Way up North, #Russia 🇷🇺 opened a new front at #Sumy, hoping to get close enough to the city to control its supply routes and shell it, but #Ukraine 🇺🇦 is opposing fierce resistance, aided by the strong brigades and natural obstacles.
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After the capture of Sverdlikovo and Nikolayevo-Daryino, Kursk Oblast', already in early February 2025, Russian forces started attacking southwards across the state border towards Novenke and in the fields between Zhuravka and Basivka.
After some small initial successes, they got rapidly bogged down because of Ukrainian drone crews that were freely hunting them in the open fields and the number of capable brigades that had just retreated from the Kursk salient and regrouped around that area.
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Seeing that they were effectively stuck, the Russians decided to do what they can do best: lengthen the front, exploiting their superior resources, and threatening with encirclement the Ukrainian forces opposing them at the original frontline.
Facing what was described as a horde of Russian infantry along this frontline, the Ukrainians had to retreat further back.
Though, this retreat was not properly conducted or orderly, and the Russians were able to exploit more than a gap to advance further than the Ukrainians expected.
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This leads us to today, where the Russians strongly consolidated their presence in Sumy Oblast' along the Kindrativka - Oleksiivka - Bilovody - Basivka line (photo #1), which to them constitutes a great springboard for further offensive operations, which they're trying to expand southwards.
To even get close to the city, though, they first need to break through and capture the strong Yastrubyne - Khotin - Yunakivka line (photo #2).
These 3 names of settlements identify the largest settlements at the halfway point between the border and Sumy, which makes them perfect staging and accumulation points for both sides.
Between these settlements, moreover, lies a very big forested area, which the Russians will use to further accumulate their personnel and vehicles, with the added bonus of solid camouflage.
Furthermore, the whole line is located on top of a dominant hill ridge (photo #3), that would give Russian UAV operators free entry into Sumy and severely endanger its supply routes.
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Contrary to popular belief, Sumy is defended by outdated fortifications.
Until some months ago, we could've said that this region had one of the best defensive lines to protect it of all Ukraine, together with Zaporizhzhia. But in such a little time span, the rules of this war were turned upside-down by various upgrades to drones by the Russian side especially.
This is to testify that this is a war of innovation, together with the other things.
Going back to the fortifications, here are some examples.
They might look like very big, imposing, and powerful trench systems near roads and important objectives, but the truth is that most of the times the soldiers won't even bother to occupy them, and will rather take up positions in the treelines near them, which are multiple times more valuable because of camouflage.
Why is camouflage important? Because this war is a war of drones. You can have the most reinforced dugout in that trench system, but Russian operators can very simlpy throw at it 10 FPVs, and you will have to retreat... but where? In another dugout in the middle of the field that will be immediately targeted again?
The pictures represent trench systems around the Sumy city defensive line.
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Obviously, Ukraine is not at fault for having built these trench systems, because they were constructed in 2023 when drones weren't playing as big of a part in this war as now.
What they are at fault for, though, is not fixing this problem and not starting to build the so-called "guts" inside treelines.
In photo #1 you can see a great example of a "gut". In particular, this one was built by Russians to counter Ukraine's 2023 summer offensive near Verbove (47.4796134, 35.9329742).
As you can see, the trench system was mostly covered (now only a few parts still have covered ways), it was camouflaged in between trees and foliage, rendering Ukrainian reconnaissance virtually impossible in the summer months without literally deleting the treeline.
This "habit" has been mostly lost by Ukrainian engineering forces in the rear, that receive orders to build trenches in the open, while it remains in only some of the most static areas of the frontline. I'm not a big fan even of the style in photo #2, even though it's better, having a camouflaged dugout and (still unfinished) covered ways.
If it's not possible to dig "guts" for whatever reason, photo #3 is the best option in my opinion. Small, independent systems with a dugout and (in this case unfinished, too) covered ways. Everything, crucially, inside the treeline.
Ukrainian engineers, though, must use small excavators that do not uproot trees, and rather dig between them, so that the situation in photo #3 does not happen. This also has the added benefit of being able to dig closer to the frontline, as the excavator can move while camouflaged inside treelines.
Getting back to our strategical analysis, here are the exact steps I would take to stabilize this direction if I were in the Ukrainian higher command:
1. Start digging trench systems in the massive forested areas northeast of Sumy, both at the massif's edge, looking at the fields (photo #1), and in the deeper areas of the forest, and immediately place drone operators there, that will also prepare their smaller positions and enlarge them expecting a retreat of the infantry in front of them. This forest massif has a great chance of becoming a "swamp" for Russian forces just like Kreminna: the experienced units are there.
Furthermore, it has hard slopes, very dense greenery, is periodically cut by small clearings (photo #2) and even has lakes deep inside the massif (photo #3). All of these things together have the potential of turning this area into a living hell for Russian forces.
2. Prepare very solid plans to retreat to the Yastrubyne - Khotin - Yunakivka line. Further disorganized retreats cannot be allowed and Ukraine can't afford to let the Russians into such strategical positions. If necessary, blow the bridges over the Oleshnya river (the river passing through most of the line's towns). Plan kill zones that the Ukrainian UAV operators stationed in the forest massif will be able to easily control.
3. Reinforce the Pysarivka - Yastrubyne line, rather than the Pysarivka - Yunakivka one. The first is much easier to break through than the second, which as said presents very hard terrain.
4. Buy time for the Richky - Mykolaivka - Stetskivka line to be reinforced, but don't think twice about withdrawing from positions if needed. Stubbornly holding your positions over a certain limit is the worst mistake in the situation Ukraine is in, especially about manpower.
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Obviously, these steps are easier said than done to finish in practice. This will take time and effort, both of which Ukraine is limited in. Furthermore, I designed them not knowing what the Ukrainian command knows. The situation might be different than what we imagine it to be.
Pretty obvious specifications in my opinion, but just being safe.
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Personally, I do not think that the Sumy front is inherently dangerous. I strongly think Sumy city will NOT be captured by Russian forces in this war, first of all because it's not their objective, and secondly because of its characteristics. The city is big. Not Bakhmut, Pokrovsk or Chasiv Yar big. We're talking about 145 km², which is 2.5x Toretsk, 5x Pokrovsk and 6x Myrnohrad.
It looks like the city itself, too, was built for defensive purposes: absolutely massive high-rise and industrial areas, split in multiple parts by rivers, the whole eastern side defended by the same massive forest massif, and the flanks secured by sizeable cities behind rivers.
Even if the Yastrubyne - Khotin - Yunakivka line were to be abandoned, the Russians would encounter a topographical and orographic nightmare before reaching the city.
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In conclusion, the Russians do NOT want and can NOT capture the city. For them, capturing the Khotin heights is more than enough, because from there they will have a stable foothold into the Oblast', but most importantly they will be able to shell and strike with UAVs Sumy city itself, rendering it dead, just like Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and many, many others. This is the only thing to be worried about. The city falling is not even remotely a possibility.
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Against renewed #Russian 🇷🇺 attack efforts, #Ukraine 🇺🇦 has not been idle, and is currently building the New Donbas Line, which stretches from #Kharkiv city to #VilnePole (#Zaporizhzhia), and which is the fruit of years of drone war experience and, finally, error correction.
In some sections, it's already capable of withstanding full-force #Russian attacks.
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After 1.5 years of total offensive on much of Ukraine's territory, Russia is seemingly not intending to decrease the pace of their assaults, and on the contrary are renewing offensive actions on the South Donetsk, Novopavlivka, Kostyantynivka, Siversk, Lyman and Sumy.
In contrast, though, the Ukrainians have not been watching and sleeping all this time, and have brought big reinforcements in the critical Kostyantynivka direction, and, focus of this thread, have been digging a brand new Donbas Line.
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The first parts of this line were constructed back in early March, and the Ukrainians have been building and reinforcing non-stop since then.
We trench mappers call it the New Donbas Line because it covers a massive 350 km: from Kharkiv city itself to Pechenihy east, to Shevchenkove west of Kupyansk and all the way down to Izyum, then west of Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, at Zolotyi Kolodiaz, north of Dobropillia, Slovyanka, Mezhova, Havrylivka and, finally, Vilne Pole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
In the #Kostyantynivka direction, #Russia 🇷🇺 started serious offensive operations to flank the city from the west and breach #Ukraine🇺🇦's little number of prepared defenses there, with the help of new drone innovations.
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After the Ocheretyne breakthrough in April 2024, the Russians captured many important positions and settlements around the town itself. One of these was Novooleksandrivka. After its capture, the Ukrainians succesfully halted further Russian advancements towards Vozdvyzhenka, aided by the Kazenyi Torets' and Bychok rivers, which funneled the Russians into the village, and the vast fields north of Novooleksandrivka.
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In January 2025, though, the Russians exploited the fact that the Ukrainians had left, after a year of inactivity, only few and inexperienced units defending this sector, and moved the bulk of their reserves to counter-attack at the Kotlyne salient.
Vozvdyzhenka was taken after a couple of days, but the Skala's battalion delaying actions, that was hastily transferred there temporarily, saved the situation by directly attacking Russian accumulation inside the village and giving crucial time to the units behind to reorganize an effective defense.
Some reserves were also transferred, for example an Azov contingent at the "Kleverne" interchange of the important Pokrovsk - Kostyantynivka road, which conducted a successful counter-attack and destroyed a dangerous Russian accumulation under an overpass that was preemptively destroyed by the Ukrainians.
In the picture is where the frontline was stabilized for some time.
In the #Lyman direction, #Russia 🇷🇺 dangerously expands its bridgehead and attacks #Torske.
#Ukraine 🇺🇦's defenses are not in the best shape here, and #Russian FPVs harass #Ukrainian logistics extremely effectively, forcing retreats.
In the very last days of 2024, Russian forces were able to cross the Zherebets' River, and in early January 2025, the settlement of Ivanivka, situated on the other side of the river, was captured after a failed attempt.
A lesser-known specific about this series of attacks is the fact that the Russians exploited the dried-up reservoir, which significantly helped, and through which the main infantry attack was concentrated. The armor, instead, flew into the village through the road.
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After taking Ivanivka, a chain reaction occurred: Russian forces moved both along tactical heights and through forests in the local gullies exclusively with infantry, and due to the disorganization and very small numbers of the Ukrainian units that they were facing were able to advance more than 10km, capturing the vital settlement of Nove.
This settlement, other than being important because of the sheer rarity of urban areas in this sector, was the key to the dominant hill system behind the Zherebets river, as visible from picture #2.
This way, the Russians will be able to threaten with encirclement the Ukrainian grouping of forces between Kopanky and Nove by simply advancing along the same height, instead of uphill.
How #Ukraine 🇺🇦 is planning to stop #Russia 🇷🇺 in #Donetsk Oblast', once and for all.
A strategical frontline and fortification works assessment for the month of March 2025.
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After extremely tough fighting, and tactical counterattacks and disruptions, the Ukrainians were able to finally mostly stabilize the contact line along most of the Donets'k's front and extinguish the most dangerous Russian offensives for the Pokrovs'k - Myrnohrad agglomeration.
Seeing this, Russia decided to shift its focus elsewhere, especially concentrating on the Uspenivka - Rozlyv axis.
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Russia coupled the shift in their area of activity with the utilization of the armor they have likely been stockpiling for some time (Russia is suffering from a serious lack of armor all along the frontlines), and broke through on a mechanized assault to Bohdanivka. They were denied consolidation only thanks to massive efforts by the involved brigades.
All along the front, the #Ukrainians 🇺🇦 are fighting the #Russians 🇷🇺 for the initiative and are conducting small tactical counterattacks, buying crucial time to reinforce defensive positions in the rear that #Russia 🇷🇺 can't afford to give #Ukraine 🇺🇦.
Stay with me in this thread while I analyze which new defensive lines were built and which reinforced, from #ChasivYar to #Zaporizhzhia.
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Lately, #Ukraine 🇺🇦 has been launching many small counteroffensives all along the front and has been successfully repelling #Russia 🇷🇺's attacks, with February being the month of least #Russian territorial gains since summer 2024.
It is though important to correctly interpret the objectives of these small counterattacks and debunk common beliefs of an incoming big counteroffensive. The objectives are: 1. Buying time 2. Tactical position improvement 3. Questioning Russian initiative
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As said, the crucial time bought by these localized counterattacks is being put to use by reinforcing defensive positions in the rear. Let's start analyzing this process more in-depth with #ChasivYar.
Trenches:
- No visible changes.
Anti-tank ditches:
- New line north-east of Kostyantynivka.
- Extended the two already existing lines east of the city.
- New line between the city and Ivanopillya.
- New line south-west of Kostyantynivka.
Dragon's teeth:
- New line crossing the railway at the northern exit of Chasiv Yar.
- 3 new lines at the eastern entrance of Kostyantynivka.
- Extended line at Bila Hora.
- New lines and extensions south of Kostyantynivka and Ivanopillya in correlation with the worsening of the situation in Toretsk at the start of February.
Barbed wire:
- Extended line east of Kostyantynivka.
- New lines east of Ivanopillya.
On the #Pokrovsk front, #Russia 🇷🇺 can't keep up the pressure anymore and was forced to downscale its offensive efforts.
#Ukraine 🇺🇦 is exploiting this by counter-attacking in many places along this sector, while fortifications are being strongly reinforced with a novelty: the great use of barbed wire.
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Dachne - Andriivka
This is the most difficult part of the whole Pokrovsk front for the Ukrainians.
Russian forces pressure Kostyantynopil constantly, but are always repelled. Without changes.
Zelenivka, south of Ulakly, reportedly changed hands twice today. In the morning, the Russians captured the village, but a Ukrainian counterattack was able to clear part of the village in the afternoon. The destruction of 2 Russian tanks and 3 MTLBs is reported. Russian forces are also attacking east of Zelenivka on the opposite bank of the Sukhyi Yali river; extremely harsh fighting is still ongoing.
In Dachne, the Ukrainians still control the south-westernmost corner of the town. Nonetheless, the Russians started accumulating infantry in the center for further assaults on the remaining Ukrainian positions in the village and around it. Fighting continues.
The most difficult situation is Andriivka, which some sources give as practically captured. Here the Russians consolidated and secured last week's gains and continue wedging themselves in the town. At the moment, they're trying to fully secure positions on the western buildings of the town. The northern part is still controlled by Ukraine, but north of that, the Russians entered a trench system located on the dominant hill overlooking Andriivka itself, which endangers every Ukrainian position south of it.
The Ukrainians will have to retreat in the very near future from Dachne and nearby positions to Ulakly to avoid encirclement, as Kostyantynopil is already being attacked from both sides. After, the Ukrainians will fall back to the line Kostyantynopil - Rozlyv, before falling back again to the more solid Oleksiivka - Bahatyr - Komar line, where they're expected to hold out for some time.
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Sribne - Nadezhdynka (Nadiivka)
The Russians are clearing the last buildings in the northern part of Sribne and are constantly attacking Zaporizhzhia. After capturing the central part of the town, they moved fighting to the western part, where it is still ongoing.
Russian forces are trying to recapture lost ground after a localized Ukrainian counter-attack in the forests south of Nadezhdynka, while also trying to capture a treeline that approaches Preobrazhenka from the north, threatening Ukrainian positions in Zaporizhzhia.
In picture #2, the next suitable lines of defense.