Thread by @emilkastehelmi

On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft.

Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/

From videos and satellite images, 23 distinct aircraft were identified in total as potentially targeted. The condition of 4 aircraft seen in videos remains unclear. Available evidence doesn’t allow for assessing potential damage or whether nearby drones even detonated. 2/

The highest possible number for total losses is 19, if all aircraft in unknown condition are actually damaged. However, this can’t be confirmed at the moment.

In 4 cases, it appears the drones likely missed, did not explode or cause visible damage for other reasons. 3/

Next, we’ll examine the damage in each individual air base. In Olenya:

4 x Tu-95MS destroyed

1 x An-12BK destroyed

2 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged

One of the Tu-22M3 was very likely in a non-operational state, a flap was missing from its left wing. 4/

In Belaya:

3 x Tu-95MS destroyed

4 x Tu-22M3 destroyed

1 x Tu-22M3 damaged

1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition

1 x IL-78 undamaged (aerial refueling tanker)

It's uncertain if the damaged Tu-22M3 can be repaired - it seems the hull was damaged. 5/

In Dyagilevo:

1 x Tu-22M3 damaged

1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition after the strike, likely non-operational

1 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged

In Ivanovo:

2 x A-50 unknown condition, planes non-operational, engines missing

6/

As you can notice, not all targeted aircraft were operational at the time of the strikes. Some have been stationary for long periods and may lack parts, such as engines. However, they’re proper targets too, as non-operational aircraft can be used as spare parts. 7/

For example, the two high-value A-50 reconnaissance and radar planes targeted by Ukraine likely fall into this category. It’s very likely neither of them got fully destroyed, but we couldn’t accurately assess potential damage. It’s also possible the drones did not detonate. 8/

The evaluation is based on videos and satellite imagery. Each aircraft was identified and geolocated to avoid double-counting, as some appeared multiple times in the footage. The condition of the planes was then assessed by combining video, imagery, and geolocation data. 9/

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told TASS that no aircraft were destroyed, only damaged, and all would be repaired. This claim either reflects complete ignorance or is deliberate disinformation, as multiple aircraft were damaged beyond repair. 10/

Ukraine’s General Staff has stated that 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed or damaged. However, visual evidence currently supports only 23 aircraft being hit or approached by drones. It is highly unlikely that any destroyed aircraft would have gone unnoticed. 11/

It’s possible that there are undocumented but damaged aircraft. Unpublished video footage of additional strikes could exist, and it’s not always possible to reliably assess limited damage from satellite imagery. Total losses may be slightly higher than currently known. 12/

However, it’s unlikely that the losses would mount up to 41 destroyed or damaged aircraft. Even if the total losses were limited to the 14 confirmed bombers, it would still be a very significant success for Ukraine, which should not be underestimated. 13/

Before the operation, Russia most likely had less than 100 operational strategic bombers in operational condition, so likely somewhere between 11-14% of Russian strategic bombers have been destroyed. Total losses are higher, but difficult to exactly estimate. 14/

These bombers have been used extensively in missile attacks against Ukraine, and they were very legitimate targets. The missile threat does not disappear directly with these losses, but especially in the long term Russian strategic aviation faces challenges. 15/

Russia can’t replace the lost bombers by simply ordering new ones, as neither Tu-95 or Tu-22M have been produced in over 30 years. The aircraft are aging, and a significant proportion of the operational planes were rapidly lost – some can’t even be used as spare parts. 16/

Here is the link to our sheet. If you spot mistakes, please inform us. This assessment was made by me, @EerikMatero and @J_JHelin from our @Black_BirdGroup.

Thanks to @wihurinrahasto for funding us – it made this BDA possible. 17/17

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…