In the #Kostyantynivka direction, #Russia 🇷🇺 started serious offensive operations to flank the city from the west and breach #Ukraine🇺🇦's little number of prepared defenses there, with the help of new drone innovations.
🧵Thread🧵 1/11⬇️
🧵Thread🧵 1/11⬇️
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After the Ocheretyne breakthrough in April 2024, the Russians captured many important positions and settlements around the town itself. One of these was Novooleksandrivka. After its capture, the Ukrainians succesfully halted further Russian advancements towards Vozdvyzhenka, aided by the Kazenyi Torets' and Bychok rivers, which funneled the Russians into the village, and the vast fields north of Novooleksandrivka.
After the Ocheretyne breakthrough in April 2024, the Russians captured many important positions and settlements around the town itself. One of these was Novooleksandrivka. After its capture, the Ukrainians succesfully halted further Russian advancements towards Vozdvyzhenka, aided by the Kazenyi Torets' and Bychok rivers, which funneled the Russians into the village, and the vast fields north of Novooleksandrivka.
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In January 2025, though, the Russians exploited the fact that the Ukrainians had left, after a year of inactivity, only few and inexperienced units defending this sector, and moved the bulk of their reserves to counter-attack at the Kotlyne salient.
Vozvdyzhenka was taken after a couple of days, but the Skala's battalion delaying actions, that was hastily transferred there temporarily, saved the situation by directly attacking Russian accumulation inside the village and giving crucial time to the units behind to reorganize an effective defense.
Some reserves were also transferred, for example an Azov contingent at the "Kleverne" interchange of the important Pokrovsk - Kostyantynivka road, which conducted a successful counter-attack and destroyed a dangerous Russian accumulation under an overpass that was preemptively destroyed by the Ukrainians.
In the picture is where the frontline was stabilized for some time.
In January 2025, though, the Russians exploited the fact that the Ukrainians had left, after a year of inactivity, only few and inexperienced units defending this sector, and moved the bulk of their reserves to counter-attack at the Kotlyne salient.
Vozvdyzhenka was taken after a couple of days, but the Skala's battalion delaying actions, that was hastily transferred there temporarily, saved the situation by directly attacking Russian accumulation inside the village and giving crucial time to the units behind to reorganize an effective defense.
Some reserves were also transferred, for example an Azov contingent at the "Kleverne" interchange of the important Pokrovsk - Kostyantynivka road, which conducted a successful counter-attack and destroyed a dangerous Russian accumulation under an overpass that was preemptively destroyed by the Ukrainians.
In the picture is where the frontline was stabilized for some time.
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The Russians, noticing the stiff Ukrainian resistance in this sector that was not intending to let them pass, applied one of their favourite strategies, and at the end of March 2025 changed the center of fighting to the Oleksandropil - Panteleimonivka region, about 15 km further east.
This area had been static for almost 2 years, and the Ukrainian defendors there occupied very good defensive positions. Though, the Russians exploited the same thing as in Vozdvyzhenka. If that area was defended by few and inexperienced units, this area had been basically forgotten by Ukraine, and the defendors were of very low quality and training. Their numbers were also incredibly low: Ukrainian soldier "Muchnoy", at one point, reported a deficit of 3-4 full brigades at that moment.
The Russians, noticing the stiff Ukrainian resistance in this sector that was not intending to let them pass, applied one of their favourite strategies, and at the end of March 2025 changed the center of fighting to the Oleksandropil - Panteleimonivka region, about 15 km further east.
This area had been static for almost 2 years, and the Ukrainian defendors there occupied very good defensive positions. Though, the Russians exploited the same thing as in Vozdvyzhenka. If that area was defended by few and inexperienced units, this area had been basically forgotten by Ukraine, and the defendors were of very low quality and training. Their numbers were also incredibly low: Ukrainian soldier "Muchnoy", at one point, reported a deficit of 3-4 full brigades at that moment.
5/🧵
But just as the Ukrainians seemed to stabilize this direction, too, offering stiff resistance at Valentynivka, their positions finally collapsed there, too. The village was taken, and the highway was passed, making Sukha Balka also fall shortly after.
A 2015 trench system was also lost west of Oleksandropil without even giving a fight for it because of poor command decisions, and Russian forces leveled the front with the highway here, too.
Seeing this, the Russians went all-in and reactivated the whole sector. Most importantly, Tarasivka was finally captured, which enabled Russian forces to attempt a daring motorcycle assault into Novoolenivka. It succeeded, and the Ukrainians, who hadn't even fully reorganized from Tarasivka, retreated disorganizedly from Novoolenivka.
And here we reach today's situation. The Russians continue pushing from Novoolenivka to Yablunivka along both the Bychok valley and the dominant hill behind it. Kostyantynivka is 13 km away from the front, and Russian FPVs, which had their range significantly upgraded, are calmly flying into the city and striking Ukrainian logistics.
But just as the Ukrainians seemed to stabilize this direction, too, offering stiff resistance at Valentynivka, their positions finally collapsed there, too. The village was taken, and the highway was passed, making Sukha Balka also fall shortly after.
A 2015 trench system was also lost west of Oleksandropil without even giving a fight for it because of poor command decisions, and Russian forces leveled the front with the highway here, too.
Seeing this, the Russians went all-in and reactivated the whole sector. Most importantly, Tarasivka was finally captured, which enabled Russian forces to attempt a daring motorcycle assault into Novoolenivka. It succeeded, and the Ukrainians, who hadn't even fully reorganized from Tarasivka, retreated disorganizedly from Novoolenivka.
And here we reach today's situation. The Russians continue pushing from Novoolenivka to Yablunivka along both the Bychok valley and the dominant hill behind it. Kostyantynivka is 13 km away from the front, and Russian FPVs, which had their range significantly upgraded, are calmly flying into the city and striking Ukrainian logistics.
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And I want to say more about the Ukrainian logistics situation. It's been about a month or two since the Russians significantly improved their FPV drones' range. Currently, the Dobropillia - Kramatorsk road at more than 25 km from the frontline has already suffered many Russian FPV strikes, both on military and civilian vehicles.
According to Ukrainian officers, "the Russians are multiplying by 0 our logistics in the Pokrovsk direction". This means that, even if the positions are correctly fortified and dug in (which is still rare at the moment), neither ammo, food nor fresh personnel and reinforcements can be brought into it, basically forcing a retreat.
It's gotten so bad that this problem is even worse than the well-known higher command issues and the fortification problem.
The cause of this problem is, actually, the lack of manpower. This is because Ukrainian UAV crews now account for 50-85% (according to a Ukrainian soldier) of their assault repulsion actions, meaning that they're focused on striking attacking infantry, and not as many enemy UAV pilots as before. This directly implies more freedom of movement for Russian FPV crews, which can basically zero out Ukrainian logistics.
And I want to say more about the Ukrainian logistics situation. It's been about a month or two since the Russians significantly improved their FPV drones' range. Currently, the Dobropillia - Kramatorsk road at more than 25 km from the frontline has already suffered many Russian FPV strikes, both on military and civilian vehicles.
According to Ukrainian officers, "the Russians are multiplying by 0 our logistics in the Pokrovsk direction". This means that, even if the positions are correctly fortified and dug in (which is still rare at the moment), neither ammo, food nor fresh personnel and reinforcements can be brought into it, basically forcing a retreat.
It's gotten so bad that this problem is even worse than the well-known higher command issues and the fortification problem.
The cause of this problem is, actually, the lack of manpower. This is because Ukrainian UAV crews now account for 50-85% (according to a Ukrainian soldier) of their assault repulsion actions, meaning that they're focused on striking attacking infantry, and not as many enemy UAV pilots as before. This directly implies more freedom of movement for Russian FPV crews, which can basically zero out Ukrainian logistics.
7/🧵
And here is the complete defensive configuration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the whole Kostyantynivka direction.
As you can see, there are a ton of defenses northeast, east, and southeast, but basically none west and northwest of the city. That is exactly the vulnerability that the Russians sensed and are currently exploiting.
In photo #2 you can see a zoomed view of the area between Novoolenivka and Kostyantynivka (just recently redrew the trenches here, so they're quite accurate :).
As you can see, this area is full of gullies and streams, with ditches, teeth and trenches in between them and on the dominant height, which renders this terrain literally "complicated".
The Ukrainians, as such, still have good opportunities to stop the Russian advance here, especially utilizing the bottlenecks that characterize this area. In particular, though, reserves should be somehow transferred here, because if it will not be possible to exploit these opportunities because of lack of manpower, then the Kostyantynivka flower will blossom for the Russians.
In picture #3, instead, you can see a simplified view of everything I said here. The different colors represent, after summing up trenches (and their quality), barbed wire and anti-tank ditches, the good defensive lines that Ukraine has to stop Russia's dangerous advance on the dominant hill behind the Bychok river. This picture also represents the area southwest of Kostyantynivka.
And here is the complete defensive configuration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the whole Kostyantynivka direction.
As you can see, there are a ton of defenses northeast, east, and southeast, but basically none west and northwest of the city. That is exactly the vulnerability that the Russians sensed and are currently exploiting.
In photo #2 you can see a zoomed view of the area between Novoolenivka and Kostyantynivka (just recently redrew the trenches here, so they're quite accurate :).
As you can see, this area is full of gullies and streams, with ditches, teeth and trenches in between them and on the dominant height, which renders this terrain literally "complicated".
The Ukrainians, as such, still have good opportunities to stop the Russian advance here, especially utilizing the bottlenecks that characterize this area. In particular, though, reserves should be somehow transferred here, because if it will not be possible to exploit these opportunities because of lack of manpower, then the Kostyantynivka flower will blossom for the Russians.
In picture #3, instead, you can see a simplified view of everything I said here. The different colors represent, after summing up trenches (and their quality), barbed wire and anti-tank ditches, the good defensive lines that Ukraine has to stop Russia's dangerous advance on the dominant hill behind the Bychok river. This picture also represents the area southwest of Kostyantynivka.
8/🧵
Concluding the previous segment, the main lines are:
- Novoolenivka - Rusyn Yar (partly breached)
- Yablunivka - Stepanivka (the one with the most potential in my opinion)
- Oleksandro-Kalynove - Illinivka (the last before Kostyantynivka)
Though, the thing that I'm most worried about is the one in the picture: the massive empty fields with little to no fortifications and natural obstacles in between that offer no possibility of reliable defense for Ukraine with the forces they currently have in the region.
That is, if Stepanivka and its bottleneck were to be passed, the route to the Druzhkivka - Kostyantynivka highway would be downhill for Russians, as there's nothing really able to stop them.
Concluding the previous segment, the main lines are:
- Novoolenivka - Rusyn Yar (partly breached)
- Yablunivka - Stepanivka (the one with the most potential in my opinion)
- Oleksandro-Kalynove - Illinivka (the last before Kostyantynivka)
Though, the thing that I'm most worried about is the one in the picture: the massive empty fields with little to no fortifications and natural obstacles in between that offer no possibility of reliable defense for Ukraine with the forces they currently have in the region.
That is, if Stepanivka and its bottleneck were to be passed, the route to the Druzhkivka - Kostyantynivka highway would be downhill for Russians, as there's nothing really able to stop them.
9/🧵
But this problem can't be fixed easily. There has been Ukrainian digging activity recently in this region, but only some trench systems (of doubtful quality) and a couple of isolated anti-tank ditches have been dug.
And it's not possible to safely dig more in this area, exactly because of the Russian FPV upgrade, which would likely destroy the excavators involved.
And again, I would like to point out the problem of the placing of anti-drone netting. Now, the opportunity was already lost for Kostyantynivka, and if someone were to try placing them now, it would turn out to be suicidal (according to Ukrainian sources themselves).
What is possible to do, though, is immediately starting to place it on all the roads around Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk! This is even more of a priority than fortifications: soldiers can dig their own dugout in a treeline and survive there, but not if they will not get resupplied with neither food nor ammo!
Add to that the morale effect that having to have your supplies always get dropped by a drone can have on the average Ukrainian soldier, which is already demoralized, and here's the recipe for disaster!
But this problem can't be fixed easily. There has been Ukrainian digging activity recently in this region, but only some trench systems (of doubtful quality) and a couple of isolated anti-tank ditches have been dug.
And it's not possible to safely dig more in this area, exactly because of the Russian FPV upgrade, which would likely destroy the excavators involved.
And again, I would like to point out the problem of the placing of anti-drone netting. Now, the opportunity was already lost for Kostyantynivka, and if someone were to try placing them now, it would turn out to be suicidal (according to Ukrainian sources themselves).
What is possible to do, though, is immediately starting to place it on all the roads around Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk! This is even more of a priority than fortifications: soldiers can dig their own dugout in a treeline and survive there, but not if they will not get resupplied with neither food nor ammo!
Add to that the morale effect that having to have your supplies always get dropped by a drone can have on the average Ukrainian soldier, which is already demoralized, and here's the recipe for disaster!
10/🧵
I would also like to remind that the whole Toretsk agglomeration would also be in danger of operational encirclement if the Russians were to advance even 10 kilometers from Novoolenivka to Kostyantynivka, as their retreat route would likely be under almost complete Russian FPV control.
I call on Ukrainian commanders to always report the truth to the higher command, which has to accept it and move accordingly and decisively. Your decisions have a direct impact on your soldiers' morale!
I would also like to remind that the whole Toretsk agglomeration would also be in danger of operational encirclement if the Russians were to advance even 10 kilometers from Novoolenivka to Kostyantynivka, as their retreat route would likely be under almost complete Russian FPV control.
I call on Ukrainian commanders to always report the truth to the higher command, which has to accept it and move accordingly and decisively. Your decisions have a direct impact on your soldiers' morale!
11/🧵
That's it for this thread, too. Thanks for reading!
If you liked it and you learned something new here, I would really appreciate a repost and follow to help my channel grow and reach more people :)
If you are currently fighting in the Kostyantynivka thread, you can contact me directly; I am extremely interested in hearing your opinions on this matter.
Lastly, remember to join my Telegram channel: t.me/PlayfraOSINT
And as always, have a great rest of the day :p
That's it for this thread, too. Thanks for reading!
If you liked it and you learned something new here, I would really appreciate a repost and follow to help my channel grow and reach more people :)
If you are currently fighting in the Kostyantynivka thread, you can contact me directly; I am extremely interested in hearing your opinions on this matter.
Lastly, remember to join my Telegram channel: t.me/PlayfraOSINT
And as always, have a great rest of the day :p
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