Thread by @clement_molin

In May 2025, the Russian 🇷🇺 army achieved record advance in Ukraine 🇺🇦 and started faster in June

In Sumy, Lyman and in the south of Donetsk oblast, Moscow pushed back and isolated several fronts, but key cities are not yet threatened.

🧵THREAD🧵1/23⬇️

On this beautiful map made by @Pouletvolant3, we can see how much Russia progressed each month of 2025 in Ukraine.

We can see 4 main directions, Kursk and Sumy, Lyman, Kostiantynivka and south of Pokrovsk.

To this chart, we can add this one by @Deepstate_UA showing that the month of may 2025 is the 3rd biggest in the last year and half.

We can note the february-march pause that I previously highlighted and the start of the new offensive in late april.

Since january 2025, the number of FAB bombardments by Russia has not ceased to grow, with around 150 everyday !

Chart made by @M0nstas

The number of armoured assault has slightly dropped, replaced by civilian vehicles.

We can also see that on the number of losses, with less and less losses of armoured vehicles and tanks compared to unarmored vehicles.

@M0nstas also gathered statistics from UA general staff claims of attacks : here, we can see that FPV drones are more and more important.

He notes :

-Artillery: 165 656 total, down to 5 300/day
-FPVs: 90 478 total, up to 3 000/day
-Bombs: 4 251 total, daily use down 20%
-MLRS: 3 549 total, unchanged, scaled by necessity

Based on this chart by @konrad_muzyka, we can see that Russia is firing daily more and more drones at Ukraine, everynight.

Around 150 fired daily.

Russia and Ukraine are now using long fiber optic drones, that can reach 50km behind the lines.

This is a true game changer, because any vehicle of any type can be targeted from this distance, the drone cannot be jammed.

The solution ? Anti-drone nets to cover the main supply roads and artillery positions such as this one :

Since june first, we are already at 145 km2 captured by Russia in only 4 days !

This months is going to be the record of captured territory since months and the situation is worrying for the ukrainian armed forces.

In Sumy, russian forces continue to push accross the border after pushing back ukrainians from Kursk.

Russian border offensive is the second one after the first operation in Kharkiv in may 2024. It force ukrainian forces to maintain troops far from the current frontline.

@Playfra0 published a good thread on the Sumy situation today,

Russian are following the topography and may be able to bomb Sumy if Yunakivka falls. Second map shows what is the possible objective.

https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1930590508377632991

In the Kharkiv oblast, russian forces continue to push accross the Oskil river to isolate Kupiansk.

Ukrainian forces continue to prepare their large "New Donbass line in front of Izium, Shevchenkove, Chuhuiv and Kharkiv.

As you can see on the previous map, russian army is trying to isolate ukrainian forces in 3 different zone near the Oskil river :

1-Koupiansk (a city, easy to defend, few bridges, but vulnerable to the Oskil crossing north of it)
2- Borova (one vulnerable bridge, difficult to defend)
3-Lyman (large forest, multiple bridges oppotunities, easy to defend)

Additionnaly, the "New Donbass line" is supported by former (yellow) and new (clear blue) defensive lines, while new defenses are being prepared on the light blue layers that I mapped here.

On this "New Donbass line", ukrainian forces continue to adopt their new trench strategy.

-> smaller and more numerous trenches
-> hidden in the woods
-> 3 layered ditches with barbed wire (anti-infantry)
-> dragon teehts and wire, same strategy

In Donetsk oblast, russian forces have made small progress near Bilohorivka and Chasiv Yar, but it is not yet enough to close in on Siversk, Kostiantynivka or Kramatorsk.

Ukrainian defenders continue to prepare the 4 cities for defense.

As you can see, I highlighted multiple small trenches on the new Donbass line, in every forest strip.

Also, a new ditch cover the area from Droujkivka to the Siverski Donets river, but there are now entrenched position, so this is not yet a defensive line.

South of it, between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, Russian forces continue to make progress northward. Ukrainian reinforcments managed to slow down the offensive, but the danger is still real.

Here is a view from Droujkivka, looking south, showing in green recent russian progress and both sides unites (based on @UAControlMap).

In Chasiv Yar and west of Kostiantynivka, russian command will try to cut the city to avoid a long fight inside.

Finally, on the western Pokrovsk direction, the situation remains the same as during the last months. Still no sign of entrance in Dnipropetrovsk oblast but a slow and steady progress to Novopavlivka.

(second map with all the trenches !)

To conclude, the russian military advanced faster in May and appears to be accelerating further in June.

Keep in mind that this remains relative to the size of Ukraine for the time being. More strikes and a major innovation: the fiber-optic FPV drone capable of exceeding 40 km.

Thank you for reading this analysis, that took me around 7 hours to prepare (mapping trenches and frontline, gathering information, building maps, writing thread...).

I appreciate your support and comments.