𧡠The Gaza Sahawat has undergone some iterations in implementation, with this latest form being the most successful. Initially, the IDF tried to duplicate the Iraqi Sahawat w little modification, attempting to directly bribe (usually Fatah aligned) tribes in Gaza into defecting.
https://twitter.com/RashmanTheHorse/status/1930005473757147533
This effort failed due to several factors, most important of which was that Hamas had already defanged dissident tribes and coopted tribal society shortly after they took power. Early on, the infamous Dughmush was often mentioned, but it publicly rejected IDF overtures.
The next phase began mid-2024 when the IDF occupied the Philadelphi Axis in particular and Rafah in general. This is when banditry began to considerably worsen. By late last yr, the bandits were openly working under the protection of the IDF w their own designated zones.
At this pt, it's unclear if contacts were made b/t the Yassir Abu Shabab network and the PA. It's plausible that some already existed due to Abu Shabab's previous Fatah membership, but this is speculation. I suspect the operation at this stage was directed b/t IDF and Abu Shabab.
Anti bandit operations in the final weeks before the ceasefire and during the ceasefire put significant pressure on the bandit network. Abu Shabab was reportedly nearly killed in Dec 2024 and went into deep hiding during the ceasefire, allegedly even offering to pay off Hamas.
The current phase of the Gaza Sahawat likely began once Israel imposed the complete siege in the final weeks of the ceasefire. I suspect concrete links b/t the Abu Shabab network and the PA were made during late March and finally put into effect in early April.
Around this time, we saw images of Yassir Abu Shabab sporting military gear and uniform, indicating formalization of the network. Tellingly, bandit social media accounts became active in the March - April timeframe. In mid-April, news of the deaths of 4 PA operatives --->
was circulated on these social media accounts. At this stage, we can conclude that the Abu Shabab gang and the PA were working together. The plot has escalated. Instead of buying off tribes (thus elements Gazan society), this phase of the Gaza Sahawat --->
seeks to fragment and coerce Gazan society by way of starvation. On social media, all of the bandits describe their work as dismantling Hamas AND returning PA authority. The essentially criminal nature of the original Sahwa (and of the PA itself) is made especially clear here.
In maintaining such tight control of humanitarian aid, the bandit networks are able to force obedience from the public. An essential element (and weakness) of the plot is sustained IDF deployment. The Abu Shabab gang operates strictly in Rafah which is under IDF control.
The strategy to overthrow Hamas seems to be: IDF occupies area => protects bandit networks => bandits work w the PA to seize civilian "governance" ie control of aid => coerce population into acquiescing, thus undermining Hamas' authority. The PA actually orchestrates banditry.
This is perhaps the most dangerous threat yet to Hamas as it attacks the physical survival of Gazan society, forcing ppl to make desperate choices. However, its reliance on Israeli protection is a key weakness. In the absence of this, the bandits are highly vulnerable.
.@threadreaderapp unroll
β’ β’ β’
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
γ
