In 2022, after failing to quickly capitulate Ukraine, the Russians completely withdrew their forces from the north of the country, concentrating everything on the east.
In September of the same year, though, the Ukrainians found a weak spot in Russia's groupment of forces in the Kharkiv Oblast', and decided to strike with great force, collapsing the front for 100km in the famous Kharkiv counteroffensive.
After this incredible victory, the Ukrainians started planning and accumulating resources to attempt a further counteroffensive, this time in multiple sectors of the frontline.
As such, Russia almost completely switched to a defensive posture, only limiting their offensives to a couple of their most promising directions, as for example Bakhmut.
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The Surovikin line takes its name from Russian general Sergey Surovikin, that had this line built immediately after the already discussed Ukrainian Kharkiv counteroffensive.
The Surovikin line is the most extensive set of fortifications built since the end of WW2, and it stretches for a colossal 2000km from Belarus to the Dnipro river's delta. Since September 2022, construction continued at full speed until early 2024, only then slowing down because of their renewed offensives and switch of focus from defensive to offensive. But even since then, construction has always been ongoing, with the Russians very slowly extending their fortifications and reinforcing currently existing ones.
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Because of the sheer number of total fortifications built, it has not been possible for anyone as of now to map the Surovikin Line in full resolution, as such excluding a very big number of smaller trench systems, that, contrary to popular belief, were the one of the main reasons of the failure of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive. Furthermore, the maps that are currently used the most online have been made using old satellite imagery, and are missing an enormous amount of newly built fortifications and upgrades to older ones.
This is why I decided to take the most famous slice of Ukraine at the times of the 2023 counteroffensive, the Tokmak slice (which includes Robotyne and Verbove, and goes from Orikhiv all the way to the Azov Sea), and to map it in full resolution.
In this dataset, every single foxhole is mapped. Every single dragon's tooth, every single anti-tank ditch, from the smallest to the biggest. Every artillery emplacement, every hidden trench system under the trees, every road barricade. The smallest features do not exceed a meter in length.
The total dimension of the dataset is 31,000 features (1/6 of what I had mapped for all of Ukraine), or 4MB of pure, compressed trenches.
Used satellites: ESRI, Planet; in the picture @projectowlosint's map
Let's dive in.
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Here is my work in full, revealing the full structure of this section of the Surovikin Line.
You can clearly see the slice I was talking about. 3 rings are visible: at 1/3 (north to south) on the left you can see the Orikhiv defensive ring, at 1/2 on the right is the Ocheretuvate node, and just southwest of it is Tokmak, which also has its own defensive ring.
The "ring" trend is particularly common in Russia's defensive works, as most of the biggest cities are usually surrounded by an independent fortification line.
In the picture below you can easily distinguish these fortifications.
Starting from the north, let's analyze the 2022-2023 static frontline positions.
After the start of the full-scale invasion, the Russians quickly captured most of Zaporizhzhia Oblast's fields, and the Ukrainians were only able to stop them at the Kamyanske - Vuhledar line. This sector is one of the parts of this front line that remained dormant until the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive.
In this sector, the contact line froze at the H-08 Orikhiv-Kam'yanka highway, and gave much time to both sides to manually dig in and significantly upgrade their trench systems.
In the picture is an example of these positions: small foxholes between trees evolved into very complex trench systems in the course of the months, constantly reinforced by both sides until the start of the counteroffensive. Obviously, both sides dug fallback trench systems and positions, which makes this "zone" somewhat deeper than the contact line's width.
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Deeper we go, onto the next zone.
The next we find is what I call the "1° Intermediary line". I call it this because it is situated between the frontline fallback positions and the 1° Surovikin line, and because it is not a full-fledged line, as it was too close to the frontline to bring in heavy equipment to dig better trench systems, anti-tank ditches and place dragon's teeth.
The line, in this sector, counts on 3 pins: Kopani, Robotyne and Verbove.
This line has almost the same characteristics of the frontline positions, but with the added bonus of being better reinforced, as the engineers that dug these would've had to worry much less about enemy fire and surveillance. It is as such said that Robotyne was linked to the forests just east with a tunnel, that is the same one that significantly complicated Russian attacks after the counteroffensive's steam ended. But this has never been confirmed.
This line was meant to be the first actual significant obstacle for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and to absorb its first punch. It was not meant to hold, but to slightly slow down the Ukrainians in preparation for the withdrawal to the 1° Surovikin line.
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At this depth the fun finally starts: we encounter the 1° Surovikin line.
As you can see, the depth is sufficient enough to bring heavy machinery to work and to make more serious engineering works. Most of the line is made up of an anti-tank ditch, a dragon's teeth line and trench systems with dugouts at regular intervals. Behind the trenches are artillery/vehicle emplacements, also at regular intervals.
In the sections of the line when it is parallel to a treeline, it gets much more complex because of the given camouflage opportunities, and it gets even more reinforced and solid, with many covered parts and dugouts hidden in the trees. In some cases, communication trenches, too.
In some parts, though, the line can thin out, literally and in terms of complexity, with only a simple trench system with periodical dugouts being present. This is the case of the Novoprokopivka - Verbove section, which might be one of the reasons of why Ukraine chose to attack here.
This line was meant to be the one that "tanked" the first hit and slowed down the Ukrainian train, because as we know the Surovikin system is a layered one.
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Immediately after the 1° Surovikin line, we encounter the 2° Intermediary. This line was meant to not give Ukrainians breathing and maneuvering room after they captured the 1° Surovikin line and to prepare, again, for another Ukrainian punch to the 2° Surovikin line further south.
Just like the 1° Intermediary line, there's not that much to say. The line is composed of a simple trench with some emplacements behind. This time even dugouts are not present, only appearing when this line is parallel with nearby treelines.
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And now we reach the "most fun part".
At a depth of about 15-25km lies the 2° and final Surovikin line. This is the line that had to hold. If the other lines were meant to fall, this wasn't, which is why the Russians put a big amount of effort in building it.
Just like the 1° Surovikin, the 2° Surovikin is composed of an anti-tank ditch, a dragon's teeth line and the trenches, but with some peculiarities.
First of all, at least in this section of the front, they were completely covered. If in the 1° Surovikin we could see some covered ways in specific cases, this line is covered from head to toe.
Then, a big amount of firing positions emerging.
Further, a ton of dugouts to house the great number of personnel that would've all retreated and converged to this line of defense.
And finally, many, many emplacements.
Of the 2° Surovikin is also part the Ocheretuvate ring, as you can see from the picture.
In particular, it is composed of trench systems of the same exact style as the 2° Surovikin line, except that they're independent and always "hug treelines".
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And finally, at 30km of depth, we reach the Tokmak ring - Tokmak river defensive system.
This system was meant to be a strong - and last - fallback line before endless fields, offering less resistance. Even if it is a fallback line, it counts on the very sizeable Tokmak city as a pin, and the Tokmak river with the dominant heights behind. If the Tokmak ring is mostly finished, with its trenches that are extremely similar to the Ocheretuvate ring style, the Tokmak river defenses, even if more numerous in number, are weaker, only consisting of small fighting positions and emplacements in the thousands of treelines and foxholes that have still not been joined together to form a single trench directly guarding the river shore.
Almost all of these little emplacements were not built/were invisible when the most recent satellite imagery we have for the area was taken, so the only way to map them is with Planet or Sentinel satellites, which is exactly what I painfully did for most of the time.
I won't bother to show the Tokmak ring defenses, as they're basically the same as the Ocheretuvate ring defenses, as said.
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But there is still something missing. Something that most of the analyst continue to miss today about the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive and recent times.
The hundreds, if not thousands, of kilometers of "guts", which are complex trench systems extending in the middle of every single treeline, and even foxholes and singular dugouts, all the way to Tokmak.
These were one of the biggest reasons of why the counteroffensive failed.
The Russians knew that they were rapidly losing territory, but they also knew they could count on their numbers. Numbers that let them win the attrition war. And numbers that were transferred into hidden trenches, that the Ukrainians would have to spend thousands of artillery rounds to uncover and destroy.
The big lines could've been very useful, yes, but they were not the idea that Surovikin had in the first place.
This is the actual Surovikin line.
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Thank you so much for reading this thread.
Countless hours and massive effort went into this project, so if you would like to support me, this is the best time to do so, even through a simple repost and follow :)
The Zolotyi Kolodyaz catastrophe. For whoever is asking "what the hell", "why" and "how".
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This thread will be more raw than the others. No sugarcoating, 101% objectivity.
As discussed in my previous thread, there are multiple reasons for this breakthrough, the main of which are:
- completely inadequate command
- sheer amount of Russian resources that were committed
- Ukrainian disorganization
- New Russian mobile groups that simply bypass scattered Ukrainian resistance points.
This breakthrough was NOT opened because of 1 reason in particular, but all of them.
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The main tactic of the Russians in this direction is almost completely based on infantry, very likely with motorized "attachments" like bikes and motorcycles. No mechanized component was noticed.
At the moment, according to my information, the breakthrough is packed full of Russian foot infantry, who are accumulating, we can easily guess, without any type of Ukrainian resistance, and then, with the same amount of resistance, simply walking or having a motorcycle ride to new positions further north.
At Zolotyi Kolodyaz', Russia 🇷🇺 had first contact with Ukraine 🇺🇦's New Donbas Line, and its DRGs broke through it for the first time, with the Ukrainians suffering from catastrophic manpower shortages.
In the long term, this might endanger all of Ukrainian-controlled Donbas.
A damage assessment and technical strategical overview of the situation.
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The story starts on July 21th, when, according to DeepState, Russian DRGs were recorded east of Nove Shakhove.
Everything has been kept quiet since then, with neither side releasing any information whatsoever, and with my sources, too, fully respecting operational silence.
Despite this, in the "dark", the Russians kept creeping forward and continued to send more and more DRGs deeper, eventually rendering the situation similar to what we have in Pokrovsk, where Russian DRGs are constantly recorded and destroyed even in the center of the city. Progressively, the breakthrough was expanded on all sides.
As of the evening of August 6th, local channels finally reported shooting battles in Zolotyi Kolodyaz, 7km from the last known Russian position.
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Let's break down the confusion on what exactly causes these breakthroughs. I identified 4 reasons:
1. Catastrophic manpower shortage in the Ukrainian ranks in this sector, initiating a loop of disorganized retreat ---> Russian breakthroughs ---> lengthening of the front ---> manpower shortage ---> disorganized retreat.
In this specific case we can name Koptieve, settlement from which the Ukrainians retreated in terrible order in mid-June. From there, the Russians exploited a hole that formed in Razine behind the Kazenyi Torets river, and continued without much resistance all the way until the doors of Rodynske, where at the time of writing they have been effectively stopped.
An analysis of the current tactical situation in the city and on its flanks, especially focusing on the Rodynske flank (right), and what has been prepared in all these months behind the city.
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Early May 2025, the Russians prepare the all-or nothing push on Pokrovsk's right flank, concentrating enormous amounts of infantry and equipment.
A motorcycle assault breaks through to Novoolenivka on May 1st, and the flower blooms. The Russians immediately commit their reserves and attack absolutely everything. Every single field, every single settlement.
Malynivka and Yablunivka are entered a week later, Nova Poltavka falls 2 weeks after Novoolenivka, opening the way to Poltavka, and Novoekonomichne, which a month ago was in the rear, is now threatened from 2 directions.
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But the actual breakthrough happens in mid June, when Koptieve, and most importantly, the trenches in front and around it, are lost.
The Russians sense a weak spot, and again commit everything they have in the sector.
At that time, they were able to significantly lengthen the front with their spearhead, sending the Ukrainians into a catastrophic infantry shortage, but most critically, complete disorganization in the drone operators' ranks. My "prayers", unfortunately, were not listened to (x.com/Playfra0/statu…).
At the end of June 2025, #Russia 🇷🇺 is attempting to unify the Komar and Novopavlivka directions, but #Ukraine 🇺🇦 built a formidable defensive line to prevent this. Very soon, it will finally see utility.
Analysing the tactical-strategical situation and Ukrainian fortifications in the area, as well as predictions for future developments.
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The problems in this directions arose in early June, when the Ukrainians left only a rearguard in Bahatyr and the Russians broke through to Komar and Fedorivka. Because of this breakthrough, the Ukrainians were forced to temporarily divert their attention there, leaving an open window for the Russians to dash further through the vast fields of the region.
And indeed, on June 9th, DeepState reported that Russians were able to fly in between Dachne and Zaporizhzhia, but were destroyed.
On June 11th, the Russians tried again, and succeeded, crossing the Vovcha river between Dachne and Novoukrainka and entering for the second time the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast'.
After this series of breakthroughs, the Russians consolidated their bridgehead to attack Zaporizhzhia, and on June 12th the battle began and lasted 11 days, ending on June 23rd, with the Russians demonstrating their flags in the center of the village.
These breakthroughs formed numerous pockets and inconvenient positions for the Ukrainians, and the Russians are also threatening to cross the Mokri Yali and Vovcha rivers to get behind Ukrainian positions in even more areas, as well as breaching the main Ukrainian defensive line in front of Ivanivka, which we will analyze soon.
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Let's look at this breakthrough in more detail. In its western part, the Russians were only able to capture Perebudova, using the dense urban area as cover for their advancements, but are suffering losses in trying to move further west to Myrne because of Ukrainian drone operators tightly controlling the open area in between the 2 settlements.
As you can see from the photo below, the Ukrainians were able to hastily reinforce Myrne with a line of barbed wire (in light gray) east of the settlement, too, which, behind the Tonka river, further complicates Russian movement here.
Way up North, #Russia 🇷🇺 opened a new front at #Sumy, hoping to get close enough to the city to control its supply routes and shell it, but #Ukraine 🇺🇦 is opposing fierce resistance, aided by the strong brigades and natural obstacles.
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After the capture of Sverdlikovo and Nikolayevo-Daryino, Kursk Oblast', already in early February 2025, Russian forces started attacking southwards across the state border towards Novenke and in the fields between Zhuravka and Basivka.
After some small initial successes, they got rapidly bogged down because of Ukrainian drone crews that were freely hunting them in the open fields and the number of capable brigades that had just retreated from the Kursk salient and regrouped around that area.
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Seeing that they were effectively stuck, the Russians decided to do what they can do best: lengthen the front, exploiting their superior resources, and threatening with encirclement the Ukrainian forces opposing them at the original frontline.
Facing what was described as a horde of Russian infantry along this frontline, the Ukrainians had to retreat further back.
Though, this retreat was not properly conducted or orderly, and the Russians were able to exploit more than a gap to advance further than the Ukrainians expected.
Against renewed #Russian 🇷🇺 attack efforts, #Ukraine 🇺🇦 has not been idle, and is currently building the New Donbas Line, which stretches from #Kharkiv city to #VilnePole (#Zaporizhzhia), and which is the fruit of years of drone war experience and, finally, error correction.
In some sections, it's already capable of withstanding full-force #Russian attacks.
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After 1.5 years of total offensive on much of Ukraine's territory, Russia is seemingly not intending to decrease the pace of their assaults, and on the contrary are renewing offensive actions on the South Donetsk, Novopavlivka, Kostyantynivka, Siversk, Lyman and Sumy.
In contrast, though, the Ukrainians have not been watching and sleeping all this time, and have brought big reinforcements in the critical Kostyantynivka direction, and, focus of this thread, have been digging a brand new Donbas Line.
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The first parts of this line were constructed back in early March, and the Ukrainians have been building and reinforcing non-stop since then.
We trench mappers call it the New Donbas Line because it covers a massive 350 km: from Kharkiv city itself to Pechenihy east, to Shevchenkove west of Kupyansk and all the way down to Izyum, then west of Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, at Zolotyi Kolodiaz, north of Dobropillia, Slovyanka, Mezhova, Havrylivka and, finally, Vilne Pole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.