1) With so much news coming from the war, this almost feels redundant, but here is my update🧵on Russia Tank losses, again T-80s losses out numbered T-72s, but not by as much as the last few months, T-90 losses are stedy, but T-62 Losses are down.
2) The first graph does not include 'Unknown Tank' which have been increasing and were over 25% in May (Black in this graph) this adds an extra layer of uncertainty on this, but I will persevere anyway.
3) T-90 losses, Q2 has so far only been T-90Ms. I don't know how many T-90As are left, but I suspect its very few now, the rest having been destroyed or upgraded to T-90M, but possibly some that have been forgotten.
4) T-80s: For the last few months 70% of T-80 losses have been the Obr 2022 variants (gray) most of the rest are BV or BVM, (orange) there may still be an ocatianly U (blue) out there left as well!
5) T-72s, similarly to the T-80s most of these 70% are T-72B3 Obr 2022 (green) or the 1 Obr 2025 which I have added to the Obr 2022s for simplicity. also there has been a rise in the very old T-72s, don't know if this is a blip or a trend yet.
6) I've simplified the T-62 Graph, putting all the Obr 2022s together, and in may they were 100% of the losses of T-62s. this might be an outlier. However the bigger story is why are total T-62 losses down, from 22% in december to 10% now. I don't know, I would like to think that they have run out of reparable T-62s and maybe that's true, but its not a safe conclusion to run to, perhaps the Russian have decided they are not worth the effort?
It might be that they are overrepresented in the 'Unknow Tank' category. or just a blip. Id be interested in other theories insiders knowledge.
7) The IFV to Tank loss ratio was almost exactly 3 in may, down form its peek in December, but up from were it was for the fist 2 1/2 years of the war.
8) A big thank you as always to the amazing people @WarSpotting for collating this data and making it available. here is the data table I use.
Also please can I ask a favour of any person form the UK reading this, please can you sine this petition created by @RossRitchie12 we really should be given Ukraine everything we can, and I'm sure they will appreciate 600 IFVs even if they are a bit old. petition.parliament.uk/petitions/7191…
@WarSpotting @RossRitchie12 9) Also for those asking, I will defiantly be adding the 13 from the train to the tables. (If they can be identified and added to warspoting.) however if they are all from the same type they might skew the losses a bit so that caviate needs to be remembered.
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1) The very old Russian BRM-1(K) are still rare, but becoming more common amongst Russian Losses.
So what does this mean? 🧵
2) They are still less than 2% of all Russian IFV/APC losses, but they are now over 20% of BMP-1 Based vehicles losses.
Note: I have left of the first couple of months of the war, as these months had a lot of LNR/DNR losses and were untypical.
3) So what is the BRD-1(K)? it is a soviet design reconsases vheale, based on the BMP-1. Built between 1973 and 1988, it had extra surveillance and communication equipment compared to the BMP-1 but less ammunition for its main gun, and didn't carry infantry.
1) Russian IFV/APC types that are still IN PRODUCTION are becoming rarer. After a peek in November 2024, they have dropped below 20% for some reason. a short 🧵
2) If we look at losses for the first week of April, they are down to just 2.2% of the total IFV/APC losses. I've added this week to the graph and posted here, but posting it in the second tweet in🧵so I'm not being too sensational.
3) There are 3 types known to be in production, the BMP-3,BMD-4 and BTR-82, plotting these losses against each other looks like this, the BMP-3 are a shrinking proportion of a shrinking pie.
1) Ukrainian keeps destroying Russian Tanks, so I'm going to keep on making graphs and 🧵 of destroyed Russian tanks.
Russian T-80s recorded the highest proportion ever 54%, and T-72 recorded the smallest ever 22%.
2) The T-80s are the most significant type, so I will start with them. T-80U losses have been minimal for two years now, but there seems to be a relatively consistent rate of change to the Orb 2022 variants. If this continues, then all the old ones will be gone around Jul/Aug.
3) T-90 losses remain bout 7% of the total. So fr this quarter they have all been the T-90M variant.
I think 'most', by which I mean almost all of the 'New T-90Ms', have been upgraded T-90a, not new builds, for the last two years, and now they're out of T-90a.
1) The makeup of Russian lost IFVs has shown a strange pattern recently. I don't know why, but the types still in production made up 25-30% of losses for most of the war, then that rose rapidly to about 40% in November, nd have now dropped to just 20%🧵
2) By types still in production, I mean the IFV BMP-3, the air mobile IFV BMP-3 and the wheeled IFV/PC crossover BTR-82.
I have not included the BTR-MDM, as there are conflicting counts regarding whether it's in production, but with only 42 losses total it won't change the graph.
3) Between November and February, the number of tracked vs. wheeled losses has increased each year, which could explain some of the change. However, it's more pronounced this year. This shows up in the first graph of new-build vs. old, which did not last a few years.
1) For the first time in two and a half years, Russia has not lost (Visually Confirmed) a single T-90 Tank for a whole month. (and only the second month of the war, after July 2022)
I think they are now very low on their best Main Battle Tank, in working condition. 🧵
2) Overall, Russia is only visually confirmed to have lost 151 T-90s, but a portion of the 333 'Unknown Tanks' will also be T-90s, and others will have been lost and not photographed. At any point in time, there will be some damaged tanks that will need repairs.
3) Russia claimed to have made 60 T-90Ms in 2021; this number might be accurate, but I suspect it includes many upgrades from T-90As.
They also claim to have increased production to 18 a month. To achieve anything close to this, All (or almost all) will have been upgraded.
1) Russian Visuly confirmed IFV/APC losses by type over the war.
It looks like 8-wheel BTR losses are a much smaller proportion of the total than usual, Reversing the trend of the last 10 months.
But this is almost certainly the mud season, 'Rasputitsa' and not a new trend.
2) I left December off the graphs and predicted a little differently. This showed what I think is the trend.
The top three IFV/APCs are still being made: BMP-3 (Dark Blue), BTR-82 (Green), and BMD-4M (Light Blue). However, the BTR-82 is increasing the most rapidly, suggesting it is being built in the largest numbers.
Meanwhile, the old BMP-1 and 2s (grey) are declining fastest, and MT-LBs are also declining more gradually, suggesting that supplies from the storage bases have decreased.
3) It might be that BMP-2s are now declining faster than BMP-1s, which makes sense because Russia would logically take the BMP-2s first, but this has only been 2 months, so it's too early to call a trend.