1) With so much news coming from the war, this almost feels redundant, but here is my update🧵on Russia Tank losses, again T-80s losses out numbered T-72s, but not by as much as the last few months, T-90 losses are stedy, but T-62 Losses are down.
2) The first graph does not include 'Unknown Tank' which have been increasing and were over 25% in May (Black in this graph) this adds an extra layer of uncertainty on this, but I will persevere anyway.
3) T-90 losses, Q2 has so far only been T-90Ms. I don't know how many T-90As are left, but I suspect its very few now, the rest having been destroyed or upgraded to T-90M, but possibly some that have been forgotten.
4) T-80s: For the last few months 70% of T-80 losses have been the Obr 2022 variants (gray) most of the rest are BV or BVM, (orange) there may still be an ocatianly U (blue) out there left as well!
5) T-72s, similarly to the T-80s most of these 70% are T-72B3 Obr 2022 (green) or the 1 Obr 2025 which I have added to the Obr 2022s for simplicity. also there has been a rise in the very old T-72s, don't know if this is a blip or a trend yet.
6) I've simplified the T-62 Graph, putting all the Obr 2022s together, and in may they were 100% of the losses of T-62s. this might be an outlier. However the bigger story is why are total T-62 losses down, from 22% in december to 10% now. I don't know, I would like to think that they have run out of reparable T-62s and maybe that's true, but its not a safe conclusion to run to, perhaps the Russian have decided they are not worth the effort?
It might be that they are overrepresented in the 'Unknow Tank' category. or just a blip. Id be interested in other theories insiders knowledge.
7) The IFV to Tank loss ratio was almost exactly 3 in may, down form its peek in December, but up from were it was for the fist 2 1/2 years of the war.
8) A big thank you as always to the amazing people @WarSpotting for collating this data and making it available. here is the data table I use.
Also please can I ask a favour of any person form the UK reading this, please can you sine this petition created by @RossRitchie12 we really should be given Ukraine everything we can, and I'm sure they will appreciate 600 IFVs even if they are a bit old. petition.parliament.uk/petitions/7191…
@WarSpotting @RossRitchie12 9) Also for those asking, I will defiantly be adding the 13 from the train to the tables. (If they can be identified and added to warspoting.) however if they are all from the same type they might skew the losses a bit so that caviate needs to be remembered.
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1) Dramatic change in the make up of Russia losses this month. A big drop in the proportion (and absotte numbers) of IFV/APC losses (Light Blue) and rise in the proportion of Truck losses (light yellow near top) also some increase in tank proportion (dark yellow at bottom)
2) Here in table format, only 6 IFV/APCs (yellow) but 37 transport (orange).
I dont know whats driving this change, but I think it's too large to be random. my first thought/theory is that it might be related to the 'point' system that Ukrainian Drone forces operate under.
3) Here is a graph format, comparing tank to IFV/APC visually confirmed losses you can see the full and dramatic change. This graph is 'mid point of 3 month average' except September 25.
Normally there are 2-3 IFV/APCs for every tank lost, now it's the other way around.
1) The big story in Russian Tank losses, Is the decline in absolute numbers, (more on that in a bit) but there is also a significant change in the types lost. (Data from @WarSpotting ) with most of the decline happening in T-80s. 🧵
2) This graph is the same data as the first graph, but without the '3 month averaging'. T-62s and T-90s look like significant increase but their numbers are stedy, T-72s have declined proportionately to the overall reduction so there share is about the same.
3) The decline has been ongoing for a long time, but June and July were paticly low.
1) Over half of the Visually confirmed and identified (by @WarSpotting ) Russia tank losses this month are T-62s!
That is to say of the 12 Russian tank losses in July, 9 can be identified by type, 2 T-90s, T-72s and 5 T-62s.
There are caveats: 🧵
2)
a) With only 12 tank losses this is not a statistically significant sample.
b) Even if continued continued for many months, it does not necessarily mean that the majority of russian tanks are T-62s, it may be that older tanks are more vulnerable so lost more.
3) With the caveats out the way, this is what that looks like on a graph, T-62 losses (orange) are spiking, T-90s (green) also a record proportion of the total, T-72s down(yellow) and no T-80s (blue) so far this month.
1) The very old Russian BRM-1(K) are still rare, but becoming more common amongst Russian Losses.
So what does this mean? 🧵
2) They are still less than 2% of all Russian IFV/APC losses, but they are now over 20% of BMP-1 Based vehicles losses.
Note: I have left of the first couple of months of the war, as these months had a lot of LNR/DNR losses and were untypical.
3) So what is the BRD-1(K)? it is a soviet design reconsases vheale, based on the BMP-1. Built between 1973 and 1988, it had extra surveillance and communication equipment compared to the BMP-1 but less ammunition for its main gun, and didn't carry infantry.
1) Russian IFV/APC types that are still IN PRODUCTION are becoming rarer. After a peek in November 2024, they have dropped below 20% for some reason. a short 🧵
2) If we look at losses for the first week of April, they are down to just 2.2% of the total IFV/APC losses. I've added this week to the graph and posted here, but posting it in the second tweet in🧵so I'm not being too sensational.
3) There are 3 types known to be in production, the BMP-3,BMD-4 and BTR-82, plotting these losses against each other looks like this, the BMP-3 are a shrinking proportion of a shrinking pie.
1) Ukrainian keeps destroying Russian Tanks, so I'm going to keep on making graphs and 🧵 of destroyed Russian tanks.
Russian T-80s recorded the highest proportion ever 54%, and T-72 recorded the smallest ever 22%.
2) The T-80s are the most significant type, so I will start with them. T-80U losses have been minimal for two years now, but there seems to be a relatively consistent rate of change to the Orb 2022 variants. If this continues, then all the old ones will be gone around Jul/Aug.
3) T-90 losses remain bout 7% of the total. So fr this quarter they have all been the T-90M variant.
I think 'most', by which I mean almost all of the 'New T-90Ms', have been upgraded T-90a, not new builds, for the last two years, and now they're out of T-90a.