Thread by @Pataramesh

🟡 As Operation True Promise III is about to unfold:

➡️ A thread on which weapons 🇮🇷 will likely use for what targets:

1: Fattah-2
Maybe the best tool to take out 🇮🇱's U.S. AN/TPY-2 radar, a key asset for missile defense

But not known to be operational

2: Khorramshahr-4

Unlikely to be used but among the best systems to directly strike the THAAD AN/TPY-2 radar and battery components.

It would also be a suited tool against the Arrow missile defense layers.

Use unlikely as Fattah-1 is available.

3: Fattah-1

Operational and suited for taking out missile defenses and their radars

Probably the missile most likely to be used at the very start of the OTP-III strikes

4: Qassem-e-Basir

The precision-strike variant of the Haj-Qassem ballistic missile

Quite new but a tool to take out hardened targets like aircraft shelters, hitting vulnerable spots utilizing its image seeker

5: Kheybar-Shekan

Probably THE key missile for the phases after the missile defense radars are taken out.

Kheybar-Shekan-2 on its own has good capabilities to hit missile defenses

KS-1 is suitable for phases where some missile defenses remain active

6: Haj-Qassem

A new Qasi-Ballistic-missile but a low-cost one suited for strikes on demand throughout all of Israel.

Would be its first use but a very likely candidate

7: Emad & Etemad

Probably the main missile to be used in OTP-III

Precision is lower than the other Iranian missiles, due to its high impact speed.

But heavy warhead makes it suited for large targets, of which there are plenty

8: Paveh cruise-missile

The second layer is Iran's low-cost high-quantity cruise missile.

Faster than drones, but much easier to hit than ballistic missiles

9: Shahed-136/-131 and their decoys

Worlds most famous one-way-attack drone

Keeps the opposing airforces busy, which is a key defeat mechanism

It can also hit targets if it comes through or the opposing airpower is degraded via other means

10: Dezful

Iran's low-cost, compact, ballistic missile which can reach northern Israel

Very likely to be used this time
(first time)

11: Rezvan

This missile could cause the most damage, since its the lowest-cost missile Iran has that can reach all of Israel.

Quantity is probably amongst the highest and its difficult to intercept

12: Ghadr

Largely replaced by Emad and upgraded to a similar standard (added MaRV).

It was once Iran's main missile against Israel

Its heavy sub-munition warhead variants are very likely to be used against Israeli airbases

13: Qiam & Jahad

Again a high-quantity, low-cost missile, maybe the highest quantity of all Iranian ballistic missiles

A weapon of choice for hitting northern Israel

14: Sejil

A candidate for a missile to be used shortly after the first attack phase

It's a launch on demand asset to hit targets that have just been located

15: Khorramshahr-2

Iran's heavy warhead missile.

At later escalation stages, its up to 2000kg submunition warhead would be used against Israeli airbases

Its use, like the Khorramshahr-4, depends on escalation stage reached

16: Shahab-3

Iran's first Israel-range missile.

Largely stored and non-active, but if things escalate badly, this rather inaccurate missile could be used to hit Tel-Aviv

17: Zolfaghar

Can reach Israel only if launched from Iraq

But that's a real possibility at this point

18: Sayyad, Arash etc.

Iran's various types of low-cost, one-way-attack drones.

Less capable than Shahed-136, but very useful if opposing defenses are sufficiently degraded