20-1/ My pathogen update for epi weeks 17-20 of 2025.
X seems to be shadow-banning my posts ever since I suggested Musk's erratic behavior was due to his ketamine abuse. Oh well. I'll continue to post here. Let me know if you're seeing them. On to the update...
X seems to be shadow-banning my posts ever since I suggested Musk's erratic behavior was due to his ketamine abuse. Oh well. I'll continue to post here. Let me know if you're seeing them. On to the update...
20-2/ US SARS2 wastewater concentrations have dropped to the lowest interwave levels since June 2021. They haven't dropped to June '21 levels yet, but they're continuing to fall everywhere except the West—but the West is at lower levels than the previous two interwave gaps. 
20-3/ As of the beginning of May COVID hospitalization rates were the lowest they've been since the start of the pandemic. But SARS-CoV-2 is still circulating. Patients are still testing positive for COVID, while the positivity rates for influenza and RSV have fallen.
20-4/ COVID deaths are down to ~128/week. Of course, these are preliminary numbers, but as they stand, they are lower than those from the 2nd week of March 2020, when the pandemic was just revving up.
20-5/ After a big 2o surge in April, Influenza B is exiting the scene. Biofire's proprietary tracking system shows Rhinoviruses are on the rise. Notice that when the rates of COVID fall, RVs rise—and vice versa. No one has explained this pattern yet, but it's held since 2020.
20-6/ LP.8.1x has pushed XEC aside without creating a secondary wave in the US.
20-7/ If previous patterns hold, I suspect we'll see the beginning of a summer wave in the mid-June timeframe. Which variant is a possible candidate to drive a summer wave? Possibly NB.1.8.1. Its numbers are rising. And it's driving a big wave in Hong Kong, Singapore (and China).
20-8/ Here are Hong Kong's wastewater numbers. Notice that HK went half a year without a COVID wave! The rest of the world does not necessarily follow the US pattern of summer and winter waves. There's no reason we have to have a summer wave—but I'm pretty sure we will.
20-9/ Australia has displayed the same biannual wave pattern as the US, and there are indications a new COVID wave is revving up Down Under. New South Wales, its most populous state, shows COVID cases are rising w/ LP.8.1x as a likely driver.
20-10/ It's interesting that while LP.8.1x is unlikely to drive a wave in the US, it's likely to drive a wave in Australia. But they had an XEC wave earlier than we did. Timing seems to play a role in the success of variants (?).
20-11/ In other pathogen news, the US measles outbreak may be slowing. Texas only reported one new case in the past week. The CDC reported 1,024 total cases across 30 states as of May 16.
Measles caused 3 deaths in the US.
Measles caused 3 deaths in the US.
20-12/ Canada has been hit harder than the US. It's had over 1,800 cases, but no deaths (so far).
20-13/ In Mexico, measles has spread beyond Chihuahua into Sonora and Durango, with outbreaks in Tamaulipis and as far south as Campeche. Officially, the case count stands at 421, but it's probably higher. 4 deaths in Mexico, with 3 of them children.
20-14/ The WHO has nice map of measles cases across North and South America. The last update was 18 April. They haven't updated it with May's current numbers, yet.
20-15/ That's it for this update. Again, let me know if you're seeing these. I see that I'm getting a few likes, but the engagement numbers for my posts are zilch. Serves me right for daring to criticize Elon "Free Speech" Musk.
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