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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
May 26 ā€¢ 7 tweets ā€¢ 3 min read ā€¢ Read on X
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1) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

The lull exit is coming. Despite being in a lull:

šŸ”„1 in 180 actively infectious
šŸ”„1.9 million weekly infections
šŸ”„>93,000 new #LongCOVID cases from the week's infections
šŸ”„1,100 excess deaths from the week's infections

This is a "lull."
2) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

The forecast calls for a near-doubling in transmission the next month to 450k daily infections.

The 95% confidence interval includes flat transmission (percolating), or escalating to 650k (if NB.1.8.1 takes off). Forecasting graph, summarized in post
3) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

Looking at year-over-year transmission, 2025 (red) is closely tracking the median (gray).

It transmission accelerates, it could look more like last year (orange). If it slows, more like two years ago (yellow). Year-over-year graph summarized in post
4) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

Note that we are exiting the relative "lull" following the 10th wave in the U.S.

Let it sink in that this week's lull infections will likely result in about 1,100 deaths. Then, consider the 11th wave on the way. Current Levels for May 26, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.6% (1 in 180) New Daily Infections 266000 New Weekly Infections 1862000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 93,000 to 372,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 700 to 1,100 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 126) Average New Daily Infections 380466.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 11414000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 571,000 to 2,283,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,100 to 6,800 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 68826000 Average Number of I...
5) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

The CDC defines the vast majority of the U.S. in "low" or "very low" transmission.

This may be true in relative comparisons, but the excess deaths remain high in an absolute sense.

Monthly Covid excess deaths surpass 9/11. Heat map using CDC data
6) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

Regional data show the lull likely ending with the West already in an apparent uptick.

7) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

Find the full PMC Dashboard at

Use, edit, improve, and share anything posted. Thank you. pmc19.com/dataFull dashboard summarized in each prior post

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
May 25
1) CDC & Biobot wastewater surveillance both show the West region in an apparent uptick in C19 transmission.

Here's the graph of regional transmission from CDC data with the West in green: Estimated Percentage Actively Infectious* PMC Model Raw CDC Data National 0.6% (1 in 180) 0.5% (1 in 196) Northeast 0.4% (1 in 236) 0.4% (1 in 257) Midwest 0.5% (1 in 209) 0.4% (1 in 227) South 0.6% (1 in 160) 0.6% (1 in 175) West 0.8% (1 in 129) 0.7% (1 in 140)
2) This image zooms in on the West (green line) so you can see the apparent departure from the C19 lull more easily. Zoomed in graph from prior post. More stats in the ALT text there.
3) Biobot still provides national & regional C19 updates. They usually post sometime between Thursday morning & Saturday evening. IMO, their most recent data point can be viewed as the Wednesday of the prior week.

Like the CDC, they have an apparent uptick in the West (green). Biobot graph. What's striking is that the peak (for any region) is almost identical the past 3 waves, though the West apparently runs cooler on average. The West is presently highest and increasing, whereas the other regions are lower and still trending down at the time of these data.
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
May 20
PMC COVlD Report, May 19, 2025 (U.S.)

In this national "lull" in transmission, we are seeing...
šŸ”„A quarter-million daily infections
šŸ”„90-360k Long COVlD cases from the week's infections
šŸ”„600-1,100 deaths from the week's infections
šŸ”„LA, SD, NE, & GU in high transmission10 waves of C19
Heat map, summarized in post
Current Levels for May 19, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 185) New Daily Infections 259000 New Weekly Infections 1813000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 91,000 to 363,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 1,100 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 129) Average New Daily Infections 371566.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 11147000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 557,000 to 2,229,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,000 to 6,600 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 66986000 Average Number of I...
Year-over-year graph, currently closely tracking the median, Y4, and Y5
Full report: pmc19.com/data
PMC COVlD updates are also posted periodically on Plip Plop:

tiktok.com/@michael_hoergā€¦
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
May 15
1) Good luck getting any new federal research to support #LongCOVID until "covid" is dropped from the dirty words that get grant applications triaged to the trash bin.

You know which senator to call.

I just did, and got a staffer instead of voicemail.Lengthy list of words that get federal grants triaged to the trash bin, unfunded after favorable review, or defunded if already in progress. Includes "Covid-19," and no, it's not a matter of simply restating as "SARS2" or "The Rona." It might make it one step further in the review process, but this gets checked closed, and it will get canned. Hundreds of hours of work, flushed down the toilet. And that's the point.
2) I told the staffer that #LongCOVID is affecting millions and that no research will be funded to address this while "covid" remains on the banned word list.

I asked if they wanted to hear more. He did...

Here's the word list, btw
pen.org/banned-words-lā€¦
3) I told them about my family member who was a strong Special Forces veteran, got covid once, & according to their neurologist, it triggered #LongCOVID in the form of Dementia w/Lewy Bodies.

DLB is one of the worst conditions imaginable. After a 2yr battle, they died in 2024.
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
May 3
30 million excess deaths attributable to COVID is a tremendous underestimate because most analyses insufficiently account for mortality displacement.

In the U.S., it's about 50% worse than people realize.
Mortality displacement or "harvesting" is the idea that so many people died of COVID in the early pandemic that we should actually expect to see *fewer* deaths today if COVID were "over."
In fact, we see similar or slightly higher mortality relative to pre-pandemic levels. Despite the millions of people that have died, the mortality faucet keeps running strong. It should have slowed.
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 22
šŸ§µ1 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

šŸŒ¤ļøOnly 1 in 5 days of the pandemic have seen transmission as low as today
šŸŒ¤ļø1 in 196 actively infectious
āš”ļøBUT still 1.7 million weekly infections, resulting in >85,000 LC cases and up to 1,000 deaths

I'll walk you through it... Current Levels for Apr 21, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 196) New Daily Infections 244000 New Weekly Infections 1708000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 85,000 to 342,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 1,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 147) Average New Daily Infections 324800 New Infections During the Next Month 9744000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 487,000 to 1,949,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,500 to 5,800 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 62331000 Average Number of Infecti...
šŸ§µ2 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

We're in the 6th year. See the small red line, bottom left. Notice how closely it tracks the median (gray), year 4 (yellow), & year 5 (orange).

Acknowledging caveats, those are plausible gist-level scenarios for months ahead. year over year graph, summarized in post
šŸ§µ3 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Expect steady transmission bouncing up and down around the current national lull-level estimate the next several weeks. 200-350k daily infections nationally.

This is about as low as lulls bottom out anymore. Past 12 months and forecast, summarized in post
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 14
šŸ§µ1/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

šŸ”¹2.2 million weekly infections
šŸ”¹1 in 149 actively infectious
šŸ”¹>100,000 LC cases resulting from the week's infections
šŸ”¹>800 deaths resulting from the week's infections
šŸ”¹"Lull" transmission steady/slightly decliningCurrent Levels for Apr 14, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 149) New Daily Infections 320000 New Weekly Infections 2240000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 112,000 to 448,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 800 to 1,300 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 138) Average New Daily Infections 345366.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 10361000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 518,000 to 2,072,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,700 to 6,200 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 60891000 Average Number of ...
šŸ§µ2/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

Year-over-year transmission (red line, lower left) is tracking the median (grey), year 4 (yellow), and year 5 (orange) closely.

If that trend continues, expect steady yet bumpy transmission the next couple months, until June/July.line graphs, described in tweet
šŸ§µ3/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

The heat map shows only 4 states in the CDC 'high' level and none in the 'very' high level.

Check local data. Those timing activities to lulls may see a clear opportunity.heat map, described in tweet
Read 6 tweets

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