VolSignals Profile picture
Jun 4 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Today MIAX busted all trades within a 15 min. window

Technically 14 minutes, 45 seconds and 686.121405 milliseconds (but who's counting?)

For most customers it's just a minor pain but it's a nightmare for a market maker

(short thread) Image
1 / What does "busting all trades" mean?

The exchange literally cancels all trades executed within this window.

15 minutes is an eternity.

And while TRADES are cancelled,
hedges are not. Image
2 / We hedge (or net) immediately at execution

so imagine...

I sell 500 puts at 11:20
system sells shares at 11:20:00:275.634331
system buys options to cover sales

book "balanced"

and on and on and on and on
racking up a ton of sequences just like this in that window
3 / Now what?

That 15 minute window is an insanely long time for a MM desk

That's a lot of time for:
✓ spot price to move
✓ vols to change
✓ positions (and hedges) to accumulate

that's all fine if you're hedge, but this "bust removes half of the equation.
4 / Here's a real example of a one-off I've dealt with myself

I'm running a quoter, and get hit on 134 lot of deep ITM puts $4.5 below theo where the call strike is worth $0.15

...a gift of a trade, and risk free once it's hedged
5 / system buys 268 minis against this 100d put

once hedged I basically have locked in $60,300 before costs and some basis hedging (trivial here)

market drifts lower a few dollars, a few more...

support calls over to the desk:

"Cboe's calling about a 134 lot of puts"
6 / "Customer is busting, says it's an error"

What I'd like to say:
7 / turns out you don't really have a choice (as MM).

The reality:
8 / ..not really, it's a cost of doing business

but it's brutal and often pretty suspicious

I have no trade, ergo no reason to own 268 ES from $12 higher. Not only do I NOT have any edge on the original trade- but the delta is a pure puke.

268 * 50 * -12 = -$160,800.00
9 / this isn't that frequent but it's rarely in the MM's favor

Often times it's an obvious error but sometimes they get pulled in wide market conditions when it's not easy to prove the rule

This MIAX issue was a system wide issue- even more rare, impacting loads of trades...
10 / I can only imagine the clerical fire drill after getting this notice.

Unknown risk on the line.
Suddenly you have to freeze systems, manually spot check positions against removals, pull the trades, refresh the position, hedge new delta, run PNL,

and last but not least
pray.

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More from @VolSignals

Jun 8
Market Makers don't manipulate price—
we're trapped by our own hedging requirements.

When SPX drifts between long and short strikes, our systems start buying and selling futures in ways that create predictable paths.

(short thread) Image
Image
These paths depend on a variety of factors... it's not as simple as "GEX"

► Gamma (Spot Movement)
► Charm (Passage of Time)
► Vanna (Changes in Implied Volatility)
► Position Type
► Position Size
Gamma
[dDelta/dSpot]

The gateway to dealer hedging flows.

Option Gamma values grow as they near expiration, so 0DTE options make the biggest impact to our book here.

If we're long options, we're long Gamma.
Our Delta grows more positive as the market climbs.Image
Read 25 tweets
May 24
SPX Jul-31 6500 Calls
18.2k bought Friday around $5.00 avg price 🎯

To put in context, that's:
✓ the same as 182k SPY calls
✓ $9.2 million in premium spent
✓ breaking even on a 12.1% rally over 68 days

hedge, or speculation?
we can't know for sure, but... 🧵Image
—we CAN know how this trade impacts the dealer's position.

Why does it matter?
Dynamic option hedging drives a significant portion of market activity.

Positions dictate behavior,
and shape how MMs respond to order flow.

This makes markets more predictable, not less.
Here's the trade hitting time and sales, and a chart of the option price & volume over the course of the day.

Left side: Bloomberg's Quote/Trade Recap (QR)
Right Side: Bloomberg's Intraday Price Chart (GIP)

Actual trades in the first image, prices and volume bars in the second. Image
Image
Read 10 tweets
May 20
90% of options data sellers get this wrong.

Let's say Esoteria really does sell me 100 Jun 5200/5600 Put Spreads.

We both trade live (no hedge).

We cross in Cboe's Complex Order Book
(sorry MBI no bro on this one)

How does each method capture the trade..?Image
First, naive portfolio construction.

It holds:
» Customers buy puts to hedge
» Customers sell calls to finance hedging

Market makers are therefore:
✓ Short all the Puts in the OI
✓ Long all the Calls in the OI Image
Dealer position, naive construction:

Short 100 Jun 5600 Puts
Short 100 Jun 5200 Puts

Market impact (dynamic) after our trade:
🔸Short Gamma
🔸Shorter Gamma to downside
🔸Charm influence is bullish until between strikes
🔸Market more volatile on selloffs Image
Read 10 tweets
May 17
Let's start with the basics.

Imagine a long 1 month straddle.

When we start out, we have a very basic position:

✓ Long Vega
✓ Long Gamma
✓ Paying Theta

We don't have:

✕ Skew (Vanna)
✕ Wings (Volga)
✕ Speed (Gamma stable)
✕ Charm (Delta stable)

How does it evolve?
Vega correlates with time to maturity.

Longer dated options have more Vega
Shorter dated options have more Gamma

As the clock ticks, but spot remains flat
our position loses Vega but becomes longer Gamma
This can be intuitively understood as the options becoming less sensitive to "implied volatility"

and more sensitive to "realized volatility"

the tradeoff?

theta
Read 16 tweets
May 17
Market Makers don't manipulate price—
we're trapped by our own hedging requirements.

When SPX drifts between long and short strikes, our systems start buying and selling futures in ways that create predictable paths.

(short thread)
These paths depend on a variety of factors... it's not as simple as "GEX"

► Gamma (Spot Movement)
► Charm (Passage of Time)
► Vanna (Changes in Implied Volatility)
► Position Type
► Position Size
Gamma
[dDelta/dSpot]

The gateway to dealer hedging flows.

Option Gamma values grow as they near expiration, so 0DTE options make the biggest impact to our book here.

If we're long options, we're long Gamma.
Our Delta grows more positive as the market climbs.
Read 29 tweets
May 12
My view is best stated as:

- I don't think we surpass all-time highs without seeing a meaningful reversion in key flows
- the overnight gap was instrumental in moving price OUT of a zone of pressure and retracement (5550-5650) and into a zone of acceleration and levitation (5750-5825)
- pressure will draw us back into this range unless we have another massive stop-in

Going back to subject of the quoted thread:
This morning, a customer bought 20k of the 0DTE 6000 Call for avg $0.50.

We are drawn to big numbers.

A customer buying 20k of anything stands out to us.
The buyer spent $1M in premium...
"they must know something!" is a common, instinctive thought, when you see an outlier like that— especially on the buyside.

But when I'd see an order like this to open the day as a MM, my first thought is SOLD

and my second thought is SELL MORE

Not every flow is smart.
Not every buyer knows something.
They could be forced to buy per their clearing arrangement or internal risk thresholds.
They could be punting, gambling.
...or they could be covering an exposure we're not privy to.

This was a customer order, not a bank or firm trade and exactly the type of order you want to lay into as a market maker.

Compare that premium on this straddle price to any similarly distant trade on any other day, and you'll see why.

Note how fast this premium vanished:Image
For an option to have any dynamic influence, exerted through the dealer hedging processes, it has to first exist somewhere on the distribution.

Something this small is like a conditional conditional.

The only hedge for the MM is to buy a risk unit near the level for margin coverage.

Hedging a delta of 1 (1%) means the MM is buying 2 ES futures per 100 SPX calls sold.

In this case, a static opening hedge would have been only 400 futures for the entire 20k lot of calls sold to the customer.

And of course then, the unwinding of this hedge (charm/decay) is trivial.
Selling 400 futures throughout the course of the day would do very little to cause any discernable pressure on the index.
When analyzing trades and positions, you need a firm grasp on which types of options create which types of influences on the market- and this is done by viewing the dynamic hedging process for that option or position, through the lens of the market maker tasked with hedging it.

Some positions will cause the market to move, while others cause it to stick.

Some positions cause the market to SLOW DOWN as it moves in one direction, and SPEED UP as it moves in the other.

Some positions will force selling when vol goes bid, and some will force buying.

Some positions will force market makers to bid vega as implied vol goes higher, while other positions pick up vega on vol increases, allowing the market maker to scalp vega just like he would scalp gamma.
Read 4 tweets

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