Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ The imprisoned Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin has given a gloomy prediction of the likelihood of Russian success in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions of Ukraine. They're well-defended by the Ukrainians, he says, while Russia has insufficient forces to capture them. ⬇️

2/ Girkin writes:

"The offensive in the Sumy region had been in preparation for a long time. The enemy knew about it very well, the enemy began building defensive structures against this supposed offensive several months ago, built several defensive lines to the east of Sumy."

3/ "And now they are already reporting construction to the west – well, apparently because everything they could build to the east has already been built.

The distance from the front line to Sumy is now about 20-25 km.

4/ "From the border, in principle, also a little more than 30 km. Therefore, the depth of our advance in several days of the offensive, let's say, is not very impressive for week-long battles.

5/ "Once again, we are performing a remarkable "example of our military art": firstly, we attack where the enemy is waiting for us; secondly, he has prepared there; thirdly, we attack exactly when the enemy is waiting for us;...

6/ "...fourthly, we have not collected enough forces for this operation. Therefore, unfortunately, my forecast for this offensive is negative.

7/ "I consider the probability that we will take Sumy as minimal. The probability that we will come close to them - well, it may be, but nothing more.

8/ "As for the evacuation of the civilian population: it would be better, of course, to evacuate it from the point of view of humanitarian law, since the fighting will be conducted near the city, a lot of things will fly into the city anyway.

9/ "But this is already on Zelensky's conscience, if he has one at all. I think he does not.

"Now, as for the offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region. There, the enemy continues to implement its favorite strategy of exchanging territories for a while.

10/ "There will be no strategic breakthrough in the direction in which Russian troops are advancing.

11/ "At least, the enemy is not threatened by this, he considers it possible for himself to gradually, by battle, very slowly leave territories that have no strategic significance for the outcome of the war.

12/ "Therefore, unfortunately, once again – all actions of Russian troops are predictable, calculated in advance by the enemy, measures are taken to counteract.

13/ "And I think that the situation with a high degree of probability will be an exact copy of the events of 2024, when the enemy first repelled our offensive in the Kharkiv region, in the Donetsk region for more than two months.

14/ "And by the end of the summer, he launched a brazen counterattack, which ended in a seven-month battle in the Kursk region. With a high probability, this is exactly what will happen." /end

Source:
t.me/strelkovii/7093