Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 19 8 tweets 5 min read Read on X
We need to place this highly innovative Chinese artillery shell to drone precision guidance kit in its military-technical perspective.

China has taken the late 1960's US idea of a laser bomb now kit and the late 1980's Australian Kerkanya glide wing and tail kit and
put...
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...them on 152/155mm artillery shells as a drone munitions.

Boeing took the Australian Kerkanya DSTO GTV technology demonstrator and later made the JDAM-ER.

China took the Paveway & JDAM-ER kit ideas and mashed them together for a much cheaper
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...precision guided munition than anything that can survive a 40,000 Gee force ballistic tube launch.

A M1156 precision guidance fuze costs $13,500 as compared with Excalibur’s $113,000 per round because of the mil-spec electronics.

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The COTS electronics on this Chinese shell guidance kit only have to survive the Fed-Ex drop & vibration tests at 1/10th the cost of a M1156 fuze.

Now from my point of view, the only 152/155mm shells that make sense for this Chinese guidance kits are time expired shells...

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...that are dangerous to shoot through a tube, AKA DPRK shells.

New 152/155mm shells should be used through a tube.

New 120mm mortar shells have three times the explosive content of a 152/155mm shell and are a better choice for these Chinese drone PGM kits.

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There is a western equivalent of the Chinese artillery shell guidance kit.

The BAE Australia Razer system is a wing/body kit, tail unit and guidance and navigation system designed to attach to 40-50-kg standard, non-guided munitions.
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The difference between the BAE Australia 2023 proposal and the 2025 Chinese kit is the latter is in serial production for Russia and the BAE in Oz kit is not.

This has grave implications for the impending Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

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More from @TrentTelenko

May 18
Brian Iselin on medium -dot- com has a very nice final article in a series of three on how the loss of oil income is killing Russian shell production.

This is a figure from that article:

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This opening paragraph is killer:

"Russia’s military machine doesn’t run on patriotism. It runs on petrodollars. Look at this chart and understand what you’re seeing: the death spiral of an empire, measured in dollars per barrel.

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...When Urals crude crossed below $50 in April 2025, the Kremlin didn’t just lose money. Rather it lost the mathematical possibility of sustaining its war."

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Read 4 tweets
May 18
This @GrandpaRoy2 translation 🧵by a Russian blogger transmits his lament that RuAF flag ranks and big contractors keep seeing FPV drones as a temporary fad awaiting a technological magic bullet that will restore mobility to the battlefield.
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Yet the real issue is the civilian electronic of FPV drones are so cheap and effective that salvaged RPG grenades turn them into swarms of weapons as deadly as ATGM's, but far more maneuverable.

Swarms of FPV's are 21st century machine guns for 20th century tanks & SP guns.
2/
These Russian flag ranks and their defense contractors sound nothing so much as the WW1 Horse Cavalry Generals on the Western Front. Who pretended machine guns, barbed wire and artillery didn't make their mobile 19th century way of war obsolete.
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Read 4 tweets
May 17
The following text 🧵 is from Strategypage -=dot- com:

"Procurement: Economic Industrial Decline For Russia
May 8, 2025: The Ukraine war disrupted Russian manufacturing activity as production shifted to military needs. The large number of Russian men mobilized for the war...
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...caused labor shortages. Then there were over a million Russian men lost, killed, disabled, deserted or fled the country to avoid military service.

The labor shortage is made worse by the lack of high school and university graduates with technical training.

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Too many of those grads concentrated on the humanities rather than industrial and software engineering. As a result, firms manufacturing requiring a lot of people with technical skills cut production.

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Read 27 tweets
May 16
The following is an article from the Strategypage -dot- com web page

"Leadership: How to End A Corrupt War

May 14, 2025: Since 2024 more and more Ukrainian generals and military analysts have been predicting the collapse of the Russian military by mid-2025.
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Now their Russian counterparts are agreeing that the end is near. One Russian general was so dismayed at this that he killed himself. Increasingly Russian men are not just evading military service, but helping those in the military to walk away.

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It’s not just the soldiers. Russian industry, starved by increasingly harsh economic sanctions since 2014 sanctions, is no longer able to produce military equipment. Worse, the capability to repair or refurbish existing equipment has disappeared.

3/
Read 23 tweets
May 13
Finally!

Accounts watching the Russo-Ukrainian War have been utterly confused as to why Ukraine and Russia simply refused to use barbed wire.

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This one of my long threads on the lack of barbed wire from 2023.

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Read 7 tweets
May 13
This Ukrainian video shared by @bayraktar_1love makes clear it wasn't US Patriots on German mobile launchers that nailed a Backfire bomber and a pair of A-50 AEW radar planes.

It was a Ukrainian 1960's era S-200 (Nato SA-5) SAM.

A Victory Lap🧵
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What that video showed was the remote control feature for the S-200's 5P72 launchers.

This Soviet PVO scheme allowed S-200 batteries to put the 5P72 launcher near the front lines and keep the 5N62 Square Pair illuminating target radar 100 km behind it,

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...out of range of NATO tactical ballistic missiles.

A lot of "expert" X accounts in Feb 2024 were saying that this video showed a Patriot engagement or Russian friendly fire engagement.

The A-50 countermeasures pattern was inconsistent with both.

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Read 15 tweets

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