🚨 The US just sold $70 BILLION of 5-year Treasuries.

Foreign buyers pulled back but US buyers stepped up in record size.

Dealers took their smallest cut in years.

(a thread) First, what’s a Treasury auction? The government needs money to fund spending. Instead of swiping a credit card, it issues IOUs called Treasuries.

Investors bid on them in auctions. The “price” investors demand is the interest rate called the yield.

The auction sets that yield.

Hedge funds are making their biggest bet against fear since 2022.

Nearly 93,000 contracts are stacked against the VIX.

When everyone bets on calm, that’s often when chaos hits hardest.

(a thread) The VIX is an index that tracks how volatile investors expect the stock market to be over the next 30 days.

It’s calculated from options prices (contracts people use to protect or speculate on moves in the S&P 500).

High VIX = fear. Low VIX = confidence.

🚨 Stocks are at their priciest ever compared to raw materials.

The S&P 500 vs. commodities index ratio just smashed records.

In the past, moves like this have often signaled a rotation.

(a thread) The ratio = S&P 500 ÷ Commodity Index. Stocks in the numerator, oil/metals/agriculture in the denominator.

When it rises, stocks outperform hard assets. When it falls, commodities take the lead.

It’s a scoreboard for financial vs. real assets.

🚨 Nearly 38% of Treasuries the Fed owns don’t mature for 10+ years.

Add in mortgage bonds, and almost 58% of its holdings are long-term.

This trap changes how rates, markets, and your money work.

(a thread) Before 2008, the Fed’s balance sheet was tiny under $1 trillion.

It mostly held short-term Treasuries, which are like government IOUs that come due in weeks or months.

This gave the Fed flexibility, kept risk low, and didn’t distort mortgages or 30-year borrowing costs.

We are living through the largest U.S. Treasury collapse on record.

20-year bonds are down ~38% since 2020, a 100-year record.

Even the Volcker inflation era didn’t see losses this steep.

(a thread) First, what is a Treasury?

When you buy a U.S. Treasury bond, you’re lending money to the government. They promise to pay you interest (called a coupon) and then return your money when the bond matures.

Safe, right? Except prices can swing if yields change.

🚨 Trump just did what no president has ever dared: he fired a Federal Reserve Governor.

But firing doesn’t mean removal, it’s only step one.

The courts now face the question: can a president legally pull this off?

(a thread) The Federal Reserve, America’s central bank sets interest rates, controls inflation, and helps keep jobs steady.

To shield it from politics, Fed governors serve 14-year terms. That means they don’t come and go with presidents.

They’re "supposed" to outlast political cycles.

🚨 Something strange is happening in China.

Stocks just hit a 10-year high while the economy slumps.

And the U.S. market is showing the exact same split.

(a thread) China’s economy looks weak.

Consumers are spending less. Home prices keep falling. Inflation is near zero. Inflation = how fast prices of goods and services rise. Near zero means demand is weak.

So why are stocks booming when the economy looks so fragile?

🚨 Japan’s long-term yields are going vertical.

Yields on 10Y, 20Y, 30Y, and 40Y JGBs are soaring to multi-decade highs.

This could reshape global capital flows and slam U.S. Treasuries.

(a thread) Start with the basics. A bond is a loan. You lend money to a government or company.

In return, they pay you interest over time and give you your money back at the end.

The return you earn is called the yield.

🚨 Governor Waller is the frontrunner to be the next Fed Chair.

In Dallas, he broke down the Fed’s $6.62T balance sheet.

Why it exploded, why it can’t shrink back, and what must change.

(a thread) In 2007, before the financial crisis, the Fed’s balance sheet was $870B, only 6% of U.S. GDP.

Today it stands at $6.62T, or 22% of GDP, even after falling from a nearly $9T peak in 2022.

This isn’t just growth. It is a transformation of how the Fed supports the financial system.

🚨 Buckle up: Wall Street’s biggest test of the summer is here.

Housing, confidence, GDP, jobs, inflation, and Nvidia earnings all hit in one week.

The outcome could decide whether September brings cuts or chaos.

(a thread) On Monday, we get July New Home Sales data.

This report tracks how many contracts Americans signed for new single-family homes in a month, even if the house isn’t finished.

Think of it as the housing market’s pulse, it shows demand, affordability, and consumer confidence all in one number.

🚨 The U.S. just triggered its fourth straight recession signal.

The LEI vs. CEI ratio hasn’t been this low since ‘81 and ‘08.

The last time it looked like this? Right before the economy broke.

(a thread) The Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell again in July, dipping by 0.1% to 98.7.

That might sound like a small move but the trend is what matters.

Over the past six months, the LEI has dropped 2.7%, signaling growing cracks beneath the surface.

🚨 Jerome Powell just ripped up the Fed’s old playbook.

Jobs, inflation, interest rates everything’s being redefined.

This isn’t just about tomorrow’s cut, it’s about the next decade.

(a thread) Powell began with the economy’s snapshot: “The labor market remains near maximum employment, and inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs.”

But he warned: “The balance of risks appears to be shifting.”

🚨 Trump allies are moving quickly to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

This fight isn’t just about one woman’s future at the central bank.

It’s about whether the Fed stays independent or becomes a partisan weapon

(a thread) Lisa Cook is historic: the first Black woman ever to serve on the Fed’s Board of Governors.

She’s a PhD economist from Berkeley, a Michigan State professor, and a leading scholar on innovation, growth, and barriers in finance.

Her appointment was a milestone moment.

🚨 Margin debt just hit a fresh all-time high: $1.022 trillion.

The market is on fire, but so is the leverage behind it.

This is one of the most dangerous signals in the markets right now.

( a thread) Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account.

It’s the ultimate amplifier: when markets go up, it boosts returns.

But when they fall, it magnifies the pain and triggers forced selling.

🚨 Cracks are showing in the U.S. job market.

Layoffs are rising. Continuing claims are stuck at 2021 levels.

The labor market bend is here, will it break?

(a thread) First: what are jobless claims? They’re applications for unemployment benefits. If you get laid off, you file a claim.

Every week, the government counts how many people file.

That number = the earliest red flag on the health of the labor market.

🚨 The Fed just shattered the “rate cut soon” narrative.

The Fed just admitted inflation is a bigger threat than jobs.

Cuts aren’t coming unless unemployment collapses.

(a thread) First, what are the FOMC minutes? They’re the detailed notes released three weeks after each Fed meeting.

While the statement and Powell’s press conference are polished and carefully worded, the minutes show what officials actually debated, their worries, and where they disagreed.

🚨 The U.S. just borrowed $16 billion for 20 years.

Yield came in lower than expected.

But foreign buyers are stepping back, should we be worried?

(a thread) First, what’s a Treasury bond auction? It’s how the U.S. government borrows money.

It issues IOUs (called bonds) to investors who pay cash up front.

In return, those investors get paid interest over time. At the end, they get their full principal back.

🚨 The Fed’s $2.5 TRILLION cash sponge has almost vanished.

Now the balance is down 99%, just $22B left.

This collapse could mark the most important shift in market plumbing in years.

(a thread) Think of the Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) as the Fed’s overnight parking garage for cash.

Funds drive in with dollars, the Fed hands them Treasuries as a claim ticket, and the next day they swap back with a little extra.

That extra is interest, the RRP rate.

🚨 The housing market looks like it’s booming.

Starts are surging, but permits just collapsed to their weakest since COVID.

This mismatch often signals cracks ahead in the cycle.

(a thread) The July 2025 Census Bureau data:

• Starts: 1.43M (+5.2% MoM, +12.9% YoY)
• Permits: 1.35M (–2.8% MoM, –5.7% YoY)
• Completions: 1.42M (+6.0% MoM, –13.5% YoY)

That’s a market digging hard today, but starving its own future.

🚨 Japan’s 20-year bond yield just surged to 2.61%.

Why? A brutal government auction just shook the market.

Here’s what happened, why it spooked investors, and why it could ripple far beyond Japan.

( a thread) Japan just tried to auction off a batch of 20-year government bonds, long-term IOUs that promise to pay investors interest for lending money to the government.

But demand was weak.

The result? Yields surged and in the bond world, spiking yields = panic mode.

Office vacancies just hit 20.7%, a new U.S. record.

Landlords are walking. Cities are losing tax revenue.

And yet, Wall Street shrugs like nothing’s wrong.

( a thread) Office vacancy rates in the U.S. are now at record highs, crossing 20.7% in Q2 2025. That means 1 in 5 offices is sitting empty.

This isn’t just a big city problem, it’s happening across the board.

But office is only one piece of the puzzle.