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Jordi Visser Profile picture
@jvisserlabs
May 23, 2025 • 18 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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1/ Bitcoin is back at all-time highs. Last time up here, talk centered on a strategic BTC reserve. This time, macro stress is pulling in new investors seeking an alternative to a system that’s clearly breaking down.
Thread 🧵
2/ Bessent “The market and the economy have become hooked, become addicted, to excessive government spending and there’s going to be a detox period.”
3/ And now after Moody's downgrade and the Tax Bill, "We can both grow the economy and control the debt. What is important is that the economy grows faster than the debt."

4/ and now the news and podcasts are flooded with the Liz Truss Moment Image
5/ but this is not just US yields rising, "There is a global element to the move in interest rates. 10Y yields are above nominal GDP in France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Finland and Australia, amongst other places. Hard to pin it just on US fiscal dynamics."
6/ and now Bessent with 30y yields back above 5% comes to the rescue with what would be the first verbal liquidity Image
7/ The Fed is beginning to see pressure in money markets Image
8/ and China is feeling it too Image
9/ I listened to two podcasts today about capital controls and the news is starting to talk more about it Image
10/ and Arthur Hayes is talking about capital controls

11/ this week Image
12/ and Bessent: "The Trump Administration is going big on digital assets."
13/ and next week Image
14/ The ETF buyers keep coming to diversify away from the system Image
15/ and now private equity and long duration assets with no liquidity are in the spotlight - Bill Ackman: "One thing I believe is that the private equity, venture capital and real estate portfolios are mismarked"
16/ FT Robin Wigglesworth - “IRR” is private equity’s favourite measure of returns, but it is tragicomically flawed and often used to bamboozle investors.
17/ I have said on Pomp and reiterated this week that I believe there will be a short squeeze this year at some point and it appears others are thinking the same thing. Image
18/ Global bond yields are going higher and Asia is showing signs of repatriation as the Asian Dollar index rises while TLT makes new lows this week. Moody's downgrades US. The current system is broken and investors are looking for diversification. BTC Image

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More from @jvisserlabs

Jordi Visser Profile picture
Jan 31
The Edge AI Bear Case is Playing Out in Real-Time

1/
 If you're not on X and listening to podcasts, you're behind on the AI speed.
Mainstream financial media is 6-12 months behind what's actually happening.
Case in point: @GavinSBaker warned us about the "scariest bear case" for AI infrastructure less than 2 months ago.
It's happening right now.
2/
 On Patrick O'Shaughnessy's podcast, Baker laid out the threat to centralized cloud inference:
"In three years, you will be able to run a pruned down version of something like Gemini 5 at 30-60 tokens per second on your phone and then that's free."
3/
 He called edge AI "by far the most plausible and scariest bear case" for hyperscaler compute demand.
His timeline? 3 years.
This week's @theallinpod showed it's not 3 years away.
It's starting now.
Read 16 tweets
Jordi Visser Profile picture
Jan 19
If you track HRV and still feel anxious, wired, or “on” all the time and you’ve wanted to understand it more this is for you.

HRV isn’t just a recovery score.
It’s telling you something about modern life.
🧵👇
2/ Anxiety is quietly becoming a defining condition of modern life.

Not panic attacks.
Not diagnoses.
Just a constant low-grade vigilance even among people doing “everything right.”

Technology plays a bigger role than we admit.
3/ I was already deep into longevity and anti-aging when I ran into HRV in 2020.

Not from a paper.
Not from a doctor.
From buying my first Oura ring.
Read 9 tweets
Jordi Visser Profile picture
Jan 4
1/
 There’s a lot of speculation about why Trump moved against Maduro.
Most macro takes default to the familiar explanation: oil.

That framing is understandable but it misses the AI geo-political lens which has been the story since rare earth became the new oil in the AI military world.
2/
 Yes, the U.S. has acted for oil before.
Iraq 2003 proved that.

But Venezuelan oil in 2026 is not Iraq 2003:
– Production is a fraction of prior peaks
– Infrastructure is degraded
– No global chokepoint leverage

If this were about oil, it mot likely would’ve happened years ago.
3/
 To understand Venezuela today, you have to look through a 21st-century military lens, not a 20th-century energy one.

That lens is AI + physical infrastructure.
Read 14 tweets
Jordi Visser Profile picture
Dec 30, 2025
1/ Bitcoin is knocking on the door of its 50‑day moving average (50DMA).
Price is compressing just below it, a level that often acts as a trend pivot.
A reclaim would put BTC back into short‑term bullish territory. Image
2/ This matters because Bitcoin has now closed below the 50DMA for 64 consecutive days.

• Streak start: 2025‑10‑28
• Latest close: 2025‑12‑30
• Length: 64 straight daily closes below the 50DMA
That’s a long time to stay on the wrong side of this trend filter. Image
3/ Since 2020, this has only happened four other times ⬇️

📉 Extended periods below the 50DMA (≥64 days):

• May–July 2021 → 74 days
• Nov 2021–Feb 2022 → 81 days
• Apr–July 2022 → 99 days
• Feb–Apr 2025 → 67 days
Including today, this is only the 5th occurrence in the dataset.Image
Read 9 tweets
Jordi Visser Profile picture
Dec 16, 2025
1/
 The stock market isn’t overvalued.
It’s mispriced for the coming regime.

Most valuations still assume a capital-light, software-driven world.
That assumption is breaking.

🧵👇
2/
 Since the GFC, markets didn’t just cycle, they were rewired.

Policy responses + exponential tech shifted pricing from valuation → flows, mechanics, and momentum.
This became a regime, not a phase.
3/
 Exponential software scale crushed traditional alpha.

Passive investing didn’t rise by accident, capital-light, winner-take-most businesses made stock selection harder.
Passive flows reinforced winners automatically.
Read 11 tweets
Jordi Visser Profile picture
Nov 13, 2025
CoreWeave’s Warning: When AI Demand Meets Infrastructure Reality
The AI boom of 2025 reshaped markets. But the next phase won’t be about capital—it’s about concrete.
We’ve entered a supply-constrained revolution.
🧵👇
1/ Today I published a paper for 22V on CRWV and why for me this was an important inflection point in the AI trade. Image
2/ For three years, the trade was simple: bet on AI demand and capex.
Now, that demand is colliding with physical limits.
CoreWeave’s update showed the constraint has moved from capital to execution.
They cut 2025 capex by 40%, not for lack of demand, but because data-center builders missed deadlines.
Read 12 tweets

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