1/ Today's Ukrainian drone attack on Russian air bases was launched using drones concealed in shipping containers. It shows that Ukraine has managed to weaponise the global logistics system, and will alarm security planners worldwide. ⬇️
2/ Video from the scene of the attacks shows drones flying out from the top of a standard 20 ft shipping container. Photos released by the Ukrainians show that the drones were concealed in hidden compartments, with the roofs likely ejected explosively.
3/ It's not clear how they were controlled, but judging from the fact that pictures seem to have got back to Ukraine in real time, some kind of satellite control - perhaps through a relay in the containers - seems likely.
4/ The drivers of the trucks carrying the containers seem to have been unaware of their cargoes. It's likely that they were ordinary commercial truck drivers who had taken contracts to deliver the containers to specific places across Russia by approximately the same time.
5/ The containers were clearly assembled outside Russia, most likely in Ukraine, and then shipped across borders - possibly via Georgia or Central Asia - to their targets. This isn't the first time that Ukraine has used this method.
6/ On 8 October 2022, the Kerch Bridge was badly damaged by a massive bomb concealed inside a trailer hauled by a Russian truck. It had been shipped from Odesa via Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia, as this thread details.
7/ Armenia and the Central Asian states are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led customs union. Customs checks are done at the EEU border, which provides a back door into Russia for many kinds of smuggled goods.
8/ Alternatively, it's possible that the containers could have been shipped directly into Russia, as there's plenty of possibilities for doing so in the Baltic or the Far East. Either way, they were not detected when they entered Russian or while they were en route.
9/ Russian freight haulers receive delivery orders via websites such as ATI. The one below was for the cargo which blew up on the Kerch Bridge in October 2022. It's likely that the delivery of the drone containers was arranged similarly.
10/ It's unsurprising that the drones weren't detected. In 2024, Russia's container market stood at 6.4 million TEUs - in other words, the equivalent of 6.4 million 20-foot containers. It's physically impossible to check those sorts of numbers.
11/ This is, of course, a nightmare scenario for security planners worldwide. Approximately 866 million TEUs were shipped worldwide in 2024 alone. As Ukraine has just shown, any of them could contain drones or explosives that can be delivered to any sensitive target. /end
1/ Russia's former chief doctor Gennady Onishchenko says that the current fuel crisis is positively beneficial for Russia: it's making the air cleaner, and city residents are becoming fitter by being deprived of their cars. Russian commentators are wondering what he's smoking. ⬇️
2/ The comments were made by Onishchenko, an academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview on Friday with the Moscow Speaks radio station:
3/ "We even stopped walking to the neighbouring [building] entrance and started driving in cars. If we talk about Moscow, it's much more sensible to give up cars. Most people can easily and comfortably ride the metro, and leave cars for trips outside the city.
1/ A Russian general has been arrested by a military court after being accused of 'selling' nearly 90 soldiers to a mercenary leader who is accused of extortion, kidnapping, arms trafficking, torture, and murder. Lt Gen Alexander Dembitsky denies the accusations. ⬇️
2/ The case involves Alexey Marushchenko, the head of the 'Yastreb' private military company, which fought in Ukraine. Yastreb's recruiters are said to have promised those who wished to enlish for military service that they would fight with Yastreb, rather than the regular army.
3/ The prospective contract soldiers were required to pay up front for this privilege. However, Russian criminal investigators found that Yastreb pocketed the recruits' money and they were sent straight to regular military units without any opportunity to serve with Yastreb.
1/ An infamous Russian 'butcher commander' accused of sending his subordinates to their deaths to cover up his own drug-dealing has been promoted to command the 114th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. His many critics aren't impressed by this apparent favouritism. ⬇️
2/ Colonel Igor Puzik, callsign 'Evil,' gained notoriety in 2024 after two drone operators with the callsigns 'Goodwin' and 'Ernest' publicly accused Puzik of drug trafficking in a social media video. He sent them to their deaths in an infantry assault a few days later.
3/ The practice of deliberately killing unwanted subordinates by sending them on suicide missions has since been dubbed 'Puzikism' by Russian warbloggers. Despite their criticism and an official investigation, Puzik seems to have prospered under his superiors' protection.
1/ Soaring fuel prices in Russia are providing an unparalleled opportunity to make a quick profit through price gouging, artificial scarcity, and corruption. A Russian warblogger highlights how gas station owners and operators are exploiting the crisis. ⬇️
2/ The Russian 'Kovpak's Detachment' Telegram channel writes:
"In the case of absolutely any shortage, tension in society is created by those who want to make money on it."
3/ "In the case of fuel – gas station owners and various scum, who, with the tacit permission (obviously, not for free) of the gas station management, hang around them.
1/ Russia's deal with India to supply fuel to alleviate the current shortages involves the Indians selling fuel refined from discounted Russian oil back to Russia at full market prices. As warblogger Yuri Baranchik points out, this is extraordinarily bad value for Russia. ⬇️
2/ Baranchik grumbles:
"Well, gentlemen, it's happened: we're witnessing the birth of a new economic reality, which can safely be called "a cycle of enrichment for the Indian oil refining sector at the expense of the Russian budget and the patience of its citizens."
3/ "Look at the elegant business model that's emerging. We're pumping crude oil to India. A lot, a record amount, sometimes as much as 2.7 million barrels per day. Naturally, we're pumping it at that legendary discount that's become the talk of the town.
1/ Russian warbloggers are warning that despite growing indications of a planned second mobilisation after the Russian legislative elections in September 2026, there are major unresolved practical problems in actually carrying out a new mobilisation. ⬇️
2/ Yesterday the warblogger Vladimir Romanov commented on a rumoured plan to mobilise 1.2 million Russian men in the fall. In response, 'Ghost of Novorossiya' writes:
3/ "It's difficult to comment seriously on rumours, but discussions regarding the likelihood of a second mobilisation have long since transcended the realm of speculation.