VolSignals Profile picture
Jun 4, 2025 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Today MIAX busted all trades within a 15 min. window

Technically 14 minutes, 45 seconds and 686.121405 milliseconds (but who's counting?)

For most customers it's just a minor pain but it's a nightmare for a market maker

(short thread) Image
1 / What does "busting all trades" mean?

The exchange literally cancels all trades executed within this window.

15 minutes is an eternity.

And while TRADES are cancelled,
hedges are not. Image
2 / We hedge (or net) immediately at execution

so imagine...

I sell 500 puts at 11:20
system sells shares at 11:20:00:275.634331
system buys options to cover sales

book "balanced"

and on and on and on and on
racking up a ton of sequences just like this in that window
3 / Now what?

That 15 minute window is an insanely long time for a MM desk

That's a lot of time for:
✓ spot price to move
✓ vols to change
✓ positions (and hedges) to accumulate

that's all fine if you're hedge, but this "bust removes half of the equation.
4 / Here's a real example of a one-off I've dealt with myself

I'm running a quoter, and get hit on 134 lot of deep ITM puts $4.5 below theo where the call strike is worth $0.15

...a gift of a trade, and risk free once it's hedged
5 / system buys 268 minis against this 100d put

once hedged I basically have locked in $60,300 before costs and some basis hedging (trivial here)

market drifts lower a few dollars, a few more...

support calls over to the desk:

"Cboe's calling about a 134 lot of puts"
6 / "Customer is busting, says it's an error"

What I'd like to say:
7 / turns out you don't really have a choice (as MM).

The reality:
8 / ..not really, it's a cost of doing business

but it's brutal and often pretty suspicious

I have no trade, ergo no reason to own 268 ES from $12 higher. Not only do I NOT have any edge on the original trade- but the delta is a pure puke.

268 * 50 * -12 = -$160,800.00
9 / this isn't that frequent but it's rarely in the MM's favor

Often times it's an obvious error but sometimes they get pulled in wide market conditions when it's not easy to prove the rule

This MIAX issue was a system wide issue- even more rare, impacting loads of trades...
10 / I can only imagine the clerical fire drill after getting this notice.

Unknown risk on the line.
Suddenly you have to freeze systems, manually spot check positions against removals, pull the trades, refresh the position, hedge new delta, run PNL,

and last but not least
pray.

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More from @VolSignals

Feb 6
"We think a stronger gamma supply from the 0DTE complex has driven the long gamma overhang (lower intraday volatility, all else equal)" - UBS

Bingo – not all gamma is created equal Image
Longer tenor options literally have different gamma profiles.

Their gamma distributes farther across spot ranges and has less local variation (speed)
This creates stable gamma "regimes" at the back of the gamma profile.

Remember the regimes?
Read 13 tweets
Feb 6
When you know (accurately) what market makers are holding in the SPX

...you get more insight than you realize.

Years in, I'm still fascinated by what I'm learning every day as I drill into the details each morning and rate the outcomes.

Take positions, for example > Image
Across the 6800s for Friday's expiry-
market makers are net long 5,874 options

in the 6700s
market makers are net short 190 options

in the 6600s
...market makers are net long 15,952 options

Without being a quant, can you guess which range tomorrow would bring highest RV?
That option distribution is critical
it defines how the market will behave

note, I didn't say "could"
I didn't say "maybe" or "tends to"

it defines how the market will behave
Read 17 tweets
Feb 3
Vol Control funds currently 'very long' the S&P

these funds scale their exposure according to estimates of volatility, which are usually based on blended measures of historical volatility.

Their flows are impactful, but can't be modeled as precisely as option hedging

(1/N) Image
The simple way to understand their behavior -

When the market is calm, they'll buy more equities.
When it's volatile, they'll sell equities & reduce their beta
This isn't "exactly" gamma...

but it's yet another "rules-based" flow that's downstream of volatility, which is highly correlated with option gamma hedging flows.

This connection is likely the root of why market participants believe that "positive gamma is bullish."
Read 10 tweets
Feb 1
Gamma is a simple concept that starts with knowing that market makers want to make money trading options (not gamble on market direction)

So *delta* is the greek that tells us how much money we make or lose

when the market moves...
(1/n)
If our delta is 100 and the SPX goes up $1, we make 100
if it goes down $1 we lose 100

but options are more complicated because that "delta" changes, too.
Gamma measures how much that changes

If our delta starts out neutral (0 market exposure)...

the market goes up $1

and suddenly our delta is +200

our gamma must be +200 (delta change / spot change)
Read 12 tweets
Feb 1
SPX DEALER GAMMA
[How to understand it and use it in your trading]

Last week, average dealer gamma was +$7.9bn, according to Bank of America

Let's break down what this means, bring the number down to earth- and explore how to use it in your own trading approach >> Image
First, that figure is Notional Gamma

it represents the dollar change in the option portfolio's delta given a 1% move in the index, expressed in notional terms.

A "delta" figure in this context is a way to understand your position's exposure to the underlying >>
Saying that your delta is $7.9bn

is like saying

"I expect the value of my options portfolio to behave as if I owned $7.9bn worth of stock" >>
Read 22 tweets
Jan 21
Long gamma or short gamma?

Most of the time, the market is in a "long gamma" position

Technically, this means that flows are absorbed by the hedging behavior of market makers- stabilizing the market overall and compressing ranges over time.
But compare today to yesterday?

If you're zoned in, this probably "feels" like negative gamma
but guess what...

it's still significantly positive overall.

It's just a major RELATIVE change in regime, comparing yesterday's totals to today's totals.

How do we quantify it?
Read 5 tweets

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