Small businesses are the backbone of America.

There are nearly 35 million of them compared to fewer than 20,000 big corporations.

They’re responsible for almost 80% of all job openings in the country.

But that engine is slowing down fast.

(a thread) In September, small business job openings fell to the lowest level since the 2020 crisis.

That’s one of the most reliable early warning signs for higher unemployment.

When small firms stop hiring, it usually means business is slowing and layoffs are coming next.

A generational crisis is brewing.

The AI boom is consuming power faster than the grid can keep up.

By 2028, U.S. data centers could use 6.7%–12% of America’s electricity enough to power 24 million homes.

We taught machines to think, but forgot how to keep the lights on

(a thread) Every AI model, image, and chatbot reply burns electricity.

Data centers are now the new factories, massive, unrelenting, and always on.

The problem is simple: we built infinite digital demand on top of a physical grid that was never designed to handle it.

After a chaotic Friday of 100% tariff threats and market turmoil, China finally responds.

Beijing defends its rare earth export curbs as “legitimate".

And now, the Trump–Xi meeting later this month hangs in the balance.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) MOFCOM said the measures were designed “to better defend world peace and regional stability, and to fulfill non-proliferation and other international obligations.”

It emphasized that China, “as a responsible major country,” is refining its export control system under law to safeguard national and international security.

What just happened?

At 3:00 PM ET, President Trump confirmed a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1st, alongside export controls on “any and all critical software.”

Within minutes, the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, erasing over $1.5 TRILLION in market value as panic spread.

(a thread) This came during one of the most fragile weeks of the year.

The U.S. government shutdown continues, mass federal layoffs began, and liquidity across markets has been thinning fast.

Trump had earlier warned that “China is becoming very hostile,” hinting at “massive tariff increases.”

This is BEYOND insane:

Billions just have vanished overnight.

Auto-parts giant First Brands just went bankrupt and no one knows where the money went.

It borrowed using the same assets over and over, now no one knows who owns what.

(a thread) First Brands wasn’t small. It supplied parts to Walmart, AutoZone, and O’Reilly.

On paper it had $5.8B in loans but hidden under that were billions more in off-balance-sheet debt.

By the time it collapsed, the real number was closer to $12B, maybe higher.

America is in the middle of a massive construction shift.

Over $40 billion worth of data centers are being built right now, up 400% since 2022.

For the first time ever, data centers being built will outnumber office buildings.

(a thread) Office towers are collapsing as a business model.

Construction has dropped by nearly 50%, vacancies hit 20%, and values are down almost 40%.

Developers aren’t building office space anymore, they’re building compute space.

The Fed’s “safe cash” parking lot is almost empty.

Reverse Repo usage has plunged to $4.6 billion, the lowest since April 2021.

That’s down 99.8% from over $2.5 trillion at the peak, marking a major shift in U.S. liquidity.

(a thread) The Reverse Repo Facility is the Fed’s overnight parking lot for cash.

Money market funds lend dollars to the Fed, receive Treasuries as collateral, and earn interest.

It’s Wall Street’s version of a risk-free savings account that anchors short-term borrowing rates.

Gold just broke $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever.

The US government is shut down, France is in political turmoil, Japan is changing leadership.

When every major power is in chaos, gold is the only thing investors still trust.

(a thread) The shutdown is now in week two and Washington’s gone silent.

No jobs data, no CPI, no Treasury reports, the Fed is flying blind.

Prediction markets now see it lasting about 21 days, likely tying the 2nd-longest ever, as faith in government data quietly fades.

The AI boom looks unstoppable, but most of it is powered by creative financing.

Every historic deal you see is just another layer of circular money.

Stocks jump, valuations rise, and nobody asks where the cash actually is.

It’s the kind of illusion that unravels fast once the money stops moving.

(a thread) AMD and OpenAI are the latest example.

A multi-billion-dollar deal to deploy AMD’s MI450 chips in 2026, sounds massive, right?

Except OpenAI isn’t actually paying upfront.

The deal’s structure is where things get interesting.

Japan just shocked the world.

Sanae Takaichi is now Prime Minister, Japan’s first-ever female leader and she’s coming in swinging with huge stimulus plans.

Markets are ripping and investors everywhere are bracing for what comes next.

(a thread) Japan’s Nikkei 225 just hit a record high of 47,717, surging +4.26% in a single day.

Investors are piling into Japan on expectations of massive stimulus, new tech subsidies, and defense spending under PM Takaichi.

This rally cements Japan as Asia’s top-performing market this quarter.

The Fed’s job just got a little harder.

Initial jobless claims fell back to 218k, close to year-to-date lows.

At the same time, Q2 GDP was revised up again to 3.8%.

Stable labor, hot growth, sticky inflation. Cuts are getting harder to justify.

(a thread) Let’s start with the labor market.

Initial claims for unemployment dropped to 218k last week, basically wiping away the Texas-driven surge that sent them to 4-year highs.

Continuing claims are around 1.93m, but steady.

This is not what a “breaking” jobs market looks like.

For the first 11 months of FY2025, the U.S. deficit has already hit $1.97 trillion.

That’s the 3rd-largest in history and the year isn’t even over yet.

Here’s why this matters and how it sets up the biggest debt crisis in decades.

(a thread) A budget deficit means Washington is spending more than it collects in taxes.

At $1.97T, the gap is almost as large as the entire economies of countries like South Korea or Canada.

August alone saw a $345B shortfall, equal to nearly 7% of GDP.

That level hasn’t been seen since WWII, far above anything from the 1950s through the 1990s.

Heavy truck sales are tanking like the U.S. is already in recession.

Historically, every major economic downturn has been preceded by a slump in heavy trucks.

The latest drop suggests we may already be on that path again.

Let us explain: (a thread) Heavy trucks are the backbone of American industry. They haul food, steel, machinery, and consumer goods.

When companies are confident in growth, they buy more trucks.

When they’re pulling back, it’s because they expect less to ship and build.

The Fed just quietly admitted we’re in stagflation-lite.

Powell said it best: "Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside, a challenging situation."

The economy is stuck between jobs slipping and inflation holding.

(a thread) That’s why today’s move was framed as a “risk-management cut.”

Powell stressed the Fed is easing early to hedge against labor weakness before it spirals, not reacting to collapse.

When they use this phrase, it means balancing the dual mandate of jobs and prices.

🚨 Everyone thinks the Fed will slash rates and housing will magically become affordable.

But Morgan Stanley says the affordability crisis isn’t just about rates.

it’s built into the system, and cuts alone won’t save us.

(a thread) Here’s the issue: the average U.S. homeowner has a mortgage at just 4.1%.

Today’s new mortgage rate is closer to 6.5%. That’s a huge gap.

If you already have a cheap loan, why would you sell your house and take on a much more expensive one? Most people won’t.

🚨 The Fed takes center stage with rate cuts this week.

Retail sales, industrial production, and jobs will reveal if the economy is holding up.

Here is everything you need to know for this upcoming week.

(a thread) Retail Sales hit Tuesday at 8:30 ET.

This report tracks consumer spending at stores, online, and restaurants. Headline covers all sales,

Core excludes autos and gas, and Control removes even more volatile categories like restaurants and building materials to show steady spending.

Ever wondered why BLS data feels so inaccurate?

It’s not just bad surveys.

Over a third of CPI is no longer measured, it’s guessed.

(a thread) There are three main methods BLS uses in the CPI Commodities & Services survey:

– Home cell: use the same item in the same area (best case).
– Different cell: use another region or a similar product (riskier).
– Carry forward: repeat last month’s price (weakest).

Accuracy drops as you move down.

The August PPI just slipped into deflation: -0.1% MoM, cooling YoY to +2.6%.

It’s only the second monthly drop in the past 17 months.

But here’s the real question, can you actually trust how this data is collected?

(a thread) The PPI measures “factory door inflation.”

That means it tracks the prices producers receive for goods and services before they reach you as a consumer.

By contrast, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures what you actually pay at checkout.

🚨 The US just wiped out -911,000 jobs in one revision.

That’s 76,000 jobs per month that were never real.

Even worse than the Great Recession’s revisions in 2009.

(a thread) Every month, the government publishes payroll numbers using a survey called the Current Employment Statistics (CES).

It’s fast, widely watched, and often drives markets but surveys can be wrong.

Later, the government compares them to actual tax filings.

Europe’s second-largest economy just plunged into chaos.

For the second time in under a year, France’s government has collapsed.

Macron is now the first president since 1953 to suffer two collapses in 12 months.

(a thread) Prime Minister François Bayrou was toppled after losing a no-confidence vote 364–194.

In France, if 280 or more lawmakers vote “no confidence,” the government falls.

Bayrou’s crime? A €44B savings plan with tax hikes, a spending freeze, and scrapping two public holidays. He lasted only 9 months.

🚨 Tomorrow's job revisions could change everything.

Goldman expects 550k to 950k jobs erased, the biggest cut in 15 years.

Here’s why this matters more than you think.

(a thread) What is a benchmark revision? Each month, the BLS estimates job growth by surveying ~122,000 businesses.

But surveys have limits, response rates have fallen to 43% in 2025 from 61% in 2016.

Once a year, the BLS “anchors” those estimates to harder data.