1) Here's a quick example of how the federal government is censoring the best scientific research. It's not just cuts to ongoing research.
It's new grant submissions too...
2) In January, I re-submitted a promising Covid/cancer grant to a non-federal funder. Hundreds of pages. Hundreds of hours of work. The best proposal I've submitted as a scientist.
Out of curiosity, I used Sean Mullen's Scan Assist tool to see how many banned words it had...
3) The proposal had 1,750 banned words. No big deal -- they're non-federal.
BUT I had planned to submit a smaller version to NIH this month as a "back up." Impossible!
It's not a matter of using a thesaurus or the find/replace command. The grant is on *Covid*...
4) Covid is a banned word and -- because grants will be checked with natural language models -- a de facto banned *topic*.
Nobody in their right mind would submit a grant requiring tens or hundreds of hours on a work on a banned topic because...
5) Even if somehow it snuck through and got funded, it could get defunded at any moment when the topic became apparent.
Anything Covid, health disparities, environmental, etc. is DOA from a federal funding perspective.
BUT I wanted to submit something this cycle...
6) So I brainstormed what I could submit for the June 2025 deadlines. The least controversial idea was basically #17 on my list.
So, instead of the federal government supporting the best science or the 2nd best science or 3rd best science...
7) The federal government has banned so many words *and topics* that they are basically left with the 17th best science.
So, I wrote my proposal. It's cool stuff, old stuff I've been working on for the past 18 years, since a PhD student.
I'd rather work on the best science...
8) or the 2nd best science, etc. But it's a good study and would help a lot of people.
Each draft of each document, I used Scan Assist to verify that I didn't have any banned words.
9) but the funny thing was that even upon researching the least controversial 17th best idea on my list, banned words kept popping up.
A lot of these words could be used in a controversial context, but generally are not controversial. A few examples are...
10) "promote" (like promote better care), "barrier" (like overcome barriers to better care), "political" (like someone having an undergrad poli sci major 30 years ago on their biosketch), "bias" (like statistical measurement error), "continuum" (like levels of symptoms)...
11) It was really striking how many words pop up even in a non-controversial application.
My goal was to submit an application with ZERO banned words...
12) And today I submitted a federal grant application with ZERO banned words.
BUT this process censors topics (covid, health disparities, environment, LGBTQ health, etc.).
AND many apps will not be funded because they accidentally include banned words...
13) You can find Dr. Sean Mullen's Scan Assist tool here:
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/10
With CDC data operational again, the transmission map is back. The data are always a week old, so transmission is likely worse than depicted.
We estimate 1 in 116 people actively infectious and 422,000 new daily infections.
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/10
State level estimates are back. Note, the CDC changed their data processing approach in August, which tends to downplay transmission.
Does 1 in 45 in Indiana seem "moderate"?
Levels in MI may be mod/high (poor reporting).
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/10
State-level estimates (continued).
Current levels may be much higher than noted here. Note that CDC data are always at least a week old. The 2nd half of November is a time period historically of accelerating transmission.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
1/6🧵
🔹301,000 new daily infections based on wastewater-derived models
🔹1 in 162 people (0.6%) actively infectious
🔹Levels the past 2 months corrected upward by Biobot
🔹"Lull point" estimated between Nov 5-21. Rising soon.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
2/6🧵
The central estimate of the forecast suggests we will surpass 500,000 new daily infections on Nov 22.
There's a 25% chance of a prolonged lull like last year. More likely, we are in wave territory by the end of the month.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
3/6🧵
We are presently in a lull between the 11th and 12th wave. Now is the time to get boosted and stock up on N95 masks, tests, and air purifier filters.
The relative "lull" in SARS-CoV-2 transmission is unlikely to go much lower.
✨1 in 209 people are estimated actively infectious, likely the lowest levels of 2025 nationwide.
Get boosted. Stock up on masks, tests, & filters.
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
2 of 9 🧵
No data presently suggest the rise of a winter wave any earlier than "usual."
If following historical trends, transmission will pick up Nov 15-29. Last year's rise was atypically late.
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
3 of 9 🧵
Expect rising misinformation/disinformation as transmission heats up:
🔹Abuse of community notes, particularly surrounding wastewater methodology
🔹Paid bot army attacks, especially about boosters & masks
Transmission typically accelerates in mid-November.
We are currently in a relative 'lull.' We estimate about a quarter-million new daily infections with 1 in 185 people actively infectious. Still bad, likely to get worse.
1/9 🧵
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)
Our forecast through November 8 calls for flat transmission.
Nothing yet indicates the onset of a winter wave, but it would also be atypical for the lull to last much longer than another 2-3 weeks.
2/9 🧵
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)
We estimate 264,000 new daily infections during this 'lull' period.
Biobot data have returned. Our substitute data from WWS last week correlated r=.97 (near perfect) with that, but Biobot did retroactively increase recent estimates.
SARS-CoV-2 transmission has fallen.
🔹1 in 191 (0.5%) actively infectious
🔹"Lull" levels at 20% of the summer peak
🔹255,000 new daily infections (still concerning)
Many will knock out higher-risk activities the next 2-4 weeks.
🧵1/11
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)
"Lull" transmission remains dangerous:
🔹1.8 million estimated new weekly infections
🔹>90,000 estimated new #LongCOVID conditions from this week's infections
🔹>500 excess deaths to result from this week's infections
🧵2/11
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)
Exposure risk during "lull" transmission remains high when engaging in many social interactions.
Interacting with 25 people yields a 12% chance of exposure. 100 people? 41% chance of exposure, assuming no testing/isolation.
The PMC website includes an international directory of websites with COVlD wastewater monitoring. It is more up to date than the directories of the EU and WHO.
Let's review what's happening in Europe...
1/
Data in #Austria show a rising COVlD wave. The x axis (bottom) has infrequent labels, but the data shown go through October 8th.