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1JZ Profile picture
1JZ
@JZ281C
Nov 7 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
An under-discussed aspect of India's growth is how much critical imports are financed by revenues tied to the Anglosphere. While China-Russia trade is roughly 1:1 in terms of import/export, India-Russia trade is 16:1.

Service exports make up half of Indian export revenue and this is dominated by exports to the Anglosphere.
Nov 3 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
When Modi started a war in May, I initially thought he had gone crazy. Then I realized, India was always like this, even back during Nehru's time. The only reason why India doesn't attack China like Pakistan is because Mao launched the war of 1962 and won.
Oct 22 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
One of the worst things to happen to the US is the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Science/physics/math had high status in the US in the early-CW era, in the aftermath of Sputnik. The ending of the CW was anti-climatic and a victory for wordcells/ideologues rather than physicists. The victory of wordcells left the US completely unprepared for the rise of China. 2 generations of social elevation of ideologues and wordcells cannot be undone quickly.
Oct 12 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Going to engage this point seriously just for discussion purposes.

The high youth employment in China isn't because there are no jobs, it is because most young people don't have to take jobs they don't like. Someone who is looking for work, but refuses jobs that require physical labor, pays under X amount, is counted as unemployed.
Sep 23 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
There is no realistic procurement program for the IAF where it can be a match for PLA Western Theater Command over the next 20 years.

The military-industrial gap is just too large. The gap in military power will expand from here as PLA inducts 5G, 5.5G, CCA in large numbers. Raw airframe counts are misleading. A single J-20S is the equal of multiple 5G airframes like J-20 or F-35 because it has a dedicated CCA command role. CCAs can be stealthier and cheaper than manned fighters. They can be mission optimized beyond the capability of manned aircraft.
Aug 29 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
One of the least appreciated aspects of the current era is the destructive power of nuclear weapons have stagnated for the past 60 years while industrial productive capacity have skyrocketed.

The world is mentally stuck in the 1960s with regard to nuclear war. Image An industrial civilization powered by solar + possess large numbers of autonomous robotic machinery is extremely robust to nuclear war. Industrial civilization currently operate at a small fraction of its full physical productive potential due to social constraints.
Aug 18 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Building a house like this in rural China is not that expensive today. This would have been considered luxurious 15 years ago, but a 1-story house like this is on the lower end today. What makes it look fancy is the nice lighting, but LED lighting is dirt cheap today. Look at the video carefully. If you didn't have to pay for land, what is expensive about building and furnishing a house like this?
Aug 13 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Motuo power station doesn't actually restrict water flow. What it does is help pay for the massive infrastructure upgrades in the region that will come along with the construction of the power station.

asiatimes.com/2025/08/china-… The 1.2T CNY investment isn't actually that economic compared to alternatives like more solar/nuclear if the goal is to simply generate more power. The main goal is to massively upgrade infrastructure in the region and find a way to pay for it.
Aug 13 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
What if Erdogan is right? Higher rates x high government debt automatically cause higher government deficits which injects liquidity. To the extent that the government borrows to pay interest, this increases "riskfree" collateral that banks don't need to hold reserves against. $37T in debt @ 4.25% (US3M) is $1.57T ~ 5.4% of GDP. If US can sustain 2% real growth this bakes in 3.4% inflation just from interest payments.
Aug 12 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Interesting timing on Chinese breakthroughs on new laser crystals that can support 550 MW/cm2 energy density.

High altitude drones with DEW will be able to destroy satellites within line of sight. This basically invalidates SBI as a concept.

interestingengineering.com/military/world… x.com/Hurin92/status… I've been saying that he design emphasis on power generation and 3 engines on J-36 is likely to involve future DEW. These will have unlimited ammo for both self defense against AAM and also for intercepting incoming strike missiles.

Jul 19 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Russia is like a bigger Iran. Without the scale of the Soviet Union and late Cold War levels of military spending it doesn't have the resources to maintain everything it inherited from the Soviet Union. To the extent that Russia is still regarded as a major military power, it is due to the stagnation in Western military development post-CW. Many major military assets from the 1980s are still in front line service today.
May 25 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
My take is Korea/Japan failed to create an energy revolution so their ceiling is hard capped by their share of energy available in a fossil fuel economy.

Solar/EV is an energy revolution. This raises the ceiling of energy availability globally. UK: Coal
US: Oil
China: Solar

Each superpower transition is associated with an energy transition.
May 24 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Counter-stealth is a bit more complicated. Stealth aircraft do have bigger RCS in VHF band, but the VHF band sacrifices angular resolution relative to X-band for the same antenna size, this is why the antenna for VHF is so big. VHF will detect presence but not have the resolution to generate a detailed image of the object. This means that it is much easier for decoys to spoof VHF than X-band.
May 21 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
India can't afford to de-dollarize because it can't run trade surplus with any of the other countries in BRICS. India's entire trade model is to earn USD via service exports/remittances from West and buy goods from the East. It can't actually afford to decouple from either side. India doesn't need to de-dollarize, China will shut down their trade model by inflating commodities/CNY vs USD. If India wants to keep earning increasingly worthless USD that's fine, it will just buy less and less from the East as commodities inflate.
Apr 6 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
My take is that China adopted selected internal austerity after the 1st trade war to allocate resources to priority sectors to prepare for future conflict with the US. One of the consequences of this is that China's net exports exploded as new industrial capacity came online.
Apr 5 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Question deserves a thread to answer. China's goal is to become prosperous, which means high absolute per capita consumption. Exporting to US to earn USD is means, not ends. In the short run, when China was poor and undeveloped, generating trade surplus in USD was the most efficient way to acquire imported minerals/energy for domestic industrial development.
Mar 29 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
I'm actually pretty optimistic about future demographics in China. Young women are increasingly no longer taking marriage/children for granted. The specter of ending up old and alone is now front and center. Many phenomena are cyclical due to the existence of negative feedback mechanisms. Marriage/birth rates collapsed due to a generation of young women that adopted unrealistic expectations while assuming that they won't end up old/alone one day.
Mar 21 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I think the relationship between CN/RU are often misunderstood. CN/RU are not allies, they are partners. In practice, you always need an Alpha in an alliance and RU is too strong too be Beta to anyone else. CN/USSR alliance eventually broke down because USSR wanted to be Alpha, but CN didn't accept being Beta. US/RU/CN are each too strong to be Beta to anyone else.
Mar 20 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The contest between US and China is going to create power vacuum in much of the world. Neither can afford to get distracted by side quests right now. Russia can invade Ukraine, Houthis can blockade Red Sea because of this power vacuum. More and more of the world will become uninvestable for global capital because the unipolar global order is finished. Political risk will make investing abroad an increasingly unattractive proposition.
Mar 14 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
@SimonSW13 @pplsartofwar @JSnorzy @gonglei89 @blackwindmnt2 Main issue is 2025 is not 1940 or 1990. We are seeing a revolution in warfare currently similar to the gunpowder revolution. At one point firearms had to be combined with close defense weapons like Pikes to be survivable in battle. @SimonSW13 @pplsartofwar @JSnorzy @gonglei89 @blackwindmnt2 People need to remember that just 200 years ago the most effective military formations fought like this due to tech limitations of the era. Image
Mar 9 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
@TheDailyMao @ijkTA1619 @LoxDroplet @teortaxesTex No, at current SpaceX launch rates to build an ABM network in LEO would take 15 years. @TheDailyMao @ijkTA1619 @LoxDroplet @teortaxesTex LS's ZQ-3 will be available by 2025H2, so even if SS comes online, launch capacity gap will be less than 3x at most.