🚨 The U.S. tried to raise $58 billion and demand came in cold.

Foreign demand hit a low, and big banks had to step up.

Here’s what happened and why it matters for everyone.

(a thread) When the U.S. government needs money (which is always), it borrows by selling promises to pay back later called Treasuries.

These are basically IOUs with interest.

In this case, it sold 3-year notes meaning the U.S. will repay buyers in 3 years, with interest.

🚨 U.S. trade deficit eased to $60.2 billion in June
.
Good news? Not so fast.

What sounds like progress is actually a red flag for the economy.

(a thread) First, what is a trade deficit? It’s when a country imports (buys from other countries) more than it exports (sells to other countries). That gap is called a deficit.

In June, the U.S. trade deficit was $60.2 billion, down from $71.7B in May.

Sounds like progress, right? Not so fast.

🚨 This is the real reason Boomers are rich and you’re not.

They caught a once-in-a-lifetime financial tailwind.

And it all starts with a boring-sounding number: the 10-Year Treasury Yield.

(a thread) Let’s start with the basics: The 10-Year Treasury Note is a loan you make to the U.S. government.

You give them money → they pay you interest every 6 months → and return the full amount after 10 years.

It's the gold standard for safe investments.

🚨 Japan’s bond market is at a tipping point.

The 10Y yield just dropped under 1.5%, right before a key auction.

If demand dries up, yields will spike and global markets, especially the US, will feel it.

(a thread) Japan’s 10-Year Government Bond (JGB) yield just fell to 1.465%.

That number matters because it’s right below the psychological level of 1.5%, where demand from big investors starts to fade.

And Japan has a major bond auction this Tuesday.

🚨 These are the key events this week (August 4–8)

From crucial economic reports to blockbuster earnings, the next five days could shake stocks, rattle bonds, and reshape the Fed’s roadmap.

Here’s everything you need to know to stay ahead.

(a thread) Monday – 09:45 ET – S&P Global Services PMI (July Final)

This index surveys over 400 U.S. service firms. July prelim was 55.2, well above the 50 line that signals expansion.

Strong demand, rising wages, and higher input prices = inflation risk the Fed can’t ignore.

🚨 Germany is sliding into a deeper mess.

GDP just shrank for the 4th time in 6 quarters.

And the kicker? U.S. policy is fanning the flames and the blowback may not stop at Germany’s borders.

(a thread) Germany’s GDP, basically the total value of goods and services it produces fell 0.1% in Q2 2025. It doesn’t sound huge, but it’s the latest hit in a long slump

• 2023: negative growth
• 2024: negative growth
• 2025: off to a bad start

That’s three years of stagnation in Europe’s largest economy

🚨 The 2-Year Treasury yield just made its biggest drop since 2024.

The bond market doesn’t move like this without a reason.

It’s the strongest signal yet that a Fed shift is coming.

(a thread) The 2-Year Treasury yield is one of the most important signals in finance.

It tells us what investors expect the Fed’s interest rate policy to look like over the next two years.

If it plunges, that usually means: “Rate cuts are coming and soon.”

🚨 The U.S. quietly bought back $2B in its own long-dated debt.

Most missed it.

But this may be the most clever and under-appreciated policy move of the year.

(Save this thread) Let’s start with the basics.

On July 31, the Treasury ran what’s called a buyback operation where it repurchases old government bonds from Wall Street.

Think of it as the Treasury cleaning up older, less popular IOUs.

🚨 U.S Job growth just collapsed in July.

Only 73,000 jobs were added in July, well below what’s needed to keep up.

But that’s just the surface, what’s underneath is even worse.

(Save this thread) Start with this: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down the prior two months by a combined –258,000 jobs.

May’s gain was cut from +144K to just +19K. June? From +147K to +14K.

That's a net loss of over a quarter million jobs from what we previously thought.

🚨 The U.S. Treasury just changed the game.

Trillions in short-term debt. Long-end buybacks. Crypto soaking up supply.

This is the quietest move toward Yield Curve Control we’ve ever seen.

(Save this thread) To fund its operations, the U.S. government borrows money by issuing Treasuries, IOUs it sells to investors. There are 3 main types:

• T-bills: Mature in under 1 year
• Notes: Mature in 2–10 years
• Bonds: Mature in 20–30 years

The longer the maturity, the more stable the debt.

🚨 Beef just hit $6.10 per pound in the U.S, a record high.

That’s over a 50% increase in 3 years.

But this isn’t just inflation, beef is one of the wildest, most overlooked economic stories of the decade.

(Save this thread) Start with this: the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it’s been since 1951.

There are fewer cows in America today than when Harry Truman was president.

How’d we get here? Two words: forced liquidation.

🚨 Inflation’s back but not like before.

Prices are up, savings are down, and consumers are squeezed.

Here’s what the PCE report really says about the economy.

(Save this thread) Let’s start with what the PCE Price Index actually is.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index measures how much Americans are actually spending on goods and services adjusting for changes in behavior.

It’s the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

🚨 The U.S. job market looks fine on paper.

Low unemployment, steady layoffs, a soft landing, right?

Then why are millions of Americans saying jobs are suddenly hard to get?

(Save this thread) The gap between Americans saying jobs are “plentiful” vs. “hard to get” just collapsed.

It’s called the labor differential and in June, it dropped to its lowest level since 2016 (excluding 2020).

This gap almost always narrows before a downturn.

🚨 U.S. GDP rose 3.0% last quarter but don’t be fooled.

The headline hides a fragile economy propped up by tariffs and a sharp drop in imports.

Here’s why the numbers don’t tell the full story.

(Save this thread) First, what is GDP? Gross Domestic Product is the total value of all goods and services produced in the country.

It’s the single most important metric for tracking economic growth.

But how it’s calculated matters just as much as the final number.

🚨 The U.S. Treasury is set to borrow $1.007 trillion in Q3 2025 and another $590 billion in Q4.

That’s nearly $1.6 trillion in just 6 months and it’s not even for new stimulus.

It’s to refill the government’s bank account.

(Save this thread) The U.S. government funds itself by issuing Treasury securities bonds, notes, and bills.

Investors buy these, giving dollars to the Treasury. In exchange, the government promises to repay them later with interest.

That’s what “borrowing” means in this context.

🚨 Margin debt just hit $1.008 trillion, the highest level in history.

That’s more leverage than at the peak of the dot-com bubble or the 2008 crash.

This is the most dangerous signal in markets right now.

(Save this thread) Margin debt is the total amount of money investors borrow from their brokers to buy stocks.

You put in $10K of your own money. You borrow another $10K from your broker.

Now you control $20K worth of stock but half of that is debt.

🚨 Key Events This Week (July 28–Aug 1)

Between the Fed decision, inflation prints, and a flood of earnings, this week could move every corner of the market.

Here’s everything you need to know to stay ready.

(Save this thread) Tuesday kicks it off with two major indicators. First: JOLTS Job Openings (10am ET)

This report tracks total job vacancies aka how desperate companies are to hire.

May saw 7.77M openings, the most since Nov 2024 but hiring is falling.

🚨 One of the biggest forces in the global economy right now isn’t just the Fed.

It’s how Scott Bessent is managing the government’s cash account.

Here’s what it is, how it works, and why it matters

(Save this thread) The U.S. government has a main bank account at the Federal Reserve.

It’s called the Treasury General Account (TGA).

Think of it as the government’s checking account. Tax payments and bond proceeds go in.
Social Security, military pay, interest, etc. go out.

🚨 Japan’s 40-year bond auction just imploded with the weakest demand since 2011.

Now the 10-year just hit 1.6%, its highest level since the global financial crisis.

Inflation, political chaos, and debt are converging.

(Save this thread) Japan held an auction for its 40-year government bonds (JGBs) on July 23.

These are ultra-long-term IOUs issued by the Japanese government to raise money. In return, investors get fixed payments for 40 years.

But this time, investors basically walked away.

🚨 The U.S. just had its 20-year bond auction and it was a blowout.

Investors lined up. Yields dropped. Demand surged.

But under the surface? A storm of debt is brewing.

(Save this thread) First off, what is a Treasury auction? It’s how the U.S. government raises money by selling bonds to investors.

You lend the U.S. money, they pay you interest.

This week, they offered 20-year bonds, meaning buyers will get fixed payments for the next two decades.

🚨 The US Treasury just dropped its June 2025 report.

Buried in the numbers: 27.5% of all government revenue last month went to interest on the debt.

Not programs. Not services. Just interest.

(Save this thread) In June 2025:

– Government revenue: $526 billion
– Government spending: $499 billion

That’s a $27 billion surplus but only on paper.

In reality, it’s a timing illusion. Key benefit payments were shifted into May because June 1 fell on a weekend.