Thread by @P_Kallioniemi

In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll discuss the Ukrainian SBU’s “Spiderweb” operation and the main disinformation narrative vatniks have been spreading during the afterfall. While domestic Russian media stays silent, the vatniks and Russian milbloggers have been extremely loud.

1/20

This operation was probably the most impactful strike since the drowning of the Moskva, massively reducing Russia’s capability to bomb Ukrainian cities (or anyone else’s). It involved smuggling 117 FPV drones hidden in trucks into Russia. Once near airbases,…

2/20

…the roofs opened remotely, launching drones in synchronized waves to strike targets up to 4,000 km away. The mission took 18 months to plan. The unsuspecting Russian truck drivers who transported them had no idea they were delivering weapons deep behind their own lines.

3/20

According to Ukraine, the daring drone strike deep into Russia destroyed or damaged 41 military aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers, and A-50 AWACS planes. The attack reportedly eliminated a significant part of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet.

4/20

Russia hasn’t built new Tu-95 or Tu-22M3 bombers since 1991, aside from a few finished post-Soviet collapse. Its strategic fleet — Tu-160s, Tu-95MS, and Tu-22M3s — totals just 70–90 aircraft. Losing even 10 in a single strike is a major blow to their long-range capabilities.
5/20

It’s unclear what this means long-term for Russia’s terror strikes on civilians, but the losses will significantly hinder their short-term ability to continue. They’ll also be forced to redeploy defenses to remote bases, stretching resources even further.

6/20

Naturally, both Russian state media and various vatniks have been busy coming up with all kinds of explanations, excuses, and implications for the attack. In today’s soup, I’ll go through the most prominent ones and theorize what’s behind these often-fake narratives.

7/20

In the Russian information space, the milbloggers have compared this attack to Pearl Harbor — even though it has zero resemblance to what happened there. Many pro-Russian accounts and rage farmers have even called for a nuclear response against Ukraine.

8/20

Russian newspapers were reportedly told to ignore the attack, instead leading with stories like a train crash. Media usually await Kremlin cues, but it’s also possible Putin wants to bury the news entirely to avoid public panic or embarrassment.

9/20

American, MAGA-aligned influencers have been extremely busy sucking up to Trump — and to Putin. QAnon cultist and former Trump security advisor Michael Flynn called the attack a “geopolitical insult” since Zelenskyy didn’t warn Trump ahead of the strikes.

10/20

According to Mr. Weaver aka Armchair Warlord, the offensive “seems to have fizzled out entirely.” The Russians With Attitude team tweeted that the attack “sure hurts but [is] not devastating,” while massively downplaying the actual losses.

11/20

“Investigative journalist” Renzo Zindee claimed that “Russia has been looking for a solid excuse to replace its TU-95 bomber fleet,” again downplaying these massive $7 billion losses. RIA Novosti claimed that Westerners have “begun to apologize en masse to Russia.”

12/20

Along with a few other vatniks, Scottson has been in full panic mode. He called it the “Ukrainian Jihad phase,” claimed it “derailed the negotiations” (unlike Russia’s terror against civilians), and said it will have “almost zero noticeable effect” on the battlefield.

13/20

Alex Jones blamed the attack on NATO and called on Trump to pull out of the alliance. Phillip Buchanan aka Catturd claimed that “Zelensky doesn’t want peace,” despite his calls for an immediate 30-day ceasefire in recent months.

14/20

Russia’s biggest clown and alcoholic Dima Medvedev called the strike a “terrorist act,” and claimed it was done in collaboration with Ukraine’s Western allies. Jackson Hinkle, who’s quickly fading into irrelevance, tweeted just “F*ck Zelensky.”

15/20

There was also a clear attempt to blame Finland for the attack. “David Z” claimed that the attack on Olenya airfield was “apparently carried out from the territory of Finland and Norway,” and Scottson claimed the same, calling the war a “superpower proxy war.”

16/20

Then there’s the “This is a ‘gloves off’ moment for Russia” crowd, claiming that Russia will now actually start punishing Ukraine and that they’ve been going soft before. We all know Russia will keep terror-bombing Ukrainian civilians — now with less bombers.

17/20

The vatniksphere has responded to one of Ukraine’s most successful ops with denial, lies, absurd takes, and threats. Inside Russia, the topic seems off-limits—usually a strong sign that it dealt a serious blow to the country’s warfighting capability.

18/20

Next, we’ll see some heads rolling. In the following months, there will be an unaccounted number of high-ranking officers falling out of windows or having heart attacks. At the same time, Ukraine’s SBU is probably already planning their next mission.

19/20

And finally, this attack has inspired hundreds of memes. Some of them have been archived here — go check them out:



20/20

https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1929225642920513684

The 2nd edition of “Vatnik Soup — The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation” is officially out!

You can order your copy here:

kleart.eu/webshop/p/vatn…