Few #cpi takeaways:
1) Headline +0.1% MoM and core +0.1% both below exp by a tenth. Core +0.12% unrounded wasn’t even close
2) I’d heard a decent amt of noise about upside risk so this is a pretty big swing psychologically
1/
1) Headline +0.1% MoM and core +0.1% both below exp by a tenth. Core +0.12% unrounded wasn’t even close
2) I’d heard a decent amt of noise about upside risk so this is a pretty big swing psychologically
1/
3) OER +0.3% in line with trend and has convincingly downshifted that’s biggest diff vs year ago CPI
4) Air fares biggest downside -2.7% as mix shift away from govt travel towards leisure, but volumes down ~2% vs summer 2024
2/
4) Air fares biggest downside -2.7% as mix shift away from govt travel towards leisure, but volumes down ~2% vs summer 2024
2/
Broad sense is that discretionary spending categories have very little pricing power right now despite higher input costs. Not great for margins.
Continue to see risks of inflation trending short of Feds target by 2026 as bigger risk to prices once tariff pass thru done.
Continue to see risks of inflation trending short of Feds target by 2026 as bigger risk to prices once tariff pass thru done.
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