ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Jun 1, 2025 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/ Today's Ukrainian drone attack on Russian air bases was launched using drones concealed in shipping containers. It shows that Ukraine has managed to weaponise the global logistics system, and will alarm security planners worldwide. ⬇️
2/ Video from the scene of the attacks shows drones flying out from the top of a standard 20 ft shipping container. Photos released by the Ukrainians show that the drones were concealed in hidden compartments, with the roofs likely ejected explosively. Image
Image
3/ It's not clear how they were controlled, but judging from the fact that pictures seem to have got back to Ukraine in real time, some kind of satellite control - perhaps through a relay in the containers - seems likely.
4/ The drivers of the trucks carrying the containers seem to have been unaware of their cargoes. It's likely that they were ordinary commercial truck drivers who had taken contracts to deliver the containers to specific places across Russia by approximately the same time.
5/ The containers were clearly assembled outside Russia, most likely in Ukraine, and then shipped across borders - possibly via Georgia or Central Asia - to their targets. This isn't the first time that Ukraine has used this method.
6/ On 8 October 2022, the Kerch Bridge was badly damaged by a massive bomb concealed inside a trailer hauled by a Russian truck. It had been shipped from Odesa via Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia, as this thread details.
7/ Armenia and the Central Asian states are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led customs union. Customs checks are done at the EEU border, which provides a back door into Russia for many kinds of smuggled goods. Image
8/ Alternatively, it's possible that the containers could have been shipped directly into Russia, as there's plenty of possibilities for doing so in the Baltic or the Far East. Either way, they were not detected when they entered Russian or while they were en route.
9/ Russian freight haulers receive delivery orders via websites such as ATI. The one below was for the cargo which blew up on the Kerch Bridge in October 2022. It's likely that the delivery of the drone containers was arranged similarly. Image
10/ It's unsurprising that the drones weren't detected. In 2024, Russia's container market stood at 6.4 million TEUs - in other words, the equivalent of 6.4 million 20-foot containers. It's physically impossible to check those sorts of numbers.
11/ This is, of course, a nightmare scenario for security planners worldwide. Approximately 866 million TEUs were shipped worldwide in 2024 alone. As Ukraine has just shown, any of them could contain drones or explosives that can be delivered to any sensitive target. /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

May 22
1/ The Ukraine war is deadlocked, writes the imprisoned Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. He warns that Russia's current tactics are ineffective and Ukraine's intensifying drone strikes on the Russian rear may be leading up to a new counter-offensive. ⬇️ AI-edited image of Igor Girkin with a chess board
2/ Girkin, who has been a constant critic of the Russian military's strategy, observes:

"THERE'S A COMPLETE DEADLOCK ON THE FRONT. The summer campaign is beginning as incoherently as the winter-spring campaign ended."
3/ "Push-pull back and forth" isn't something that can lead us even to such a limited (and strategically senseless) goal as the complete liberation of the entire Donbas (DPR), much less the complete liberation of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions—…
Read 12 tweets
May 22
1/ With the war in Ukraine locked in a stalemate and Russia casualties growing, Russian warbloggers are divided between advocating a full mobilisation or calling for the front lines to be frozen. Oleg Tsarev advocates ending the war and declaring victory to save Russian lives. ⬇️ Image
2/ Tsarev, a fugitive Ukrainian-Russian politician now living in Russia, says that Russia has already achieved as much as it's likely to with the conquest of 'Novorossiya', and the war should be ended now with a declaration of victory so that no more Russians need to die:
3/ "It's bad when a person falls into a psychological trap they create for themselves. Psychologists call this a cognitive trap: when faced with a difficult situation, a person doesn't ask for help to avoid appearing weak.
Read 21 tweets
May 22
1/ Russia's demographic crisis is worsening sharply, as its villages empty out and birth rates slump. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have died in the war in Ukraine and at least a million more have fled the country, with no respite in sight for its dwindling population. ⬇️ Image
2/ Russian political scientist Yuri Baranchik writes on his Telegram channel:

"Villages are dying: the outflow of young people has led to record-low birth rates."
3/ "A demographic alarm is sounding. The birth rate in Russian villages has hit rock bottom—a 35-year low. Rosstat recorded a fertility rate of 1.464. For reference, to avoid population decline, a fertility rate of at least 2 is needed.
Read 6 tweets
May 21
1/ Even as sales of consumer cars plummet in Russia, the country's super-wealthy oligarchs are importing record numbers of sanctions-busting luxury cars from the West. It's another sign of how the Russian elite are profiting even as the population suffers. ⬇️ Image
Image
Image
2/ As recently reported, the combined wealth of Russia's 155 richest people has risen by a record amount over the last year even as the economy as a whole has suffered. This is reflected in their conspicuous consumption, especially on luxury vehicles.
3/ The Russian Telegram channel 'Political Report' notes:

"Sales of new luxury vehicles reached 81 units in April—the highest level in 4.5 years. The Rolls-Royce Cullinan led the way with 21 units sold, while the Lamborghini Urus and Bentley Continental also made the top three."
Read 19 tweets
May 21
1/ Russian warblogger Lev Vershinin wonders how Russia has managed to revert to 18th century standards of brutal military discipline, as seen in this video. How did it "become so savage in just one generation?", he asks. ⬇️
2/ The video shows a commander (almost certainly Russian, despite Vershinin's disingenuous uncertainty in the post below) savagely beating several men. They have apparently retreated ("rolled back") without authorisation from a mission or frontline position.
3/ “I came across some front-line footage. Not AI. But I don’t know which side it was filmed on. Neither the Russian language nor the swearing mean anything, because the war is essentially a civil one. So, it could be both.
Read 8 tweets
May 21
1/ A Russian soldier says that he and his comrades were told by their commander that "a single shell is worth more than all your lives". The men were sent on suicidal missions without artillery support, without supplies, and had to scavenge for weapons on the battlefield. ⬇️
2/ In a video explaining his decision to desert from the Russian army's 144th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade (military unit 11739), 36-year-old Anton Aleksandrovich Shirshin describes his commanders as brutal and corrupt.
3/ He was forced to join the army after being blamed for a traffic accident. The police offered him a choice between imprisonment followed by being conscripted to join the army, or joining the army voluntarily. He chose the latter option.
Read 15 tweets

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