The default assumption that this theatre suddenly means that 'Iran and Israel are in bed with each other', or 'working together',
is a blatant sign of not understanding anything about geopolitics.
Iran and Israel are not friends. They're not working together. They are enemies. But yes, this is a geopolitical theatre and a highly coordinated performance between the two.
This contradiction can coexist.
Here’s the why and the how.
The region's relevant players, prior to Oct 7th, can be described as a four-player game.
Iran, Israel, the GCC and the US. Each pursuing separate interests more or less.
Iran's position has been regime survival, sanctions relief, Shia-Axis influence and dominance via proxies, along with nuclear ambitions. Iran has leveraged Israels existence resourcefully to maximize this dominance.
Israel’s position has been total ethnic cleansing in Palestine and continued US aid to weather domestic chaos as it seeks that objective. It has used Iran's axis to justify its constant aggression.
The GCC’s position has been oil market stability, regional stability, vassalization through soft power, and hedging between US and emerging BRICS.
The US position is the simplest to understand. I commonly use the term transnational private sector (TPS) in place of the US. Because that's all the US is; Private Sector power that operates across all borders. They chase MIC/FIC profits by any means possible. Be it vassalization, militancy, economic subjugation. Whatever.
That's your four regional players; Iran, Israel, the GCC, the TPS.
___
The first step to understanding the current theatre, in which almost everyone missed, is the preceding state realignment that occurred years prior.
The GCC, led by Saudi Arabia, struck a deal with Khamenei and his inner circle to abandon Iran’s Axis proxies. The 2023 Saudi-Iran detente sealed their alignment. The GCC offered trade access and mediation, while Iran agreed to let proxies bleed out.
The payoff works for both sides. Iran secures economic survival and regime stability, while the GCC tames a rival, boosting oil market control while obtaining indirect influence over Iran's proxies.
This alignment meant that Khameini pivoted to state interests over proxy objectives. To manage this pivot, proxy leadership had to be dealt with.
This is what I mean by State-Proxy divergence.
This isn't the first time states do this. If you understand geopolitics, this is a common occurrence.
There's generally two ways to deal with proxy leaders. Snuff them out internally. Or expend them in a war like Oct 7th.
The former raises too many questions for far too many reasons that can destabilize states from top to bottom. The latter, is the most resourceful, rational approach.
Whether you believe Iran would do this or not, depends on how ideologically intertwined you are with that country and what it represents to you growing up.
But the fact is, whether it’s Iran or Alaska, state interest sits above all proxy plays, religion and ideologies. It's embarrassingly immature to think otherwise. This State-Proxy divergence is playing out right in front of your eyes.
Decapitation after decapitation.
If proxy leaders held any value at all, Iran would not risk them so blatantly out in the open for Israel to assassinate them. Stop falling for the Mossad psyop.
The cold reality is that the proxy leaders are time-sensitive assets. And in this game, they have fundamentally outlived their usefulness.
___
Now on the other side of the table, the TPS has been sitting on the sidelines observing the new convergence between Iran and regional powers.
When Oct 7th happened, the TPS has been closely measuring Israel's probability of totally cleansing / displacing Palestinians and annexing Gaza. As the cabinet increasingly failed to achieve their displacement objective, the TPS began making arrangements and deals to secure a new profit pathway in the Middle East as a consequence of this systemic convergence between Iran and the regional powers.
This arrangement entailed the retraction of MIC, the adoption of the GCC’s vision, and the formation of "Palestine Emerging" initiative, spearheaded by Mckinsey directors, FIC titans (your Larry Fink, Dimon and Schwarzman) and the GCC.
The TPS correctly anticipated Israel's failure and as a consequence, projected that its MIC profits will be drying up in the Middle East, and there is nothing they can do about it.
As result of this, rhetoric has gradually shifted in support of Palestine. And the TPS has slowly began to tame the Israeli cabinet same way the GCC tamed the Islamic Republic. The TPS has cornered Netanyahu to ditch Israel’s hawkish cabinet (your smotrich, ben gvir), a liability pushing total war rhetoric and risking TPS profits.
Netanyahu’s coalition is fracturing, and he has a clear exit plan, provided he paves the way for a post-war transition.
The payoff, again, works for both sides. The TPS locks in profits and control, while Netanyahu buys an exit, dodging the aftermath and accountability of what comes next.
Netanyahu agreed with the TPS, same way Khameini agreed with the GCC years ago.
These backchannel alignments are (semi) positive-sum plays where the GCC and TPS have exploited weaker players’ vulnerabilities (Iran’s economy, Israel’s chaos) to align them with their broader goals.
Broader goals that the GCC and TPS both now share.
And this shared goal has been locked and backed with hundreds of billions of dollars.
Peace and Prosperity.
Ok.
So you now suddenly have a four player board where 2 players (Iran and Israel) are experiencing an internal power fracture in which the kingpins have shifted alliances toward the other 2 players (the GCC and the TPS).
Khameini shifted to the GCC and now needs to manage the Axis hardliners. Netanyahu has shifted to the TPS and now needs to manage the Cabinet hardliners.
This realignment shattered the existing four player equilibrium and heavily tilted the scales to one side occupied by two players (the GCC and the TPS) who both have the same agenda and hold all the power. In my observation, it’s this shattered equilibrium that’s sending shockwaves across many geopolitical analysts who are failing to make any sense of what’s going on.
On the back of these Khameini/Netanyahu realignments, the negotiations between the GCC and TPS, spearheaded by their shared goal, led to the collective approval of Iranian normalization and the removal of the Israeli cabinet. And their respective commanders (Khameini and Netanyahu), already aligned, have jumped ship.
This approval, led to the GCC and TPS, to conduct an episode of regional transition to usher in their shared vision for the region.
This transition is the geopolitical theatre you are witnessing.
The commanders, Khameini and Netanyahu are both receiving instructions from the GCC and the TPS on how to best manage their hardliners out the door and contain the "war" without any uncontrolled escalation.
This is WHY there's a theatre at play that's appearing to be very scripted. Because there's alignment at the top. It's not because Iran and Israel are in bed together. It's because they have conceded power to the GCC and TPS who both share the same end goal.
This is why the GCC is sitting idly doing "nothing". When in reality, they've recruited Khameini as their military commander to oversee the de-militarization of Iran. This is why the US is denying involvement in these strikes, when in reality they are maneuvering Netanyahu for the de-militarization of Israel.
People view Netanyahu's strike on Iran as a declaration of war. When in reality, its a signal of his agreement to join the table with Khameini, for a post-war transition.
And I know some of you will think that the GCC betrayed the Muslim world by dealing with the TPS. And we can argue on that back and forth indefinitely to no avail. But in short; what you have constructed in your head is not geopolitics. It's unattainable utopia. Take my advice and exit geopolitics.
Otherwise, understand that this is how geopolitics works. It's how power works. It oscillates constantly. It's fluid. Everyone always is simultaneously your friend and your enemy at once, at any given point in time.
___
Ultimately, this four player dynamic has collapsed into a three player game,
where the GCC, the TPS, Khameini and Netanyahu have all MOLDED into becoming a SINGLE dominant player,
with the Axis as the second player,
and the Cabinet as the third player.
The dominant player is conducting a geopolitical theatre, with Khameini and Netanyahu as the commanders, executing a divestment exercise to phase out player 2 and 3.
These theatrical strikes are a top-down mechanisms to facilitate militancy purge while managing optics. This top-down force is squeezing the military components of Iran and Israel to “fight it off” in a staged brawl, killing what's become undesirable liabilities in the region and aligning them with the “peace and prosperity” script.
This is not war.
It's house cleaning. Crowd management. Liability divestment. Controlled transition. Normalization optics. Demilitarization. De-nuclearization.
And the liberation of Gaza.
It's unprecedented consolidation in the heart of the Muslim World.
is a blatant sign of not understanding anything about geopolitics.
Iran and Israel are not friends. They're not working together. They are enemies. But yes, this is a geopolitical theatre and a highly coordinated performance between the two.
This contradiction can coexist.
Here’s the why and the how.
The region's relevant players, prior to Oct 7th, can be described as a four-player game.
Iran, Israel, the GCC and the US. Each pursuing separate interests more or less.
Iran's position has been regime survival, sanctions relief, Shia-Axis influence and dominance via proxies, along with nuclear ambitions. Iran has leveraged Israels existence resourcefully to maximize this dominance.
Israel’s position has been total ethnic cleansing in Palestine and continued US aid to weather domestic chaos as it seeks that objective. It has used Iran's axis to justify its constant aggression.
The GCC’s position has been oil market stability, regional stability, vassalization through soft power, and hedging between US and emerging BRICS.
The US position is the simplest to understand. I commonly use the term transnational private sector (TPS) in place of the US. Because that's all the US is; Private Sector power that operates across all borders. They chase MIC/FIC profits by any means possible. Be it vassalization, militancy, economic subjugation. Whatever.
That's your four regional players; Iran, Israel, the GCC, the TPS.
___
The first step to understanding the current theatre, in which almost everyone missed, is the preceding state realignment that occurred years prior.
The GCC, led by Saudi Arabia, struck a deal with Khamenei and his inner circle to abandon Iran’s Axis proxies. The 2023 Saudi-Iran detente sealed their alignment. The GCC offered trade access and mediation, while Iran agreed to let proxies bleed out.
The payoff works for both sides. Iran secures economic survival and regime stability, while the GCC tames a rival, boosting oil market control while obtaining indirect influence over Iran's proxies.
This alignment meant that Khameini pivoted to state interests over proxy objectives. To manage this pivot, proxy leadership had to be dealt with.
This is what I mean by State-Proxy divergence.
This isn't the first time states do this. If you understand geopolitics, this is a common occurrence.
There's generally two ways to deal with proxy leaders. Snuff them out internally. Or expend them in a war like Oct 7th.
The former raises too many questions for far too many reasons that can destabilize states from top to bottom. The latter, is the most resourceful, rational approach.
Whether you believe Iran would do this or not, depends on how ideologically intertwined you are with that country and what it represents to you growing up.
But the fact is, whether it’s Iran or Alaska, state interest sits above all proxy plays, religion and ideologies. It's embarrassingly immature to think otherwise. This State-Proxy divergence is playing out right in front of your eyes.
Decapitation after decapitation.
If proxy leaders held any value at all, Iran would not risk them so blatantly out in the open for Israel to assassinate them. Stop falling for the Mossad psyop.
The cold reality is that the proxy leaders are time-sensitive assets. And in this game, they have fundamentally outlived their usefulness.
___
Now on the other side of the table, the TPS has been sitting on the sidelines observing the new convergence between Iran and regional powers.
When Oct 7th happened, the TPS has been closely measuring Israel's probability of totally cleansing / displacing Palestinians and annexing Gaza. As the cabinet increasingly failed to achieve their displacement objective, the TPS began making arrangements and deals to secure a new profit pathway in the Middle East as a consequence of this systemic convergence between Iran and the regional powers.
This arrangement entailed the retraction of MIC, the adoption of the GCC’s vision, and the formation of "Palestine Emerging" initiative, spearheaded by Mckinsey directors, FIC titans (your Larry Fink, Dimon and Schwarzman) and the GCC.
The TPS correctly anticipated Israel's failure and as a consequence, projected that its MIC profits will be drying up in the Middle East, and there is nothing they can do about it.
As result of this, rhetoric has gradually shifted in support of Palestine. And the TPS has slowly began to tame the Israeli cabinet same way the GCC tamed the Islamic Republic. The TPS has cornered Netanyahu to ditch Israel’s hawkish cabinet (your smotrich, ben gvir), a liability pushing total war rhetoric and risking TPS profits.
Netanyahu’s coalition is fracturing, and he has a clear exit plan, provided he paves the way for a post-war transition.
The payoff, again, works for both sides. The TPS locks in profits and control, while Netanyahu buys an exit, dodging the aftermath and accountability of what comes next.
Netanyahu agreed with the TPS, same way Khameini agreed with the GCC years ago.
These backchannel alignments are (semi) positive-sum plays where the GCC and TPS have exploited weaker players’ vulnerabilities (Iran’s economy, Israel’s chaos) to align them with their broader goals.
Broader goals that the GCC and TPS both now share.
And this shared goal has been locked and backed with hundreds of billions of dollars.
Peace and Prosperity.
Ok.
So you now suddenly have a four player board where 2 players (Iran and Israel) are experiencing an internal power fracture in which the kingpins have shifted alliances toward the other 2 players (the GCC and the TPS).
Khameini shifted to the GCC and now needs to manage the Axis hardliners. Netanyahu has shifted to the TPS and now needs to manage the Cabinet hardliners.
This realignment shattered the existing four player equilibrium and heavily tilted the scales to one side occupied by two players (the GCC and the TPS) who both have the same agenda and hold all the power. In my observation, it’s this shattered equilibrium that’s sending shockwaves across many geopolitical analysts who are failing to make any sense of what’s going on.
On the back of these Khameini/Netanyahu realignments, the negotiations between the GCC and TPS, spearheaded by their shared goal, led to the collective approval of Iranian normalization and the removal of the Israeli cabinet. And their respective commanders (Khameini and Netanyahu), already aligned, have jumped ship.
This approval, led to the GCC and TPS, to conduct an episode of regional transition to usher in their shared vision for the region.
This transition is the geopolitical theatre you are witnessing.
The commanders, Khameini and Netanyahu are both receiving instructions from the GCC and the TPS on how to best manage their hardliners out the door and contain the "war" without any uncontrolled escalation.
This is WHY there's a theatre at play that's appearing to be very scripted. Because there's alignment at the top. It's not because Iran and Israel are in bed together. It's because they have conceded power to the GCC and TPS who both share the same end goal.
This is why the GCC is sitting idly doing "nothing". When in reality, they've recruited Khameini as their military commander to oversee the de-militarization of Iran. This is why the US is denying involvement in these strikes, when in reality they are maneuvering Netanyahu for the de-militarization of Israel.
People view Netanyahu's strike on Iran as a declaration of war. When in reality, its a signal of his agreement to join the table with Khameini, for a post-war transition.
And I know some of you will think that the GCC betrayed the Muslim world by dealing with the TPS. And we can argue on that back and forth indefinitely to no avail. But in short; what you have constructed in your head is not geopolitics. It's unattainable utopia. Take my advice and exit geopolitics.
Otherwise, understand that this is how geopolitics works. It's how power works. It oscillates constantly. It's fluid. Everyone always is simultaneously your friend and your enemy at once, at any given point in time.
___
Ultimately, this four player dynamic has collapsed into a three player game,
where the GCC, the TPS, Khameini and Netanyahu have all MOLDED into becoming a SINGLE dominant player,
with the Axis as the second player,
and the Cabinet as the third player.
The dominant player is conducting a geopolitical theatre, with Khameini and Netanyahu as the commanders, executing a divestment exercise to phase out player 2 and 3.
These theatrical strikes are a top-down mechanisms to facilitate militancy purge while managing optics. This top-down force is squeezing the military components of Iran and Israel to “fight it off” in a staged brawl, killing what's become undesirable liabilities in the region and aligning them with the “peace and prosperity” script.
This is not war.
It's house cleaning. Crowd management. Liability divestment. Controlled transition. Normalization optics. Demilitarization. De-nuclearization.
And the liberation of Gaza.
It's unprecedented consolidation in the heart of the Muslim World.
If my analysis doesn't sit well with you, calling me a Gulf apologist, or a Zionist agent achieves absolutely nothing. Instead, what you can do, is remain calm and counter it by making your case.
Try and analyze objectvely and propose a rebuttal. Show me your line of thinking. Demonstrate first principle understanding. Otherwise you’re not worth responding to because you’re either not coming to me with your own work, or engaging in bad faith.
And I have said this before.
If you don't know who you're talking to, then you don't know who and what they know. And you don't know who is reading.
The cost of taking a discourteous position right from the outset, without putting any effort into understanding beyond surface level thinking, is you choosing to sever all kinds of future dialogue that can lead to valuable contacts and connections.
Especially in this new emerging world.
Conduct yourself.
Try and analyze objectvely and propose a rebuttal. Show me your line of thinking. Demonstrate first principle understanding. Otherwise you’re not worth responding to because you’re either not coming to me with your own work, or engaging in bad faith.
And I have said this before.
If you don't know who you're talking to, then you don't know who and what they know. And you don't know who is reading.
The cost of taking a discourteous position right from the outset, without putting any effort into understanding beyond surface level thinking, is you choosing to sever all kinds of future dialogue that can lead to valuable contacts and connections.
Especially in this new emerging world.
Conduct yourself.
I'll check back on comments a while later.
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