I think a major 'theme' of my account is that the world is rarely surprising or overwhelmingly complex, that most things are ordinary and not mysterious when you look at them closely.
A short review thread🧵
My latest article is about how major breaks in trends usually signal that the data changed rather than that the world changed.
There are few exceptions. One of them is vaccination, which genuinely does cause a massive break in disease incidence:
At one point in time, I believed a common, "received" piece of knowledge: that Nigerians were a "special" immigrant group that perform "exceptionally".
Someone here told me I was wrong, that I should look into that. So I did, and, indeed, I was wrong.
One of the reasons I'm bullish on Eli Lilly over Novo Nordisk is that I don't think Novo can hack it against a much more R&D-focused American company run by a shrewd corporate climber.
Novo seems like its leadership is much more naïve.
Eli Lilly's investments just seem to be superior to Novo's, which have mostly been falling through recently.
The best Novo seems capable of doing now is mimicking Eli Lilly's next drug, retatrutide.
If they were smart, they would do some collaborations.