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Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
@evgen1232007
Jun 11 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
More bad news from Russia.
Amid the collapse of budget revenues, the Ministry of Finance is forced to increase the national debt at a frantic pace to close the hole in the budget. Since the beginning of the year, federal government bonds have been placed for 2.155 trillion rub
1/ Image
The rate of growth of the national debt has especially accelerated over the past two months against the backdrop of the collapse of oil prices. The economy is collapsing, revenues are falling, the national debt is growing. Rus is flying into the abyss. Inflation will soon soar
2/ Image
Such a frantic growth of the national debt against the backdrop of falling raw material revenues is hello to hyperinflation!
3/

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More from @evgen1232007

Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 10
The Kremlin's budget disaster thread.

In May 25, budget revenues fell -6% Y/Y for the first time in 1.5 years. This is the most important indicator of the economic crisis.

Against the backdrop of 10% inflation, the drop in revenues in real terms is 16%.
1/ Image
May-2025
Revenues - 2458 billion rubles -6% Y/Y

Of which:
- oil and gas revenues - 513 billion -35% Y/Y
- NON-oil and gas revenues - 1949 billion +8% Y/Y
Expenses - 2626 billion +20% Y/Y
Deficit - 168 billion
2/ Image
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Against the backdrop of continued high rates of spending to support the war, the budget deficit for 5 months was a record - 3.4 trillion rubles.
3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 22
At what oil price will Russian companies start making losses? - Thread.
I made some calculations that you can see in the table. Approximately 5700-5800 rubles per barrel.
1/ Image
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To assess the profitability of the sector, you need to take into account the dollar exchange rate. So, with today's exchange rate of $/80, companies need a price of $75 per barrel.

2/
At a rate of 100, companies will make a profit with oil at $60
Today, a barrel of Russian oil costs about $50 according to Bloomberg, therefore, companies need a rate of 115-120.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 17
Rosstat has classified detailed data on birth rates, death rates, marriages, divorces and corresponding coefficients in Ru.
Instead of 6 files, 1 file is now published.
Regional data is completely classified!
Monthly data has also been closed! (screenshot - all that remains!)
1/ Image
In March, the birth rate fell by 5.6% y-o-y to a new historical minimum - 3012 people per day. And the death rate jumped by 5.8% y-o-y to 5078 people per day. As a result, the natural decline increased by 28.4% y-o-y (!!!) to 2066 people per day. Rosstat.
2/
In April, the mortality rate rose even higher! Up to 168 thousand. In some regions, the mortality rate soared by 15-40%, such data was published by demographer Raksha based on registry office data.
Closing the demographic data was a matter of time in the conditions of war.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 10
A budget disaster is brewing in Ru
Here is a table with budget analysis
The planned budget expenditures for 2025 should grow by 5%, but in 4 months they increased expenditures by 21%, in order to fit into the plan, expenditures for the remaining period should be reduced by 2%
1/ Image
This led to a 182% increase in the budget deficit in January-April y/y
They need to reduce the deficit by 76% by the end of the year May-December
In the conditions of war, a 2% reduction in spending in the remaining months is extremely unlikely.
2/ Image
Therefore, the deficit can grow to an astronomical size - 5-6-7-8-9 trillion rubles.
The picture shows the deficit for past years, 2025 - for 4 months
3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 27
Russia is on the verge of a budget disaster!
Thread. Analysis of the industrial production index shows that the civil industry has gone into recession and collapsed to the level of spring 2023 (orange, Fig. 1)
1/ Image
Image
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Total federal budget revenues consist of two parts, oil and gas and NON-oil and gas. Civil industry provides the bulk of NON-oil and gas revenues. The slowdown in revenue growth is clearly visible in Fig. 2
2/
As can be seen from Fig1/2, the downward trend indicates the stability of the process which is unlikely to be affected by anything
But in addition to all these problems for the Ru, there the collapse of oil and gas prices.This will intensify the decline in oil/gas revenues and
3/
Read 7 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 13
The Ru economy has begun to collapse. Thread.
Federal budget revenue growth has been slowing for 5 quarters in a row and in Q1 25 it was only +3.7%. Look at the chart, the last 5 quarters the revenue growth rate was +54%_+25%_+25%_+11%_+4%
1/ Image
If we look at the rate of income growth on a monthly basis, we will see that the situation is even worse.
Over the past 15 months, the growth rate has fallen from +77% to 0%
The situation became especially catastrophic in Q1 25:
Jan 25: +11%
Feb 25: +2%
Mar 25: +0%
2/ Image
Now let's look at the structure. About 1/3 of revenues are oil, 2/3 are non-oil.
Oil revenues grew by 60-90% at the beginning of 2024, in Feb-Mar25 they fell by 20% due to the fall in oil prices, and this does not even take into account the fall in the last week.
3/ Image
Read 7 tweets

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