Thread by @SamRamani2

Russian Telegram channels are presenting a wide range of narratives about Ukraine's drone attack

Here are some of the key narratives to watch /THREAD

The key narrative is that Ukraine did this before Istanbul to sabotage the peace talks

Basically, it is aimed at provoking Putin into a harsh response and Ukraine rallying the US to firmly support the anti-Russian agenda /1

This argument is being paired with uncharacteristic calls for restraint even from hardline ultranationalists

Sergey Markov for instance is warning against tactical nuclear weapons use, as destroying Russian populations in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa would benefit Zelensky /2

There are also investigations into the internal failures that precipitated this attack

Chelyabinsk is getting attention, were people assembling drones for the Russian military there unwittingly helping Ukraine's attack? /3

There are also efforts to downplay the losses, Oleg Tsaryov is leading the charge

But there are candid discussions about financial costs, how a $600 FPV drone could destroy a $100 million nuclear capable jet was noted by Tsaryov /4

Moreover, there are warnings about Russia's inability to replenish lost jets within its nuclear triad through new production

I'm yet to see the intense personal attacks on Russian commanders that preceded Prigozhin's death but the critical spirit is alive and well /5

The Russian Defence Ministry is typically trying to spin something positive out of this

Repelled attacks on Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur, no casualties from fires are in their statement

Nonetheless, the phrase "terrorism" lingers /6

There isn't a clear consensus on what Russia's escalation options should be which reflects the mood of shock

Russia will likely try to play up Ukraine's unilateral action to drive a wedge with the US and strike Ukrainian civilian targets /END