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Jun 6 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The latest satellite images show 3 major developments: a large Russian troop buildup in Bryansk Oblast, damage from recent drone strikes in Kyiv, and unusual military activities at Taiwan’s Wangan Airport.

All three have one thing in common - they were generated by AI. 🧵Thread: Image
2/ While those who regularly work with satellite imagery or OSINT can quickly tell that something is "off," the quality of AI-generated satellite images is improving fast. As the number of convincing fakes grows, I've put together a few recommendations to help avoid being misled Image
3/ In the case of the "Kyiv attack," it took just a single prompt on a free platform to generate the image. While it appears convincing at first glance, a closer look reveals clear geometric irregularities - distorted car shapes, and irregular windows and balconies on buildings Image
4/ Similarly, a closer look at the "Bryansk build-up" image shows many geometric flaws. In the central part of the image, vehicle shapes often appear distorted - turning into cubes or misshapen rectangles. It’s also hard to identify what type of vehicles you’re looking at. Image
5/ Another good method is to compare the claimed location with actual satellite maps. A quick check on Google Maps will show that area either doesn’t exist or is heavily distorted. In the case of the Bryansk image, the location shown doesn’t match any real place in the region
6/ Imagery generated to imitate Synthetic Aperture Radar, or SAR, can be trickier. Compared to standard optical satellite images, SAR is often more complex and inherently more "distorted", especially if you aren't used to work with it. Yet, the same rules still apply Image
7/ Besides the problem with the helicopter blades, the lengths of helicopters in the same "class" don’t match. You can also compare them to other objects, like the "truck." A Russian Kamaz truck is about 7 to 8 meters long, while the Ka-52 helicopter should be twice long - 16 m Image
8/ Now the task becomes more challenging. Take a close look at these two high-quality images — one optical, the other SAR, and try to identify at least three geometric inconsistencies or suspicious anomalies in each Image
9/ We’re now reaching the most pivotal part of discussion - both images are original and made by Maxar and Umbra. In other words, there are no AI-made inconsistencies or anomalies here. If you spotted any or dismissed the imagery as fake, you flagged real images as false.
10/ And that’s precisely the problem — going forward, for every real image, there may be several convincing fakes. This risks eroding trust in satellite imagery altogether, making it easier to dismiss authentic visuals as AI-generated and undermining its value as evidence.
11/ To protect yourself, the best practice is to always verify the origin of the image. Companies like Maxar, Planet Labs, BlackSky, Airbus, or Umbra typically release imagery through their official channels, social media accounts, or via trusted journalists at major news outlets Image
12/ Organizations like ours, Frontelligence Insight, purchase imagery from resellers and publish analyses under specific licenses or conditions. In such cases, trust depends largely on the organization's track record and transparency - credibility that often takes years to build
13/ To summarize: always refer to the chain of custody. A Telegram channel sharing the image is unlikely to be the source. A visual investigator from an outlet like NYT, BBC, FT, or The WaPo with direct press access to Maxar or Planet Labs is far more reliable
14/ This kind of scrutiny will only grow more important going forward.

If you found this thread useful, consider liking and sharing the initial post, or leaving a comment to help boost it in the algorithm
15/ You can also support our work by following this account - we’ll be sharing more high-quality materials and investigations throughout the month. If you'd like to contribute directly, even a small donation via Buy Me a Coffee makes a difference: buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Jun 1
A drone attack is ongoing against Russian airbases with strategic bombers. While the full damage is still unclear, several videos show multiple bombers have been badly hit. Satellite images from yesterday confirm that Belaya hosts various Tu-95 models, Tu-22M3s, and Tu-160s
Satellite imagery of Olenya Airbase from May 26 at 09:50 UTC, shared by @avivector , shows the presence of 11 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 5 An-12 (Cub), and 40 Tu-22M3 (Backfire-C) aircraft.

Another suspected target is Belaya Airbase. Satellite images from May 31, analysed by @avivector , show the presence of 7 Tu-160 (Blackjack), 6 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 2 Il-78M (Midas), 6 An-26, 2 An-12, 39 Tu-22M3, and 30 MiG-31 aircraft.

Read 6 tweets
May 27
Over the past few months, Russians have focused on disrupting Ukrainian logistics, using a mix of drones, including fiber-optic. Once EW is neutralized or forced to withdraw by fiber-optic drones, it clears the way for drones like the Molniya, which can fly over 20 km. Thread:
2/ Cutting off supply lines has made vehicle transport nearly impossible. In some cases, individual soldiers must walk more than 10 km at night to deliver basic supplies: an unsustainable way for supporting any sizable unit, or even rotating troops.
3/ Despite growing logistical problems, Ukrainian command has made bad choices to launch Russian-modelled assaults. The attempt to capture positions while already struggling to hold current ones, with fewer troops and less equipment, lead to predictably poor outcome
Read 8 tweets
May 19
Through the Optics of War: An analysis of leaked confidential data from Russia’s military-industrial complex by Frontelligence Insight — from thermal scopes and laser anti-UAV programs to Chinese import schemes and production bottlenecks in the optoelectronic sector. 🧵Thread: Image
2/ Rostec is a state-owned conglomerate that includes much of Russia’s military-industrial complex. One of its key holdings, Shvabe, specializes in optical-electronic technologies for military and dual-use applications. The original files were obtained by the @256CyberAssault
3/ In February 2024, Polyus Scientific Research Institute, part of Shvabe Holding, was tasked with advancing laser technologies to counter UAVs. This includes developing materials like active elements under a program focused on high-power lasers, running through 2033.Image
Read 20 tweets
May 6
How bad is Russia’s war chest? Has the country entered stagflation? Why does it fear falling oil prices, but not a crash? And how is the tariff war hurting Russia?
These questions — and more — are explored in a special interview with Russian economist Vladimir Milov.

🧵Thread: Image
2/ Tariff wars:

China’s economic slowdown has closed its market to many Russian products, hitting major industries hard. The China-focused Russian coal industry is struggling, and Russian non-energy and non-commodity exports are down by about a quarter compared to pre-2022 levels
3/ Tariff war will obviously exacerbate the Chinese slowdown. The slower Chinese growth, the less market for Russian goods. Share of China in the total Russian exports is as high as a third now - we're heavily dependent on this market and its well-being.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 19
Thread🧵

1/ The exhaustion of Russia’s vehicle fleet is becoming increasingly evident. The reduced use of armored vehicles and the growing reliance on civilian: including motorcycles, golf carts, and vans, continues to signal a degradation in Russian maneuvering capabilities.
2/ During the winter, outside of Kursk, Russia achieved mostly tactical gains, notably in Kharkiv Oblast, the Chasiv Yar area and Kurakhove–Velyka Novosilka axis. While these advances have been troubling for Ukraine, Russia has so far failed to capitalize on them strategically.
3/ Despite slow progress, Russia still retains the resources and capability to conduct active offensive operations through the summer and fall of 2025. However, as I noted in my analysis last year, the diminishing returns will determine whether Russia will continue this war
Read 7 tweets
Apr 10
While our team continues working on the latest updates, here are a few updates on the current state of the frontline:

1/ Despite holding the advantage along much of the frontline, Russia’s winter campaign yielded limited results - indicating Ukraine’s situation is not dire
2/ The Pokrovsk area now appears more stable than in February. At that time, Russian forces had established a foothold in Zvirove, with deeper advances into Pokrovsk looking imminent. Since then, not only have the Russians stalled, but they have actually lost some ground.
3/ The overall composition and number of Russian forces near Sumy oblast currently seem insufficient to support a large-scale offensive operation deep into the region.
Read 7 tweets

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