1JZ Profile picture
May 24 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Counter-stealth is a bit more complicated. Stealth aircraft do have bigger RCS in VHF band, but the VHF band sacrifices angular resolution relative to X-band for the same antenna size, this is why the antenna for VHF is so big.
VHF will detect presence but not have the resolution to generate a detailed image of the object. This means that it is much easier for decoys to spoof VHF than X-band.
Detection, identification, and tracking are different tasks. VHF is good for detection but poor for identification.
The main problem comes when VHF detects something but X/C-band doesn't. You know something is there but it could be a lot of things besides a stealth aircraft.

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More from @JZ281C

May 25
My take is Korea/Japan failed to create an energy revolution so their ceiling is hard capped by their share of energy available in a fossil fuel economy.

Solar/EV is an energy revolution. This raises the ceiling of energy availability globally.
UK: Coal
US: Oil
China: Solar

Each superpower transition is associated with an energy transition.
To surpass the previous superpower you need to lead an energy revolution that unlock far greater energy availability and outgrow the previous superpower.
Read 6 tweets
May 21
India can't afford to de-dollarize because it can't run trade surplus with any of the other countries in BRICS. India's entire trade model is to earn USD via service exports/remittances from West and buy goods from the East. It can't actually afford to decouple from either side.
India doesn't need to de-dollarize, China will shut down their trade model by inflating commodities/CNY vs USD. If India wants to keep earning increasingly worthless USD that's fine, it will just buy less and less from the East as commodities inflate.
The current global trade model has a main inflation source (US) and inflation sink (China).
Read 4 tweets
Apr 6
My take is that China adopted selected internal austerity after the 1st trade war to allocate resources to priority sectors to prepare for future conflict with the US.
One of the consequences of this is that China's net exports exploded as new industrial capacity came online.
The common narrative in the West is that China is going back to export led growth. My view is that China simply took advantage of the massive COVID-era stimulus in the West and used it to deleverage its own economy while preserving state fiscal capacity for future stimulus.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 5
Question deserves a thread to answer. China's goal is to become prosperous, which means high absolute per capita consumption. Exporting to US to earn USD is means, not ends.
In the short run, when China was poor and undeveloped, generating trade surplus in USD was the most efficient way to acquire imported minerals/energy for domestic industrial development.
The problem with the USD export surplus strategy is that it is not scalable. China is simply too big relative to the US for this strategy to work in the long run for smaller countries like Korea and Japan.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 29
I'm actually pretty optimistic about future demographics in China. Young women are increasingly no longer taking marriage/children for granted. The specter of ending up old and alone is now front and center.
Many phenomena are cyclical due to the existence of negative feedback mechanisms. Marriage/birth rates collapsed due to a generation of young women that adopted unrealistic expectations while assuming that they won't end up old/alone one day.
A generation earlier, marriage/children was almost universal, so most young women simply took it for granted that they too will be married/have children one day.
Read 17 tweets
Mar 21
I think the relationship between CN/RU are often misunderstood. CN/RU are not allies, they are partners. In practice, you always need an Alpha in an alliance and RU is too strong too be Beta to anyone else.
CN/USSR alliance eventually broke down because USSR wanted to be Alpha, but CN didn't accept being Beta. US/RU/CN are each too strong to be Beta to anyone else.
CN/US both have an interest in containing RU, but neither are in a position to do so currently. Whoever devotes resources to containing RU will lose out in the bilateral competition. This is why the US is trying to pull out of Ukraine.
Read 6 tweets

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