HEALTHY correction for target $675
Here's how I'd play this in 3 steps:
1. Earnings will kick off and I expect it will do better then expected for most companies actually. I'd start trimming positions so to keep a healthy cash position.
2. As SPY breaks above $630 and possibly as high as $640+ I'd take puts for Sept 26 $600 (as insurance). Those with a small account you can take as low as $580.
3. With my cash position I will add NVDA TSLA AAPL META IONQ HIMS PLTR when they are on sale with 1 year expiry.
Bookmark this to review statistically what has happened in the past and would happen in 2025. My target for SPY year end is $675+
The best way to trade SPY for the rest of the year is to BUY THE DIPS. The key is to add at major areas of support for SPY so close to $610 and $600.
Use 3-6 months of expiry and get a strike $10 away from current price. Bookmark this so you can review it later.
This is a boring strategy but it works especially when SPY is strong and on the uptrend. We waited for SPY to hit close to $480 then added heavy into strong companies and now we just hold as SPY moves up!
SPY exploded 1000% from $0.24 to $2.21 on June 30th for 3 reasons!
Do this exact trade 4x a years. Its predictable. Here's what you need to know 🧵
Calls were alerted at 2pm EST here because of 3 reasons:
✅Quarterly END
✅Month END
✅JPM COLLAR at 5905 (unwinds) so buying stocks
Window Dressing is powerful because every portfolio manager needs to make their accounts look good so prices always need to be HIGHER then when they bought it.
This is why the market is exploding on June 30th and every quarter end.
Most trader's were buying calls yesterday, but I knew top was put in at $360 using this strategy!
Here's the best way to 10x your trading account🧵
This is actual call out at 9:41am EST after I saw weakness on TSLA chart on the 5min and 1HR time frame.
TSLA puts for $340 with Jun 27 expiry with a short call Jul 18 $380.
At 9:41am EST you see TSLA get rejected off $360 resistance from June 3. There is a lot of selling pressure
So before market even opens I am looking for sellers to attack this level and this is what happened at open! As soon as TSLA sold off I knew this was the top:
Exactly 4 months ago, SPY went below 20SMA and crashed 22% due to Trump tariffs.
4 hours ago, US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities escalating war with Israel. SPY will break 20SMA again.
Here's what to focus on if WWIII breaks out next week 🧵
(Bookmark to review!)
Follow @PhilipSoungCho if you're struggling to be a profitable trader. Its easy to double your trading account in a week with this easy set-up you can learn in 1 hour:
@PhilipSoungCho Firstly, institutions said with right triggers like global nuclear war between US and the Middle East, SPY would easily RETEST the $480 lows again.
We think this is highly unlikely and this war will be short but volatile for a few weeks more.