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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Jun 13 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
The data behind the attack according to Israeli media, around 200 warplanes using 330 munitions against 100 targets
Compare to a recent strike on the Houthis which was 20-30 warplanes and 50 munitions
The October strike was reported to include around 100 aircraft
Clarification, 200 aircraft can mean a lot of types of air frames, could maybe include drones as well probably since those are classified as types of aircraft maybe. Just a thought.

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 13
In February 2019 Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami, who was then the second-in-command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, claimed that if a war with Israel took place, then it "will result in Israel’s defeat within three days."
Salami made a lot of predictions. Image
As recently as a day ago he was talking about an "unprecedented" response and that Iran was ready for war...

Well... Image
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 13
In the wake of Israel's initial strikes on Iran. What ways might Iran choose to respond. Iran is in a complex situation because it had been working toward a deal with the US, but it also has been dealing with the recent IAEA censure. Iran has to weigh whether it responds in a kind of "tit-for-tat" as it did in 2024, where it launched ballistic missiles and drones; or if it escalates, or try to find another method. Here are some ways it might respond.
Diplomatically

Iran saw the overwhelming UN vote for a ceasefire in Gaza on June 12. It may think that it can play the victim now and leverage the Israeli attacks for its benefit.

Iran has invested heavily in diplomacy in recent years. It has worked on closer ties with Russia and China. It has strong ties with Pakistan and decent ties with India. It has joined economic blocs such as BRICS and the SCO. As such Iran is well positioned to use diplomacy against Israel. Iran has better ties with the Gulf than in the past and also close ties with both Turkey and Qatar, who are US allies. Iran’s foreign minister has travelled frequently in the region and was in Oslo on June 11.
Proxies

Iran has proxies in the region such as the PMU in Iraq and the Houthis. It also has the remnants of Hezbollah and groups such as PIJ in the West Bank and Gaza. The proxies are weaker but not defeated. Iran can move missiles to the PMU in Iraq. It can use them to attack US forces or the Kurdistan region. It can use the Houthis to re-ignite attacks on ships or direct attacks on Israel. The PMU have long range drones as well.
Read 7 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 13
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz immediately declares a special state of emergency in the home front throughout the entire State of Israel:

“Following the State of Israel's preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against the State of Israel and its civilian population is expected in the immediate future. Therefore, and in accordance with his authority under the Civil Defense Law, Defense Minister Israel Katz has now signed a special order, according to which a special state of emergency will be imposed in the home front throughout the entire State of Israel.”
His office said “You must obey the instructions of the Home Front Command and the authorities and remain in the protected areas.”
IDF Spokesperson:

*Changes in Home Front Command's Defense Policy:*

“Following a situation assessment, it was decided that starting today (Friday) at 3:00 AM, an immediate change will take place in the Home Front Command's defense policy.

As part of the changes, it was decided to move all regions of the country from a full activity level to a necessary activity level.

The guidelines include: a ban on educational activities, gatherings, and workplaces, with the exception of essential businesses.

The guidelines published by the Home Front Command through official distribution channels must be continued to be followed. The full guidelines will be updated on the National Emergency Portal and the Home Front Command app.“
Read 7 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jun 1
Why did CNN deel the need to put "peaceful" in quotes. The idea is to make it seem that there is a question as to whether it was peaceful. Image
Note that the article doesn't say anything about the man's statements. It does say "The source stressed potential mental health concerns have not yet been ruled out, which could factor into any charging decision."

They don't do reporting on the actual event, they try to make it seem as if it being "peaceful" is a controversial issue; but then do no reporting about what the suspect said.Image
The BBC also doesn't say anything about the perpetrator, but they don't put "peaceful" in quotes.

"A pro-Israeli peaceful demonstration was under way when the attack happened, police say - the group meets regularly for a walk to remember the hostages taken by Hamas" Image
Read 22 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
May 27
The emerging story in Gaza is that the new aid distribution is beginning. I will share some more posts and thoughts as this develops below 🧵
Images of people walking to get aid apparently
We can see here a long line of people apparently going to get the aid. These images bring up many questions and thoughts
Read 27 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
May 20
I've been thinking about the remnants of the Hamas leadership, who almost all seem to live abroad. Two Hamas officials went to Iran this week and talked tough about continuing the war. This is a war they don't experience. They want Gaza destroyed while they live abroad. Most of these men are in their 60s or older.
Key Hamas leaders today include: Mohammed Zahar born in 1945, Mousa Abu Marzouk was born in 1951, Khaled Meshaal was born in 1956, Khalil al-Hayya was born in 1960, Fathi Hamad in 1961, Basem Naim was born in 1963, Ghazi Hamid in 1964, Osama Hamdan was born in 1965, Husam Badran in 1966 and Zahar Jabarin in 1968.
When you think of this age group, many of these guys were in their twenties when Hamas was founded, they were in their thirties during the Oslo years and forties during the Second Intifada. That's when they were able to take over Gaza. They were still relatively young. Some of their peers were killed such as Rantisi and Sheikh Yassin. Yassin was much older than the rest.
Read 6 tweets

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