1) Here's a quick example of how the federal government is censoring the best scientific research. It's not just cuts to ongoing research.
It's new grant submissions too...
2) In January, I re-submitted a promising Covid/cancer grant to a non-federal funder. Hundreds of pages. Hundreds of hours of work. The best proposal I've submitted as a scientist.
Out of curiosity, I used Sean Mullen's Scan Assist tool to see how many banned words it had...
3) The proposal had 1,750 banned words. No big deal -- they're non-federal.
BUT I had planned to submit a smaller version to NIH this month as a "back up." Impossible!
It's not a matter of using a thesaurus or the find/replace command. The grant is on *Covid*...
4) Covid is a banned word and -- because grants will be checked with natural language models -- a de facto banned *topic*.
Nobody in their right mind would submit a grant requiring tens or hundreds of hours on a work on a banned topic because...
5) Even if somehow it snuck through and got funded, it could get defunded at any moment when the topic became apparent.
Anything Covid, health disparities, environmental, etc. is DOA from a federal funding perspective.
BUT I wanted to submit something this cycle...
6) So I brainstormed what I could submit for the June 2025 deadlines. The least controversial idea was basically #17 on my list.
So, instead of the federal government supporting the best science or the 2nd best science or 3rd best science...
7) The federal government has banned so many words *and topics* that they are basically left with the 17th best science.
So, I wrote my proposal. It's cool stuff, old stuff I've been working on for the past 18 years, since a PhD student.
I'd rather work on the best science...
8) or the 2nd best science, etc. But it's a good study and would help a lot of people.
Each draft of each document, I used Scan Assist to verify that I didn't have any banned words.
9) but the funny thing was that even upon researching the least controversial 17th best idea on my list, banned words kept popping up.
A lot of these words could be used in a controversial context, but generally are not controversial. A few examples are...
10) "promote" (like promote better care), "barrier" (like overcome barriers to better care), "political" (like someone having an undergrad poli sci major 30 years ago on their biosketch), "bias" (like statistical measurement error), "continuum" (like levels of symptoms)...
11) It was really striking how many words pop up even in a non-controversial application.
My goal was to submit an application with ZERO banned words...
12) And today I submitted a federal grant application with ZERO banned words.
BUT this process censors topics (covid, health disparities, environment, LGBTQ health, etc.).
AND many apps will not be funded because they accidentally include banned words...
13) You can find Dr. Sean Mullen's Scan Assist tool here:
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.
PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17
🧵1/
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.
This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.
We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/
Based on today's CDC & Biobot data, we estimate the following for the week of Jan 19:
🔸1 in 52 people in the U.S. actively infectious
🔸25% chance of exposure in a room of 15 ppl
🔸Nearly 1 million new daily infections
🔸5 cumulative infections per person all-time (avg)
🧵1/5
Transmission estimates have been marginally corrected upward.
11 states have Very High COVlD levels:
🔸PA: 1 in 25 estimated actively infectious
🔸MI: 1 in 23
🔸OH & KY: 1 in 22
🔸SD: 1 in 20
🔸NE & IA: 1 in 18
🔸IL & ME: 1 in 17
🔸IN: 1 in 16
🔸WV: 1 in 11
🧵2/5
We're in the middle of a 12th COVlD wave.
The peak has likely passed, but with students headed back to school, transmission is expected to remain high for at least the next several weeks.
The size of the winter COVlD wave has been revised upward as post-holiday data come in.
We estimated 1 in 55 people in the U.S. are actively infectious.
🔥WV: 1 in 14
🔥IN: 1 in 15
🔥MI & OH: 1 in 21
🔥MO: 1 in 22
🔥CT: 1 in 24
🔥KS: 1 in 25
🔥MA & IL: 1 in 27
Quick 🧵 1/4
Nationally, we are seeing an estimated 892,000 new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections, meaning a 1 in 4 chance of exposure in a room of 15 people. Risk varies considerably by state.
We are approaching an average of 5 infections per person since pandemic onset.
🧵 2/4
We are in the 12th COVlD wave of the U.S.
Current transmission is higher than 68% of all days since the pandemic onset in 2020.
🧵 3/4
You might not have heard, but the northeastern U.S. is in a COVlD surge.
We use wastewater levels to derive estimates of the proportion of people actively infectious in each state (prevalence), e.g., 1 in 24 people in Connecticut.
We told you that 109,000-175,000 Americans would died of COVID (excess deaths) in 2025.
Today, the CDC estimates 101,000 deaths/year (flat from Oct 2022 to Sep 2024), and likely higher when considering more nebulous non-acute excess deaths (heart attack 6 months later). 1/5
The CDC estimates are actually higher than I would have guessed, given their methodology, which models estimates based on easily countable factors in healthcare and expert input on multiplier values. It lends credence to the PMC upper bound of excess deaths of 175,000/yr.
2/5
What's troubling is the CDC has annual mortality flat. My expectation based on mortality displacement and Swiss Re data is that it should be declining. If is stays flat, we're running on something like breast+prostate cancer or lung cancer deaths per year in perpetuity.
3/5