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Fred Krueger Profile picture
@dotkrueger
May 25 • 16 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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More from @dotkrueger

Fred Krueger Profile picture
Jun 5
In his new book, "How Countries Go Broke" Ray Dalio states the core function of banks is to "match lenders and borrowers, earning a spread".

I will add:

"That function is being completely replaced by Bitcoin and DeFi."

Banks are obsolete. 🧵
For centuries, banks served as trust brokers. They held your money, lent it out, and skimmed the spread. That worked in a world of paper, middlemen, and closed systems.

But today, trust is programmable.
Collateral is digital.
Settlement is instant.
The bank is just code. 2/N
We saw this play out first with exchanges.

Back in 2018, I told Miko Matsumura that DEXs would replace centralized exchanges.

It took a few years, but now it’s obvious: Uniswap, Raydium, Jupiter — they’ve already won.
3/N
No CEO required
Read 10 tweets
Fred Krueger Profile picture
Jun 4
8%. Thats a pretty key number.
----------------------------------

Since 2000 Global Money supply has been growing exactly at 8%. 1/N Image
Same with US Debt. Steady grower at 8% 2/N Image
If you add in dividends, The SP500 has just about matched it. After tax, of course, you lose a minimum of 25% 3/N Image
Read 5 tweets
Fred Krueger Profile picture
May 31
Something new is happening.

For the last two years, Gold and Bitcoin have decoupled from Real Interest Rates (HT @LynAldenContact) . We are witnessing a stampede into hard money, at the same time real rates soar. 1/N Image
Why now?

For the last 30 years, we have been on a steady increase in overal debt. This was funded by an increasing size of the Social Security trust, which peaked in 2020.

But now the demographics have changed. The trust is being depleted. The math is working in reverse 2/N Image
As my generation (the Boomers) start drawing down that trust, it will be a net seller of US Treasuries.

The ponzi scheme has ended. The train is not just "unstoppable", it's officially "off the tracks".

This is not just the 1970s. It's much worse. And there is a new alternative.

Hold your Bitcoin for dear life.
Read 4 tweets
Fred Krueger Profile picture
May 20
💥 THE FINAL RUN: BITCOIN TO $600,000

Timeframe: 90 days — from Monday, July 21, 2025

Starting BTC: $150,000
Ending BTC: $600,000
Final Gold: $10,400
DXY: Collapses from 96 → 68

U.S. 10Y Yield: Spikes to 9.2% before being "frozen" by the Fed

SPX: Collapses 50%

1/10
🧨 PHASE I: THE BREACH (Week 1–2)
🗓️ Monday, July 21
$200B Treasury auction is barely covered.

WSJ headline: “Treasury Buyers Missing in Action.”

Fed hints at “extraordinary measures.”

BTC: $158K → $165K in 24 hours

Gold: $4,200

2/10
🗓️ Friday, July 25
BRICS announce independent global payment rail, to settle in gold and BTC.

Powell says dollar system is “robust.”

Nobody believes him.

BTC: $180K
Gold: $4,700

3/10
Read 10 tweets
Fred Krueger Profile picture
May 20
Who owns our debt?
Mainly other countries.
And they are selling our debt.

So how is this going to unfold? 1/N Image
Let's first look at the Sovereigns. 2/N

Japan has already threatened to dump the majority of their treasuries. There are reducing. China is selling for gold. Mainland Europe is not in a position to buy more.

There really is no room to grow here. Image
Next obvious category: banks 3/N

But these are reeling from 2020. Bank of America in particular is sitting on 100 Billion of unrealized losses. There is not a lot "growth potential" there. And the numbers are small. Remember we have a 2 Trillion deficit that could easily double in a recession. These numbers are an order of magnitude lower.Image
Read 8 tweets
Fred Krueger Profile picture
Apr 27
I'm building a local AI Chief of Staff on my Mac M3 Ultra.

No cloud. No API calls.
100% private. 100% under my control.
Here’s what it will do. 🧵👇
📩 Email Management

Auto-respond to inbound emails
Carry on threaded conversations
Summarize inbox daily
Draft follow-ups and schedule meetings
🧵 Twitter/X Management

Reply to mentions + DMs
Draft tweets + threads
Schedule posts at peak times
Suggest new people to engage daily
Read 12 tweets

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