Thread by @GrayConnolly

Small thread on Iran & its national security structures/history in somewhat plainish English and to correct some errors spreading in this online environment. It is intended to be informative but not exhaustive of the subject matter.

As anyone who has dealt with the Iranian state in any capacity esp military knows, it has many layers & (yes) satrapies that often feud & work at cross purposes … the Iranian armed forces (Artesh) operate relatively normally if persistently when ivo Iranian terroritories/seas

However, the Artesh was very much the Shah's armed forces so in 1979 when Islamists took over & there was a real (or perhaps false flag) attempted Artesh coup against Khomeini's regime in early 1980 ... the distrust caused the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to form/solidify

When Saddam invaded Iran in Sept 1980, distrust among Iranian military factions was put on hold to meet the common enemy & a pact was made whereby Shah-era Artesh officers fought the Mullah's war in return for a certain military autonomy... but the IRGC also grew stronger

Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s was paralleled by the expansion of the IRGC as a military force outside Iran, esp in Lebanon, where the IRGC sought to activate previously somewhat dormant Shia militants ... the IRGC would only grow in power & reach for the regime esp under Soleimani

Ironically for current events, despite decades of Iranian state propaganda to try to get your average Persian Shia to be interested in the grievances of Sunni Arab Palestinians .... the average Iranian still saw the immense costs of IRGC operations against Israel as money wasted

All the while, since 1979, the Artesh and the IRGC have had this uneasy relationship & history of volatility going back to the Shah's fall & Saddam’s 1980 invasion … the IRGC & Artesh distrust is such that they have separate commands & often supply structures [NB: dated image]

It seems clear that, at least at this juncture, the Israelis are insider Iran's decision cycle & have penetrated the Iranian command structure such that the IDF knows the C2 structures, comms, locations, homes etal of the senior Iranians they have targeted. One may speculate how?

My own speculation is that no successful regime change is possible in Iran without the Artesh & its leadership - the Artesh being the one Iranian institution that survives from the Shah's time & has some fading institutional memory of life pre-Mullahs

My one caveat is that Iran will never be a normal country & that for a regime to change in Iran, it is on the understanding that Iranian distinctness - as a Shia imperial power apart from Arab, Turk, etal - will be respected & maintained. My Iran thread⬇️

https://x.com/GrayConnolly/status/1128866747338055680

I trust this thread is useful for interested laypeople. I am naturally sympathetic to the Iranians as they are an historic civilisation & their Shiism was historically tolerant of Christian & Jewish minorities. The tragedy of 1979 & Khomeini's regime continues to haunt us.
/BT/