Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jun 16 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1) Here's a quick example of how the federal government is censoring the best scientific research. It's not just cuts to ongoing research.

It's new grant submissions too... "No forbidden words found"
2) In January, I re-submitted a promising Covid/cancer grant to a non-federal funder. Hundreds of pages. Hundreds of hours of work. The best proposal I've submitted as a scientist.

Out of curiosity, I used Sean Mullen's Scan Assist tool to see how many banned words it had...
3) The proposal had 1,750 banned words. No big deal -- they're non-federal.

BUT I had planned to submit a smaller version to NIH this month as a "back up." Impossible!

It's not a matter of using a thesaurus or the find/replace command. The grant is on *Covid*... 1,750 banned words found
4) Covid is a banned word and -- because grants will be checked with natural language models -- a de facto banned *topic*.

Nobody in their right mind would submit a grant requiring tens or hundreds of hours on a work on a banned topic because...
5) Even if somehow it snuck through and got funded, it could get defunded at any moment when the topic became apparent.

Anything Covid, health disparities, environmental, etc. is DOA from a federal funding perspective.

BUT I wanted to submit something this cycle...
6) So I brainstormed what I could submit for the June 2025 deadlines. The least controversial idea was basically #17 on my list.

So, instead of the federal government supporting the best science or the 2nd best science or 3rd best science...
7) The federal government has banned so many words *and topics* that they are basically left with the 17th best science.

So, I wrote my proposal. It's cool stuff, old stuff I've been working on for the past 18 years, since a PhD student.

I'd rather work on the best science...
8) or the 2nd best science, etc. But it's a good study and would help a lot of people.

Each draft of each document, I used Scan Assist to verify that I didn't have any banned words.

You can find a curated list here btw....
pen.org/banned-words-l…
9) but the funny thing was that even upon researching the least controversial 17th best idea on my list, banned words kept popping up.

A lot of these words could be used in a controversial context, but generally are not controversial. A few examples are...
10) "promote" (like promote better care), "barrier" (like overcome barriers to better care), "political" (like someone having an undergrad poli sci major 30 years ago on their biosketch), "bias" (like statistical measurement error), "continuum" (like levels of symptoms)...
11) It was really striking how many words pop up even in a non-controversial application.

My goal was to submit an application with ZERO banned words...
12) And today I submitted a federal grant application with ZERO banned words.

BUT this process censors topics (covid, health disparities, environment, LGBTQ health, etc.).

AND many apps will not be funded because they accidentally include banned words... "No forbidden words found"
13) You can find Dr. Sean Mullen's Scan Assist tool here:


Please share the tool and my example. Thanks!tinyurl.com/scanassist

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More from @michael_hoerger

Nov 23
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/10

With CDC data operational again, the transmission map is back. The data are always a week old, so transmission is likely worse than depicted.

We estimate 1 in 116 people actively infectious and 422,000 new daily infections. Heat map: Indiana and Arkansas with "moderate" transmission. All others, "low" or "very low" (CDC categories).
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/10

State level estimates are back. Note, the CDC changed their data processing approach in August, which tends to downplay transmission.

Does 1 in 45 in Indiana seem "moderate"?

Levels in MI may be mod/high (poor reporting). Alabama	Very Low	1 in 153 (0.7%) Alaska	Very Low	1 in 272 (0.4%) Arizona	Low	1 in 63 (1.6%) Arkansas	Moderate*	1 in 47 (2.1%) California	Very Low	1 in 365 (0.3%) Colorado	Very Low	1 in 137 (0.7%) Connecticut	Low	1 in 103 (1.0%) Delaware	Very Low	1 in 262 (0.4%) District of Columbia	Very Low	1 in 418 (0.2%) Florida	Very Low	1 in 408 (0.2%) Georgia	Very Low	1 in 292 (0.3%) Guam	Very Low	1 in 887 (0.1%) Hawaii	Very Low	1 in 426 (0.2%) Idaho	Very Low	1 in 116 (0.9%) Illinois	Very Low	1 in 116 (0.9%) Indiana	Moderate	1 in 45 (2.2%) Iowa	Very Low	1 in 108 (0.9%) Kansas	Very Low	1 in 109 (0.9%) Ke...
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/10

State-level estimates (continued).

Current levels may be much higher than noted here. Note that CDC data are always at least a week old. The 2nd half of November is a time period historically of accelerating transmission. Missouri	Very Low	1 in 202 (0.5%) Montana	Very Low*	1 in 114 (0.9%) Nebraska	Low	1 in 95 (1.1%) Nevada	Very Low	1 in 228 (0.4%) New Hampshire	Low	1 in 78 (1.3%) New Jersey	Very Low	1 in 192 (0.5%) New Mexico	Very Low	1 in 151 (0.7%) New York	Very Low	1 in 212 (0.5%) North Carolina	Very Low	1 in 212 (0.5%) North Dakota	Very Low*	1 in 116 (0.9%) Ohio	Very Low	1 in 109 (0.9%) Oklahoma	Low*	1 in 70 (1.4%) Oregon	Very Low	1 in 194 (0.5%) Pennsylvania	Very Low	1 in 111 (0.9%) Rhode Island	Very Low	1 in 167 (0.6%) South Carolina	Very Low	1 in 112 (0.9%) South Dakota	Very Low	1 in 127 (0.8%) Tennes...
Read 10 tweets
Nov 8
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
1/6🧵

🔹301,000 new daily infections based on wastewater-derived models
🔹1 in 162 people (0.6%) actively infectious
🔹Levels the past 2 months corrected upward by Biobot
🔹"Lull point" estimated between Nov 5-21. Rising soon. Year over year graph, emphasizing that levels commonly rise in mid November
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
2/6🧵

The central estimate of the forecast suggests we will surpass 500,000 new daily infections on Nov 22.

There's a 25% chance of a prolonged lull like last year. More likely, we are in wave territory by the end of the month. Close up of the most recent 3 months of data, including the forecast.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
3/6🧵

We are presently in a lull between the 11th and 12th wave. Now is the time to get boosted and stock up on N95 masks, tests, and air purifier filters.

Do a DIY fit test if you've been putting it off. Graph of the 11 waves
Read 6 tweets
Nov 3
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
1 of 9 🧵

The relative "lull" in SARS-CoV-2 transmission is unlikely to go much lower.

✨1 in 209 people are estimated actively infectious, likely the lowest levels of 2025 nationwide.

Get boosted. Stock up on masks, tests, & filters. Year-over-year graph
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
2 of 9 🧵

No data presently suggest the rise of a winter wave any earlier than "usual."

If following historical trends, transmission will pick up Nov 15-29. Last year's rise was atypically late. Forecasted transmission
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
3 of 9 🧵

Expect rising misinformation/disinformation as transmission heats up:
🔹Abuse of community notes, particularly surrounding wastewater methodology
🔹Paid bot army attacks, especially about boosters & masks
Read 9 tweets
Oct 28
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

Transmission typically accelerates in mid-November.

We are currently in a relative 'lull.' We estimate about a quarter-million new daily infections with 1 in 185 people actively infectious. Still bad, likely to get worse.

1/9 🧵 year over year graph
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

Our forecast through November 8 calls for flat transmission.

Nothing yet indicates the onset of a winter wave, but it would also be atypical for the lull to last much longer than another 2-3 weeks.

2/9 🧵 Graph of recent transmission and current forecast
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

We estimate 264,000 new daily infections during this 'lull' period.

Biobot data have returned. Our substitute data from WWS last week correlated r=.97 (near perfect) with that, but Biobot did retroactively increase recent estimates.

3/9 🧵 Graph of the 11 waves of the pandemic
Read 9 tweets
Oct 21
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)

SARS-CoV-2 transmission has fallen.
🔹1 in 191 (0.5%) actively infectious
🔹"Lull" levels at 20% of the summer peak
🔹255,000 new daily infections (still concerning)

Many will knock out higher-risk activities the next 2-4 weeks.
🧵1/11 Graph of the 11 waves, shows current lull.
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)

"Lull" transmission remains dangerous:
🔹1.8 million estimated new weekly infections
🔹>90,000 estimated new #LongCOVID conditions from this week's infections
🔹>500 excess deaths to result from this week's infections

🧵2/11 Infections						 Proportion Actively Infectious										1 in 191 (0.5%) New Daily Infections										 255,000  Infections the Past Week										 1,800,000  Infections in 2025										 191,000,000  Cumulative Infections per Person										 4.69  										 Long COVID										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								13,000 to 51,000		   from New Daily Infections										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								90,000 to 360,000		   from New Weekly Infections										 										 Excess Deaths										 Excess Deaths Resulting 									70 to 120	   from New Daily Infections										 Excess Deaths ...
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)

Exposure risk during "lull" transmission remains high when engaging in many social interactions.

Interacting with 25 people yields a 12% chance of exposure. 100 people? 41% chance of exposure, assuming no testing/isolation.

🧵3/11 Number of People		Chances Anyone is Infectious		 1				0.5% 2				1.0% 3				1.6% 4				2.1% 5				2.6% 10				5.1% 15				7.6% 20				10.0% 25				12.3% 30				14.5% 50				23.1% 75				32.5% 100				40.8% 200				64.9% 300				79.2%
Read 11 tweets
Oct 11
PMC COVlD Wave Update (Europe)
11 October 2025 🧵

The PMC website includes an international directory of websites with COVlD wastewater monitoring. It is more up to date than the directories of the EU and WHO.

Let's review what's happening in Europe...

1/ world map, nations with surveillance shown in blue. URL says pmc19.com/global
Data in #Austria show a rising COVlD wave. The x axis (bottom) has infrequent labels, but the data shown go through October 8th.

Find more here:

2/ pmc19.com/austrialongitudinal graph
COVlD levels have been percolating in #Belgium, with "moderate" levels overall.

The transmission pattern is similar across regions. Plants at Namur-Brumagne and Oostende report "high" levels.



3/ pmc19.com/belgiumheat map and longitudinal graph
Read 20 tweets

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