Here's the latest variant picture for my new " Global - Other" report, to mid-May.
The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is clearly dominant at 43%.
The XFG.* variant is another challenger, growing to 9%.
#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG
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This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
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For the "Global - Other" countries, the XFG.* variant is showing a marginal growth advantage of 0.4% per day (3% per week) over the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant. Any crossover looks distant.
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The first reported wave of NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was in Hong Kong, rising to 100% frequency. It has also shown sustained growth in other countries across the region.
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The highest frequencies of XFG.* have been reported from Bahrain, India and Pakistan, up to 57%.
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Singapore, Japan and Brazil have shared the most sample data recently. China is well down the list, especially considering its large size and relative wealth.
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XFP is the latest recombinant variant to be classified and incredibly it is the third of a recent set of recombinants with identical spike mutations. The earlier ones were XFJ and XFM.
I think of them as the "Doppelgängers".
#COVID19 #XFJ #XFM #XFP #Doppelgängers
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Note "Doppelgänger" is not an agreed variant nickname, nor should it be. There doesn’t seem to be anything stopping other sets of variants or recombinants from ending up the same way, as multiple Doppelgänger packs.
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Also note their non-Spike mutations do vary. But the Spike proteins of SARS-CoV-2 are the focus of much study and explain the success of most variants.
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early May.
The LP.8.1.* variant continued to fall, down to 35%.
The next challenger is XFG.*, which grew strongly to 19%.
#COVID19 #USA #LP_8_1 #XFG #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
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For the US, the XFG.* variant shows a strong and accelerating growth advantage of 6.4% per day (45% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which now predicts a crossover in late-May (the data routinely lags).
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XFG.* had mainly been reported from New York state, rising to 27% frequency. It has also been very common among the International Traveller samples. It rose in Vermont to 20%.
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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-May.
The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant has grown strongly to take over dominance at 27%.
The LP.8.1.* variant has fallen to around 27%.
The XFG.* variant grew to 12%.
#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #LP_8_1 #XFG
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Following the declaration by the WHO of NB.1.8.1 as a Variant Under Monitoring and as Nextstrain Clade 25B, I have separated that variant and its descendants into a new “L2” group, shown in Sky Blue.
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Globally, the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is showing a strong growth advantage of 6.3% per day (44% per week) over the LP.8.1.* variant, with a crossover in mid- May.
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Reported Cases have continued to rise sharply at the national level and in most states & territories, with the 7-day average doubling in the last 2 weeks.
#COVID19 #Australia
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The last time 800 cases/day were reported nationally was in late January, on the downslope of the XEC wave. The peak of this wave has not been reached.
As always, it is hard to be certain with this series; the data quality is very shoddy and the raw data is incredibly spiky.
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Reported cases are continuing to grow strongly in NSW, with the Reff (case momentum) fairly steady between 1.2 and 1.3, so sustained exponential growth.
The prior wave (XEC in January) in NSW peaked at around 410/day, which looks within reach for this wave.
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My work was used in a recent piece for The Conversation: "There’s a new COVID variant driving up infections. A virologist explains what to know about NB.1.8.1".
The links in the paragraph starting "Genomic sequencing has confirmed NB.1.8.1 …" point to my report for Australia, from my regular variant analysis. I update that and my similar reports for other countries and regions weekly.
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I didn’t get named as a contributor, which is a little disappointing, but seems to be typical for this outlet. IAC it’s good to see my work is useful.
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