1/ Bitcoin is back at all-time highs. Last time up here, talk centered on a strategic BTC reserve. This time, macro stress is pulling in new investors seeking an alternative to a system that’s clearly breaking down.
Thread 🧵
2/ Bessent “The market and the economy have become hooked, become addicted, to excessive government spending and there’s going to be a detox period.”
3/ And now after Moody's downgrade and the Tax Bill, "We can both grow the economy and control the debt. What is important is that the economy grows faster than the debt."
4/ and now the news and podcasts are flooded with the Liz Truss Moment
5/ but this is not just US yields rising, "There is a global element to the move in interest rates. 10Y yields are above nominal GDP in France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Finland and Australia, amongst other places. Hard to pin it just on US fiscal dynamics."
14/ The ETF buyers keep coming to diversify away from the system
15/ and now private equity and long duration assets with no liquidity are in the spotlight - Bill Ackman: "One thing I believe is that the private equity, venture capital and real estate portfolios are mismarked"
16/ FT Robin Wigglesworth - “IRR” is private equity’s favourite measure of returns, but it is tragicomically flawed and often used to bamboozle investors.
17/ I have said on Pomp and reiterated this week that I believe there will be a short squeeze this year at some point and it appears others are thinking the same thing.
18/ Global bond yields are going higher and Asia is showing signs of repatriation as the Asian Dollar index rises while TLT makes new lows this week. Moody's downgrades US. The current system is broken and investors are looking for diversification. BTC
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🧵 While economists debate a coin-flip recession and investors brace for a retest because “this makes no sense”… something big is happening beneath the surface.
It’s not about tariffs. It’s not about the Fed.
It’s the quiet rise of AI inference — the real story dominating the economy. 👇
2/ I just listened to a great podcast with Russell Napier making the case for why this is a once-in-a-generation macro pivot.
And I agree with almost everything he said.
But not once did they mention AI or Bitcoin — two of the most important forces shaping what comes next.
3/ While most are still focused on macro signals that feel outdated… the corporate world has moved on.
In Q1, a major shift took place: the conversation in earnings calls pivoted from AI model training to inference — where AI gets deployed, decisions get made, and demand goes exponential.
1/ Since the GFC, gold has quietly outperformed all fiat assets.
At the same time, the non-gold-backed fiat system has entered its final chapters.
But the future won’t be a return to a gold standard or a new global reserve currency.
2/ Instead, the next monetary system will evolve alongside the digital economy.
Payment rails will be built around stablecoins, with network effects reshaping how value moves globally.
Bitcoin will play a key role — not as a currency, but as a critical store of value.
3/ In my latest video
Back to the Gold Standard or a New System? The Future is Built on the Digital Economy
I walk through why there’s something in this story for everyone:
•Gold has validated its place.
•Stablecoins are growing fast.
•Bitcoin’s asymmetric upside is tied to network-driven adoption.
1/Instead of calling this the end of US Exceptionalism, I think this should be called the end of the current global debt backed fiat system. The new system built on the digital economy is where the investments should be and not on the old soon to be replaced system. Thread time
2/As a reminder, the debt is not just a US problem but a global problem that has reached its limits as the OECD Global Debt Report highlights.
3/China and the US are the two largest economies in the world with more than half the debt and the Yuan is still pegged to the US dollar.
1/ Bessent says "NORMAL DELEVERAGING IN BOND MARKET, NOTHING SYSTEMIC"
Trump says "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!"
ok kids, time for a story thread down memory lane of how a debt leveraging sounds in hindisght from leaders
2/ Ben Bernanke (Fed Chair, March 2007):
“The impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.”
3/ Hank Paulson (Treasury Secretary, April 2007):
“All the signs I look at show the housing market is at or near the bottom.”
This was one year before Bear Stearns and 18 months before Lehman.
1/ As I listen to more and more podcasts try to explain the master plan behind this austerity attempt, the markets are reminding me the Mike Tyson line again with trying to deflate this debt bubble, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
2/ It historically starts with whenever "smart" people suggest hurting Wall Street to help Main Street. It usually ends the same way—more money printing and unintended consequences.
3/ When the debt to GDP of the country grows from 30% to 120% since 1982 but the Stock Mkt cap grows from 40% to 211% in that same period, Main St and Wall St become one.