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Climb That Ladder

Jun 7 • 24 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X

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Here are the final 21 out of 42 reasons I am a Metaplanet investor and absolutely love this company. I'll no longer be on the MPM podcast, but will continue sharing as much as possible. 🧵👇

https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1929750257581035831

1-21. Here are the first 21 reasons broken down if you missed them:

https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1929750257581035831

22. Highest Inflows into NISA Accounts. These are Japanese 0% capital gains savings accounts they can contribute a certain amount to each year. Even with as small as Metaplanet still is, it was the #1 most bought stock a couple of weeks ago.

23. Investor Count Matters. Not just that I love how much it's growing, but that Simon and team understand why this matters and have a goal of exceeding Toyota (~900k investors?). Numbers here are largely underreported as IBKR and others don't report individual shareholders.

24 (1/2). Extremely High Turnover %. To be so tiny relative to Toyota and many others, it's super impressive for Metaplanet to have the highest volume (in shares and fiat terms). Think: Speed of accretion of BTC/Share yield through low impact share dilution. Easy to absorb.

24 (2/2). Compared to MSTR for reference. Many of the low volume days for Metaplanet are related to the stock hitting up/down limits 😅.

25. Growing Investor Base Around the World. The US volume alone has been climbing like crazy lately. 5M share days are typical, where 50k share volume days were the norm 2-3 months ago.

26. Highest Volatility Stock in Japan. There's no denying that volatility is tied to performance. This stock is ALIVE. Volatility is vitality.

27. Growing X & Discord Community. X is 10x the size it was late April. Discord started late April and is over 2700 members now! So many contributors as well.

28. Trades Around the Clock. Much like Bitcoin, Metaplanet trades almost 24 hours a day, during the week, somewhere on the planet. The name is more fitting now than ever 😂.

29. Dominant in Asia. No challengers. They're the name people associate with Bitcoin and their execution in the area is likely to remain unmatched. Good luck to the copy pasters 🫡.

30. Major Tax & Other Advantages in Japan. It's not just NISA accounts. Outside those, the general tax rate is ~20% for stocks and is up to 55% for Bitcoin. I think you also have to mail something out to get permission to buy Bitcoin.

31. Hedge Against Yen & Bond Crisis. Bitcoin is the hedge against fiat devaluation and the bond market collapsing. Remember, Metaplanet doesn't keep much money in yen. Almost all of it immediately gets converted to Bitcoin.

32. Better than 0% Moving Strike Warrants. This is a first for Japan. Most companies pay a significant fee to dilute their shares. Metaplanet's current plan has them at -1% which means more value is gained from new share issuance.

33. 0% Ordinary Bonds. They have a great relationship with their MSW partner Evo Fund, and with interest rates in Japan being 0.5%, this isn't a problem. Basically pulling the future forward while we wait for them to start issuing more shares June 24th.

34. Potential For Negative Rate Convertible Bonds. Simon mentioned this in Vegas.

35. Fresh US Market Inflows. Initial volume in a new US ticker $MTPLF is a huge sign of inflows. Seen in orange below.

36. US Markets Uplist Potential. Just a matter of time. If/when this occurs, it'll likely convert from MTPLF to MTPL. I think these black squares will turn orange eventually.

https://x.com/gerovich/status/1931140265856700703

37. US Subsidiary Taking Root in Miami. Excited to see where this goes. None of my pricing models consider bonuses like this.

https://x.com/gerovich/status/1931140265856700703

38. Part of a Growing Number of ETFs. A week ago this showed 32 😅. Now 34. Number isn't going down.

39. Heavily Shorted. Mixed reports, but whether it's ~10% on the low estimates or 25% on the high estimates, there's a lot more courage than brains out there. They are future buyers. Think of it as the same selling effect as share dilution but with the obligation to buy back.

40. High Sharpe Ratio. ETFs and traditional investors care about this. It's all part of the recipe for a balanced portfolio with better risk adjusted returns.

41. It's Both "The Option" & "Inverse Option".

It's a call option on Bitcoin, BTC/Share yield, Yen debasement, Japanese bond crisis (among other things).

It's an inverse theta (time decay) option due to BTC/Share yield and the constant BTC put option revenue.

42. Incredible Preferred Stock Potential. It's a direct arbitrage between the expected bitcoin CAGR and the yield the company must pay out. Lower interest rates in Japan make this very juicy, and even a 10% Bitcoin CAGR would make this very profitable. From Strategy's slides:

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More from @ActuallyClimber

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@ActuallyClimber

Jul 4

Sorry, but remember my cube concept?

X- Bitcoin price change changes the stocks price by the same amount assuming mNAV and btc/share stay the same.

Y- mNAV change affects price the same way, assuming Bitcoin price and btc/share stay the same.

Z- BTC/share change affects price as a simple ratio as well assuming Bitcoin price and mNAV stay the same.

All of this being said, graphs below are cute, but please rationalize them with not just the potential change in Bitcoin price. In order to perform differently relative to Bitcoin, it’s now the area of a 2D surface stretching or compressing with one axis being mNAV change from today (or your baseline) and the other axis being BTC/share change. So, if you expect mNAV to stay flat and BTC/share to 10x its current amount (impossible for Strategy who holds 3% of all Bitcoin and would require holding 30% with zero share dilution in order to 10x btc/share), but if that’s still the naive expectation, that would allow a max outperformance from here of 10x in Bitcoin terms.

“But what about stock buy backs or earning yield in fiat instead of Bitcoin?” As Bitcoin price appreciates (not talking 50% but 1,000%… 10k% and so on) and a companies stack gets larger, yield and the power of buybacks will shrink. Expected double digit % outperformance of Bitcoin will be a thing of the past in coming decades once geo markets are saturated. That’s why now is such a critical time for investors to research and see if anything is worthy of their conviction.

“But mNAV is uncapped if they just stop selling shares on common. Plus, it’s kinda like PE ratio”. Sorry, not uncapped. I disagree with lots of people in this space here, but I’ll try to explain why. Most companies don’t go around selling common shares to the market very often. So why is their price capped? Because they’re unfortunate enough to hold fiat instead of Bitcoin on their balance sheet? Give me a break 😅. Look, we all know Bitcoin will outperform fiat long term, but it is the Bitcoin per share yield which provides tangible outperformance of the underlying. You think MSTR can reach 5% of all Bitcoin (holding 1.05 million of those puppies?). Great, I do too. So, once they do, if their mNAV hit 20 they would have a market cap equivalent to the value of all 21 million bitcoin. If you still think that’s a rational and even likely outcome, consider why investors would bid it up so high. The goal and potential of MSTR and others to outperform Bitcoin has to be quantified in BTC/Share. Otherwise it’s similar to a Bitcoin ETF. Is IBIT trading at a premium because it holds 600k (or whatever amount) Bitcoin? Nope. Why? Sure, by design, but don’t fall back on it not being an operating company etc. the differentiator is yield. If Saylor stopped providing yield.. decided they have enough Bitcoin and they’ll just squat on it, you think mNAV of 1 isn’t the general result? We’ve seen mNAV below 1 (where they certainly weren’t selling new shares to the market).

“But Climb, that was during a bear market”. Ok, so every bull market MSTRs mNAV can go unchecked to 100 and we will just drop 90-99% or so during bear markets?

“But Climb, there won’t be any more bear markets”. Sirs and ladies, can humans still leverage and overextend themselves? Is margin trading still possible? Is individual collateralized debt still possible? Yes. Human greed makes pops and flops of volatile sectors a “when not if” phenomenon.

Want a short thread of things which will keep mNAV from hitting 100 for anything that has more than a handful of Bitcoin and is trading on hope with extremely low marketcap anyway? 🧵 👇

1/7. Competition. We see it now with smaller holding, faster growing companies earning a higher mNAV vs MSTR. New/small companies will trade based on market trust/bet of future yield with the amount and speed of that yield being most important. People stopped trusting Semler’s execution and are confused by the medical business, and as there’s much better executing companies out there, Semler turned geriatric. Willingness to sell common shares to the market at low 1.xx mNAV doesn’t help.

2/7. Imagine in 10-20 years there’s rainbows in the sky constantly, only actual rain when you want it, perhaps to fall asleep to or when you’re thirsty. In this future, most people won’t even bother investing in Bitcoin because it’s common knowledge that MSTR will always outperform it. It’s so undeniable that everyone such as Jim Chanos has thrown in the towel and just accepted Bitcoin, but bypassed it, going for MSTR which obviously will outperform Bitcoin every year. Joking aside, the key here is that mNAV is and will increasingly become understood to be a measure of risk relative to Bitcoin. Chanos understands this. Of course he sees shorting around 2mNAV as wise despite seeing MSTR can easily provide 30-50% yield per year (decreasing somewhat quickly on average each year from here). There are only 21 million Bitcoin, after all (truly much less considering lost coins etc). Decreased yield is 100% inevitable long term. This isn’t a death sentence. I’m a big fan of Metaplanet and MSTR and consider them both to be undervalued. Even a 3-5% outperformance of Bitcoin (through yield exceeding mNAV compression) in the future may warrant a 2 mNAV.

Read 8 tweets

Climb That Ladder

@ActuallyClimber

Jun 27

Metaplanet may become the 2nd largest company in the world, second only to Strategy. Issuing perpetual preferred stock is the huge unlock for Metaplanet, and I speculate this will be announced to be voted on during the Sept 1st shareholder meeting. 🧵👇

1/10 Simon, Dylan, Shinpei and even Saylor on stage at Prague have all been talking about preferred stock for Metaplanet a LOT lately. They recently announced an extraordinary meeting of shareholders Sept 1, and as preferreds would require shareholder approval, I see this as very likely an agenda item.

2/10 Metaplanet has much less competition in Japan, with only 4 existing perpetual preferreds:
1. ITO EN, Ltd. Class‑A Preferred Stock (25935)
Yield: ~ 3.17% – 3.40%
2. SoftBank Corp. Series 1 Bond‑Type Class Shares (94345)
Fixed dividend rate: 2.50%
3. SoftBank Corp. Series 2 Bond‑Type Class Shares (94346)
Fixed dividend rate: 3.20%
4. INFRONEER Holdings Inc. Series 1 Bond‑Type Class Shares (50765)
Yield: ~ 1.85% – 1.88%

Read 11 tweets

Climb That Ladder

@ActuallyClimber

Jun 3

The first 21 of 42 reasons I love Metaplanet $MTPLF from Metaplanet Madness Ep 4 (link in comments if you missed it). @BTCBullRider also explored his concept of Cultural Torque which I recommend watching. 🧵👇

1. Simon & Dylan. These gentlemen have been transparent, consistent, and each have a few fantastic interviews on YouTube such as this one.

2. Full & Sincere Belief in Bitcoin. The company isn't using Bitcoin as a gimmick or side gig. This is their identity. Simon had Bitcoin back in the Mt Gox days, and Dylan has been researching Bitcoin and spreading the message for years.

Read 24 tweets

Climb That Ladder

@ActuallyClimber

May 17

Below are charts from my model as well as the link to Metaplanet Madness Ep 2 for anyone who missed it live earlier. 🧵👇

1/8 All of these charts are interconnected, and I tried to look at the past and be as conservative (even on the bull case) as possible. So, this isn't my personal view, this is what I believe to be very handicapped bull/base/bear cases. Less % dilution every month for the next 24 months is part of that. Historically, 10% or more has been the norm.

2/8 Now we take the previous chart and show how much the share count would increase by end of year and after 24 months.

Read 6 tweets

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@ActuallyClimber

May 13

What is life/vitality for Bitcoin Treasury Companies? Why will some manage to generate higher yield and accumulate Bitcoin much faster than others of the same size? Who decides the winners? Why will it be Metaplanet? A short 🧵👇

1/8 Strong mNAV: I don't mean it's just strong today. For me to trust that the accretive dilution machine can keep churning, I want to see a healthy range historically. Makes accretive dilution MUCH more efficient. MetaPlanet has that.

2/8 Turnover Ratio (shares traded daily as a % of shares outstanding). Accretive dilution just can't work well on low volume. Who's going to buy new shares?
Metaplanet has about 2x the turnover ratio as a lot of their competition. Speeds up the whole process. This is HIGHLY underappreciated. To trade at such a healthy mNAV and have high volume (at those higher prices) is really impressive.

Read 9 tweets

Climb That Ladder

@ActuallyClimber

May 10

Expected about 500 live viewers for Metaplanet Madness Episode 1 and I hear it went over 5,000?! Wowzer! Here's a thread to consolidate some of my charts from the episode. 🧵👇

1/10 Metaplanet's bitcoin accumulation has seen exponential growth. This will certainly slow, but I believe gradually. They spent 188 days between around 100 and 1000 bitcoin. I believe they'll spend 261 days between 1000 and 10000. So, my estimation is 10k bitcoin July 16th 2025.

2/10 Metaplanet is growing their bitcoin holdings as a ratio to MSTR's holdings. Just hit 1%. I don't see this chart slowing anytime soon. 10% in 2 years is my guess.

Read 11 tweets

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