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May 29 • 14 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
🚨 Federal court just shut down Trump’s biggest economic weapon.

This doesn’t just kill tariffs.

It could rewrite presidential power and disrupt global trade.

Here’s what just happened and why it changes everything.

( a thread) Image
Trump’s entire second-term economic plan hinges on one core strategy: using tariffs to force the world to play by U.S. terms.

He dubbed it “Liberation Day”, a dramatic reworking of trade policy meant to bring back American manufacturing jobs and slash the federal deficit.

But a federal court just told him flat-out: You can’t do that.
Trump didn’t get Congress on board. Instead, he invoked a 1977 law , the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs on almost every major U.S. trading partner.

He argued the trade deficit, when the U.S. imports more than it exports was a national emergency that justified unilateral action.

The legal bet? That a decades-old Cold War statute could justify reshaping the entire global trading system.
That bet failed.

In a unanimous 3-0 ruling, a panel of federal trade judges, appointed by Trump, Reagan, and Obama ruled that IEEPA does not give the president the power to rewrite tax policy on imports.

In simple terms: the court said tariffs are taxes, and only Congress has the power to tax.
No matter how urgent a president claims the problem is.
Here’s why that matters. IEEPA was created to give the president emergency powers to deal with real national security threats: think seizing foreign assets during war, blocking terrorist funding, or halting cyberattacks.

It was never designed to let a president say “the economy feels off” and start rewriting trade law.

Especially not over something like the trade deficit which the U.S. has run for 49 straight years.
So what exactly are tariffs? They’re taxes that governments place on imported goods — like steel, cars, food, and electronics.

The goal can be to protect local industries, punish foreign competitors, or raise money.
But here’s what most people miss: foreign countries don’t pay them.

American companies do. And those costs? They get passed right to you, the consumer.
Trump treated tariffs like a blunt-force weapon.

He hit Canada, China, Mexico, and even allies in Europe with unilateral import taxes.
He set the rates himself.

He bypassed Congress and the list of products affected was massive everything from steel and aluminum to luxury goods, wine, and car parts.

It was a full-on trade war waged without the usual checks and balances.
The court’s decision called this exactly what it was: an overreach. They said Trump’s “Worldwide and Retaliatory Tariff Orders” had no legal basis under IEEPA.

No emergency powers justify what was essentially a rewrite of U.S. trade law.

Presidents can’t just declare “emergencies” to do what Congress won’t. That’s not how constitutional power works and the judges made that crystal clear.
Not all tariffs are gone, though. The court left in place a different category those under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

That law allows tariffs when imports are found to threaten national security.

Trump used it to impose tariffs on foreign steel, aluminum, and some auto parts but even those are under legal and political pressure and far more limited than the IEEPA-based ones.
Trump had another legal option, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. It allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days if there’s a significant trade imbalance.

But that would’ve been temporary, smaller, and subject to more oversight.

He didn’t want that. He wanted full control, fast and that’s what got struck down.
The Trump administration immediately filed an appeal. Their argument: courts can’t second-guess a president’s definition of a “national emergency.”

In their view, once the president declares one, he should have wide leeway especially in economic matters.

If that argument wins, it could expand presidential power in ways no court has ever allowed and now, all eyes are on the Supreme Court.
Will Trump win the appeal? Legal experts say: unlikely.

In recent years, the Supreme Court has taken a hard stance against presidents stretching executive authority beyond what Congress clearly allowed.

They’ve shut down sweeping environmental regulations, student loan forgiveness, and vaccine mandates. This case fits that trend: a major policy move, based on emergency powers, without clear legal backing.
The implications are enormous. This ruling won’t just define Trump’s trade agenda.

It’s about the balance of power who gets to make decisions that affect the global economy, the prices you pay, and the rules of international commerce.

And if courts stand firm, it could redraw the limits of presidential power in ways that outlast any one president. Stay tuned.
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More from @_Investinq

May 29
🚨The $7.5 TRILLION Problem No One Is Talking About

Asian countries are quietly reversing 30 years of investment in U.S. assets.

What happens when the world’s biggest buyers of U.S. debt and stocks start pulling out?

( a thread) Image
For decades, Asian economies ran a simple loop:

• Export goods to the U.S.
• Earn dollars
• Recycle them back into U.S. assets (Treasuries, stocks, bonds)

It was a massive dollar flywheel and it’s how they built up $7.5 TRILLION in U.S. investments since 1997. That wheel is now slowing. Fast.
Let’s break down how we got here. The 11 largest Asian countries led by Japan, China, Taiwan, and Singapore have built up:

• $4.7 trillion in U.S. bonds and stocks
• $3 trillion more in other U.S. investments
• Total: $7.5 trillion in exposure to the American economy.

That’s more than the GDP of Germany.
Read 19 tweets
May 26
🚨 U.S. stocks are now more expensive than nearly any time in modern history.

But here’s the real problem: U.S. households are holding more stocks than ever before.

This combo is rare and risky.

(a thread) Image
Start with valuations. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio tells us how much investors are paying for every $1 of expected profit.

Right now, the S&P 500 trades at 21Ă— forward earnings.

That means investors are paying $21 for $1 of next year’s expected earnings. The 25-year average is closer to 16×.
The Nasdaq 100, dominated by Big Tech is even more stretched at ~26Ă— forward P/E.

Historically, when investors pay this much for future profits, returns over the next 5–10 years tend to disappoint.

This isn’t just expensive, it’s top 5% expensive in history.
Read 18 tweets
May 26
🚨 A recession has never looked this obvious yet it hasn’t arrived.

The U.S. Leading Economic Index just posted a 17.3% drawdown, the worst since the 2008 crisis.

It’s signaling something rare, and potentially dangerous.

Here’s what the data is warning us.

( a thread) Image
Let’s start with the facts: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) has never fallen this far without a recession following close behind.

• Now down 17.3% from its peak
• Lower than pre-2001
• Worse than 2020
• Nearly matching 2008

This is not noise. It’s a distress signal.
What exactly is the LEI, and why does it matter? It’s a composite of 10 forward-looking economic indicators, including:

• Manufacturing new orders
• Initial jobless claims
• Credit spreads
• Building permits
• Stock market
• Yield curve slope
• Consumer expectations

Together, they model the future path of the economy and historically, they’ve been highly predictive.
Read 16 tweets
May 25
🚨 You won't believe who owns TRILLIONS in U.S. and Japanese government debt.

This video alone should terrify policymakers but hardly anyone is talking about it.

Let me break down who really owns the world's debt and what it means for your future.

( a thread)
Let’s start with the United States. As of March 2025, foreign investors hold over $9 TRILLION in U.S. government debt.

And the biggest holder?

•  Japan — $1.13 trillion
•  UK — $779 billion
•  China — $765 billion
• Cayman Islands, Canada, Luxembourg, Belgium follow but here's the catch.
Those numbers don’t always represent who’s actually investing.

They represent where the bonds are custodied, meaning stored or managed.

So when the video says “UK,” it’s often just London-based banks or funds holding for international clients. Not the UK government.
Read 17 tweets
May 23
🚨 The U.S. Job Market Is Cracking and It’s Going Global.

Mass layoffs are rising. Job growth is being revised down. These are the same signals we saw before every recent recession.

But this time, it’s not just the U.S. Let’s break down what’s happening in 2025 and why it matters🧵Image
In April 2025, U.S. employers announced 105,441 job cuts according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

That makes it the second-highest April layoff count since the 2008 Financial Crisis but it’s not just April.

Over the past 6 months, announced layoffs have totaled nearly 700,000, more than any 6-month stretch since the 2020 COVID collapse.
Layoffs at this scale typically don’t happen unless the economy is entering or is already in a recession.

This is not a normal labor cycle slowdown. It’s a rapid, synchronized pullback in hiring across sectors.

In past cycles, similar spikes occurred in 2001 (dot-com crash), 2008 (housing/credit crash), and 2020 (COVID).
Read 16 tweets
May 23
🚨 Solar Stocks Just Had Their “Lehman Moment”

Sunrun -37%, Enphase -19%, SolarEdge -25%, Sunnova? On bankruptcy watch.

All triggered by one GOP tax bill. Here’s how Trump’s new plan just torched America’s rooftop solar industry🧵 Image
The House just passed a tax bill that kills key pieces of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.

Gone:
— Residential solar tax credits
— Battery storage incentives
— Leased system benefits

All vanish by December. No phase-out, no taper, just a full stop.
These credits were originally set to last until 2031.

Now, any project must begin construction within 60 days of the bill’s passage to qualify.

That’s a near-impossible timeline for anything beyond a backyard panel install.
Read 13 tweets

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