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Guy LeBas Profile picture
Guy LeBas
@lebas_janney
Janney Chief Fixed Income Strategist & PM. I reject follows from default profile pics and brand new accounts; open to all others.
4 subscribers
Jun 25 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
The Supplemental Leverage Ratio, A 🧵:

1/ This afternoon, the Fed published a proposed change to the "SLR" which requires US regulated big banks ("GSIBs") to hold extra capital. The proposal now goes into a 60-day comment period but I'm guessing any changes will be small.

Full doc here:

2/federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bo…
Jun 24 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
A Fed 🧵

I suspect the Fed's "positioning" has shifted in recent weeks from assuming further cuts are unnecessary and requiring proof of eco deterioration to cut to assuming cuts will be necessary and requiring proof to AVOID cutting.

1/ Image I think we see this trend in the political winds blowing from the White House to VERY clearly in today's Congressional questioning from both sides of the aisle. We definitely see this trend in vocal comments from Waller and Bowman who have been on hawkish side in '24-'25.

2/
Jun 6 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A few #payrolls takeaways:

1) Headline job gains +139k vs +126k exp--call it an in line print as prior months revisions took out -95K

2) "Feel" is gradual slowing but could go either way form here

2) Avg hrly earn touch warm at +0.4%, but 2-month avg consistent w/+0.3%

1/ 4) Industry breakdown incl manuf contraction (-8K), construx flat (+4K) , retail/trade/transport flat (-3K); biggest upside was private ed & hlth (+87K not unusual)

5) HH survey had u-rate unch at 4.2% but -623K job losses losses and flows v. similar to recent months

2/