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Mike Honey Profile picture
@Mike_Honey_
May 24 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early May.

The dominant LP.8.1.* variant has fallen to around 34%.

XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) is challenging, rising steadily to 18%.

#COVID19 #Global #LP_8_1 #XDV #NB_1_8_1
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Globally, the XDV.* variant clan (led by NB.1.8.1) is showing a strong and accelerating growth advantage of 5.7% per day (40% per week) over the dominant LP.8.1.* variants. That now predicts a crossover in mid- May (the data routinely lags).
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Strong growth advantages like that (if sustained) could point to higher waves than those seen for LP.8.1.* (which were typically very low).
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The first recent wave of the XDV.* variant clan (led by NB.1.8.1) was in Hong Kong, rising to 100% frequency. It has also shown sustained growth in several other countries in the region, plus Canada and the US - all adding to its credibility.
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Here are the leading sub-variants in the XDV.* clan. NB.1.8.1 is still dominant.
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As you would expect with mostly unfettered spread leading to millions of infections, NB.1.8.1 has started to spawn child variants: so far PQ.1 (with an added ORF1b:S997P mutation) and PQ.2 (with ORF3a:W193R) have been classified, and are showing some signs of growth.
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Report link:

🧵 endsmike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genom…

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More from @Mike_Honey_

Mike Honey Profile picture
May 25
Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early May.

The LP.8.1.* variant continued to dominate, growing steadily to around 52% frequency.

#COVID19 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #XDV #NB_1_8_1 #XFJ
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The presumed next challengers are still at low frequencies but growing – XFG.* to around 10%, and XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) to around 6%, and also XFJ.* grew to 5%.
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In France, XFJ.* grew to sharply from late-April to reach 19%. Earlier, it grew in Germany to 9%.
🧵 Image
Read 5 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
May 24
Here's an animated map showing the spread of the NB.1.8.1 variant, and it’s child variants PQ.1 and PQ.2. The first sample was reported in England in January, but judging from it’s early spread, the origin was likely an undersampled region in Asia.
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It was soon reported across Asia and Australia. Growth accelerated from late March and it is now showing up almost everywhere that is still sharing sequencing data.
🧵
This thread discusses the global variant picture, including analysis on the growth of the XDV.* clan (led by NB.1.8.1).

🧵
Read 5 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
May 24
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early May.

The LP.8.1.* variant has peaked and fell back to 52%.

The presumed next challengers are growing – XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) to 9% and XFG.* to 8%.

#COVID19 #USA #LP_8_1 #XFG #XDV #NB_1_8_1
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Image
For the US, the XFG.* variant shows a strong but slightly slowing growth advantage of 5.2% per day (36% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which now predicts a crossover in early June.
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For the US, the XDV.* variant (led by NB.1.8.1) shows a healthy growth advantage of 4.8% per day (34% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a possible crossover in June.
🧵 Image
Read 9 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
May 19
Hong Kong is the first country to experience a wave driven by the new NB.1.8.1 variant.

From the Hong Kong surveillance report, wastewater is the most consistent indicator. That indicator is still trending upwards, to the highest level since mid-2023.
#COVID19 #HongKong
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Analysis of the impact of the new NB.1.8.1 variant in Hong Kong might be informative for those awaiting that variant in other countries.

Here's my recent thread on that topic:

🧵skywriter.blue/pages/mikehone…
Here’s the current variant picture for Hong Kong, showing the rapid “clean sweep” by the XDV.* variants, led by NB.1.8.1. In the JN.1 era (since late 2023) it has been very rare to see this, anywhere.
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Read 13 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
May 18
The Provisional Mortality statistics have been updated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), up to January 2025.

Here are the deaths where the underlying cause of death was certified by a doctor as COVID-19 (22,357 deaths).
#COVID19 #Australia
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Each individual death is represented by a single point, spread out across the years of the pandemic.

A relative low wave of COVID-19 deaths peaked in early January 2025, driven by the XEC.* variant.

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The visual is also available as a vertical scrolling page, which gives a more detailed perspective.

🧵mike-honey.github.io/australia-covi…
Read 6 tweets
Mike Honey Profile picture
May 17
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late April.

The LP.8.1.* variant appears to have peaked and fell back to 54%.

#COVID19 #USA #LP_8_1 #XFG #XDV
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The presumed next challengers are growing – XFG.* to 11% and XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) to 6%.
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For the US, the XFG.* variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5.6% per day (39% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in late May.
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Read 5 tweets

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