1/ Today's Ukrainian drone attack on Russian air bases was launched using drones concealed in shipping containers. It shows that Ukraine has managed to weaponise the global logistics system, and will alarm security planners worldwide. ⬇️
2/ Video from the scene of the attacks shows drones flying out from the top of a standard 20 ft shipping container. Photos released by the Ukrainians show that the drones were concealed in hidden compartments, with the roofs likely ejected explosively.
3/ It's not clear how they were controlled, but judging from the fact that pictures seem to have got back to Ukraine in real time, some kind of satellite control - perhaps through a relay in the containers - seems likely.
4/ The drivers of the trucks carrying the containers seem to have been unaware of their cargoes. It's likely that they were ordinary commercial truck drivers who had taken contracts to deliver the containers to specific places across Russia by approximately the same time.
5/ The containers were clearly assembled outside Russia, most likely in Ukraine, and then shipped across borders - possibly via Georgia or Central Asia - to their targets. This isn't the first time that Ukraine has used this method.
6/ On 8 October 2022, the Kerch Bridge was badly damaged by a massive bomb concealed inside a trailer hauled by a Russian truck. It had been shipped from Odesa via Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia, as this thread details.
7/ Armenia and the Central Asian states are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led customs union. Customs checks are done at the EEU border, which provides a back door into Russia for many kinds of smuggled goods.
8/ Alternatively, it's possible that the containers could have been shipped directly into Russia, as there's plenty of possibilities for doing so in the Baltic or the Far East. Either way, they were not detected when they entered Russian or while they were en route.
9/ Russian freight haulers receive delivery orders via websites such as ATI. The one below was for the cargo which blew up on the Kerch Bridge in October 2022. It's likely that the delivery of the drone containers was arranged similarly.
10/ It's unsurprising that the drones weren't detected. In 2024, Russia's container market stood at 6.4 million TEUs - in other words, the equivalent of 6.4 million 20-foot containers. It's physically impossible to check those sorts of numbers.
11/ This is, of course, a nightmare scenario for security planners worldwide. Approximately 866 million TEUs were shipped worldwide in 2024 alone. As Ukraine has just shown, any of them could contain drones or explosives that can be delivered to any sensitive target. /end
1/ Why does the Russian government appear to be so clueless about the role Telegram plays in military communications? The answer, one warblogger suggests, is that the military leadership doesn't want to admit its failure to provide its own reliable communications solutions. ⬇️
2/ Recent claims by high-ranking officials that Telegram isn't relevant to military communications have prompted howls of outrage and detailed rebuttals from Russian warbloggers, but have also pointed to a deeper problem about what reliance on Telegram (and Starlink) represents.
3/ In both cases, the Russian military has failed abysmally to provide workable solutions. Telegram and Starlink were both adopted so widely because the 'official' alternatives (military messngers and the Yamal satellite constellation) are slow, unreliable and lack key features.
1/ Telegram is deeply embedded into Russian military units' internal communications, providing functionality that MAX, the Russian government's authorised app, doesn't have. A commentary highlights the vast gap that is being opened up by the government's blocking of Telegram. ⬇️
2/ The Two Majors Charitable Foundation writes that without Telegram, information exchange, skills transfer, and moral mobilisation work within the Russian army will be crippled:
3/ "I'd really like to add that for a long time, we've been gathering specialized groups in closed chats, including those focused on engineering and UAVs, to share experiences and build a knowledge base. Almost everyone there is a frontline engineer.
1/ Russia's Federal Customs Service is seeking to prosecute Russian volunteers who are importing reconnaissance drones from China to give to frontline troops. It's the latest chapter in a saga of bureaucratic obstruction that is blocking vital supplies to the Russian army. ⬇️
2/ Much of the army's equipment, and many of its drones, are purchased with private money by volunteer supporters or the soldiers themselves. High-tech equipment such as drones and communications equipment is purchased in China or Central Asia and imported into Russia.
3/ However, the Federal Customs Service has been a major blocker. Increased customs checks on the borders have meant that cargo trucks have suffered delays of days or even weeks, drastically slowing the provision of essential supplies for the Russian army.
1/ Leaked casualty figures from an elite Russian special forces brigade indicate that it has suffered huge losses in Ukraine, equivalent to more than half of its entire roster of personnel. Scores of men are listed as being 'unaccounted for', in other words having deserted. ⬇️
2/ The 10th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade (military unit 51532) is a special forces (spetsnaz) unit under the GRU. It is a 2002 refoundation by Russia of a Soviet-era spetsnaz unit that, ironically, passed to Ukraine when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991.
3/ Since the invasion of February 2022, the brigade has been fighting on the Kherson front, which has seen constant and extremely bloody fighting over the islands in the Dnipro river and delta. Russian sources have reported very high casualties.
1/ Russian warbloggers are continuing to provide examples of how Telegram is used for frontline battlefield communications, to refute the claim of presidential spokesman Dmitri Peskov that such a thing is "not possible to imagine". ⬇️
2/ Platon Mamadov provides two detailed examples:
"Example number one:
Aerial reconnaissance of Unit N spotted a Ukrainian self-propelled gun in a shelter in the middle of town N."
3/ "Five minutes after the discovery, the target's coordinates and a detailed video were uploaded to a special secret chat group read by all drone operators, scouts, and artillerymen in that sector of the front.
1/ The Russian army faces a crisis with obtaining aid for its soldiers, who are dependent on volunteers to provide them with everything from socks to Starlink terminals. Russian warbloggers say that the blocking of Telegram will wreck voluntary assistance efforts. ⬇️
2/ 'It's time ZOV to go home' writes:
"Since 2022, Telegram has become the primary source of funds for the front. Numerous units and volunteers have created their own channels."
3/ "This has enabled us to address a colossal number of issues that needed to be addressed right then and there. It's impossible otherwise: when a fundraising campaign begins, it means the fundraising item was needed yesterday, and there's no time to waste.