Few #CPI takeaways:

1) Headline +0.3% vs +0.3% exp (mkt fixing was more like 0.25%)

2) Core +0.2% vs +0.3% exp so slightly low side, though unrounded +0.2295% basically in line with whisper

3) Contrast to Bessent implied warning and 5th consecutive downside core number

1/ 4) Biggest downside swing is used cars (-0.7%) as most forecasters penciled in a moderate increase

5) Biggest upside is medical care (+0.5%) which is highest mthly move of the year

6) Other categories incl shelter (+0.2%) were basically middle-of-road

2/

Few #jobs report takeaways:

1) NFPs added +147K, much stronger than 106K exp and the even weaker whisper number, so call it a big beat with caveat: govt jobs were 1/2 of the total

2) Revisions to prior months added a handful of incremental jobs, though not meaningful

1/ 3) U-rate fell to 4.1% vs. a small exp incr. as labor force participation dipped

4) Avg hourly earnings +0.2% ; intermediate term trend looks like three tenths, so this month largely evens out last month to return to trend

2/

The Supplemental Leverage Ratio, A 🧵:

1/ This afternoon, the Fed published a proposed change to the "SLR" which requires US regulated big banks ("GSIBs") to hold extra capital. The proposal now goes into a 60-day comment period but I'm guessing any changes will be small.

Full doc here:

2/federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bo…

A Fed 🧵

I suspect the Fed's "positioning" has shifted in recent weeks from assuming further cuts are unnecessary and requiring proof of eco deterioration to cut to assuming cuts will be necessary and requiring proof to AVOID cutting.

1/ I think we see this trend in the political winds blowing from the White House to VERY clearly in today's Congressional questioning from both sides of the aisle. We definitely see this trend in vocal comments from Waller and Bowman who have been on hawkish side in '24-'25.

2/

A few #payrolls takeaways:

1) Headline job gains +139k vs +126k exp--call it an in line print as prior months revisions took out -95K

2) "Feel" is gradual slowing but could go either way form here

2) Avg hrly earn touch warm at +0.4%, but 2-month avg consistent w/+0.3%

1/ 4) Industry breakdown incl manuf contraction (-8K), construx flat (+4K) , retail/trade/transport flat (-3K); biggest upside was private ed & hlth (+87K not unusual)

5) HH survey had u-rate unch at 4.2% but -623K job losses losses and flows v. similar to recent months

2/