🧵 1/ A thread about the Kerch Bridge, because there is a lot of nonsense circulating.
What we know about the explosion(s), damage & consequences—and what we don't know. An assessment for anyone who wants to understand more precisely what happened there.
#Ukraine #Kerch #Myths
What we know about the explosion(s), damage & consequences—and what we don't know. An assessment for anyone who wants to understand more precisely what happened there.
#Ukraine #Kerch #Myths
2/ There were two (!) confirmed explosions and at least one sea drone intercepted by a Russian Lancet combat drone. The attacks targeted the railway bridge and its supporting underwater structures. 
3/ According to Ukrainian sources, explosives with a TNT equivalent of approximately 1.1 tons were used. This mass was therefore distributed between at least the two detonation points. A massive, centrally coordinated attack that had been planned well in advance.
4/ 🧱 How is the bridge constructed?
In the ship passage area (span: 227 m), the Kerch Bridge is founded on 110 pylons with a diameter of 1.42 m per pier, which are anchored deep in the ground underwater.
In the ship passage area (span: 227 m), the Kerch Bridge is founded on 110 pylons with a diameter of 1.42 m per pier, which are anchored deep in the ground underwater.
5/ The bridge is additionally protected against collisions with ships by large concrete fenders. These round, white “ship deflectors” have diameters ranging from 14 to 19 meters – an important benchmark for interpreting explosions in the video.
6/ 📽️ What do we see in the video?
A huge, mushroom-shaped water ejection with dark bottom discharge – typical of a strong underwater detonation with sediment turbulence.
Please note the perspective and that we are probably “only” seeing 550 kg of explosives being used here.
A huge, mushroom-shaped water ejection with dark bottom discharge – typical of a strong underwater detonation with sediment turbulence.
Please note the perspective and that we are probably “only” seeing 550 kg of explosives being used here.
7/ Does the explosion seem smaller than expected? Don't be fooled!
Right next to it is a 14 and 19-meter protective fender, which makes the explosion appear smaller than it actually was. The cloud of water and sediment is 15-20m high and has an estimated weight of 20-30 tons!
Right next to it is a 14 and 19-meter protective fender, which makes the explosion appear smaller than it actually was. The cloud of water and sediment is 15-20m high and has an estimated weight of 20-30 tons!
8/ This picture also clearly shows the force of the detonation. This is one of the steel beams that was blown off the pillar of the railway bridge, hurled across the bridge, and landed on the vehicle bridge.
Try throwing that 😅
Try throwing that 😅
9/ 📏 At what depth did the actual explosion occur?
The type of sediment distribution, cone angle, and delay indicate a depth between 4 and 7 meters. It is also likely that the charge was placed deep into the sediment for 💥compaction.
The type of sediment distribution, cone angle, and delay indicate a depth between 4 and 7 meters. It is also likely that the charge was placed deep into the sediment for 💥compaction.
10/ 💣 Charge & explosives
It is likely that a slower but high-energy explosive was used—e.g., TNT, PBX, or H6—which is particularly effective underwater in generating shock waves against massive structures.
researchgate.net/publication/33…
It is likely that a slower but high-energy explosive was used—e.g., TNT, PBX, or H6—which is particularly effective underwater in generating shock waves against massive structures.
researchgate.net/publication/33…
11/ Why is there no visible damage?
Underwater explosions have a downward & lateral effect, tearing away sediment, undermining foundations and substantially weakening the structure without anything immediately “collapsing” above.
The bridge is still standing—but for how long?
Underwater explosions have a downward & lateral effect, tearing away sediment, undermining foundations and substantially weakening the structure without anything immediately “collapsing” above.
The bridge is still standing—but for how long?
12/ 🔧 What damage is likely?
▫️Partial or complete undermining of pillars
▫️Cracks in the foundation or damage to the pillar base
▫️Possible asymmetry or tilting stress, which intensifies with further loading
▫️Partial or complete undermining of pillars
▫️Cracks in the foundation or damage to the pillar base
▫️Possible asymmetry or tilting stress, which intensifies with further loading
13/ 💥 How likely is the railway bridge to collapse?
A pillar that has been directly hit can also collapse with a delayed effect—especially if it is repeatedly subjected to heavy loads from military trains.
The danger is real and difficult to predict in terms of timing.
A pillar that has been directly hit can also collapse with a delayed effect—especially if it is repeatedly subjected to heavy loads from military trains.
The danger is real and difficult to predict in terms of timing.
14/ 🚂 Can Russia still use the bridge for military purposes?
Yes, but at risk.
▫️Reduced loads
▫️Slow traffic
▫️Need for constant monitoring (e.g., through sensors or underwater inspections)
A total failure would be a massive logistical setback.
Yes, but at risk.
▫️Reduced loads
▫️Slow traffic
▫️Need for constant monitoring (e.g., through sensors or underwater inspections)
A total failure would be a massive logistical setback.
15/⏳ How likely is a collapse in the coming days/weeks?
🔸 If further stress is applied without repairs: high
🔸 If no further stress is applied & repairs are made: medium to low
🔸 If additional stress is applied, storm, heavy rain or new explosions: high risk of collapse
🔸 If further stress is applied without repairs: high
🔸 If no further stress is applied & repairs are made: medium to low
🔸 If additional stress is applied, storm, heavy rain or new explosions: high risk of collapse
16/ 💡 What else can happen underwater?
▫️Renewed undercutting by currents
▫️Progressive cracking
▫️Shifting of the foundation base → A gradual process that manifests itself, for example, in sudden subsidence or bridge sagging.
▫️Renewed undercutting by currents
▫️Progressive cracking
▫️Shifting of the foundation base → A gradual process that manifests itself, for example, in sudden subsidence or bridge sagging.
17/ 📌 Conclusion:
The bridge was severely damaged by a targeted underwater attack—little is visible, but the danger lies beneath the surface.
Logistics have been weakened, but not cut off.
However, any further strain brings the structure closer to the tipping point.
The bridge was severely damaged by a targeted underwater attack—little is visible, but the danger lies beneath the surface.
Logistics have been weakened, but not cut off.
However, any further strain brings the structure closer to the tipping point.
So now, once again, the ravages of time are gnawing away at the Kerch Bridge—and the special forces of @DefenceU and @ServiceSsu 😘
Slava Ukraini!
Heroyam Slava!
Slava Ukraini!
Heroyam Slava!
A german version of this thread can be found here: .
https://x.com/EiWasDann/status/1930256849237942322
@threadreaderapp unroll, please.
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