Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jun 16, 2025 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1) Here's a quick example of how the federal government is censoring the best scientific research. It's not just cuts to ongoing research.

It's new grant submissions too... "No forbidden words found"
2) In January, I re-submitted a promising Covid/cancer grant to a non-federal funder. Hundreds of pages. Hundreds of hours of work. The best proposal I've submitted as a scientist.

Out of curiosity, I used Sean Mullen's Scan Assist tool to see how many banned words it had...
3) The proposal had 1,750 banned words. No big deal -- they're non-federal.

BUT I had planned to submit a smaller version to NIH this month as a "back up." Impossible!

It's not a matter of using a thesaurus or the find/replace command. The grant is on *Covid*... 1,750 banned words found
4) Covid is a banned word and -- because grants will be checked with natural language models -- a de facto banned *topic*.

Nobody in their right mind would submit a grant requiring tens or hundreds of hours on a work on a banned topic because...
5) Even if somehow it snuck through and got funded, it could get defunded at any moment when the topic became apparent.

Anything Covid, health disparities, environmental, etc. is DOA from a federal funding perspective.

BUT I wanted to submit something this cycle...
6) So I brainstormed what I could submit for the June 2025 deadlines. The least controversial idea was basically #17 on my list.

So, instead of the federal government supporting the best science or the 2nd best science or 3rd best science...
7) The federal government has banned so many words *and topics* that they are basically left with the 17th best science.

So, I wrote my proposal. It's cool stuff, old stuff I've been working on for the past 18 years, since a PhD student.

I'd rather work on the best science...
8) or the 2nd best science, etc. But it's a good study and would help a lot of people.

Each draft of each document, I used Scan Assist to verify that I didn't have any banned words.

You can find a curated list here btw....
pen.org/banned-words-l…
9) but the funny thing was that even upon researching the least controversial 17th best idea on my list, banned words kept popping up.

A lot of these words could be used in a controversial context, but generally are not controversial. A few examples are...
10) "promote" (like promote better care), "barrier" (like overcome barriers to better care), "political" (like someone having an undergrad poli sci major 30 years ago on their biosketch), "bias" (like statistical measurement error), "continuum" (like levels of symptoms)...
11) It was really striking how many words pop up even in a non-controversial application.

My goal was to submit an application with ZERO banned words...
12) And today I submitted a federal grant application with ZERO banned words.

BUT this process censors topics (covid, health disparities, environment, LGBTQ health, etc.).

AND many apps will not be funded because they accidentally include banned words... "No forbidden words found"
13) You can find Dr. Sean Mullen's Scan Assist tool here:


Please share the tool and my example. Thanks!tinyurl.com/scanassist

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More from @michael_hoerger

Apr 6
PMC COVlD Update, April 6, 2026

Transmission is stable in a relative "lull" nationally between waves.

We estimate that approximately 313,000 people are still getting infected per day, with outbreaks radiating from TN and MS.

🧵1 of 10 (don't miss #10)! Heat map with PMC estimates
With limited data reported, Mississippi has an estimated 1 in 27 residents actively infectious.

In a room of 25 people, that's a 61% chance of exposure, if no testing/isolation protocols.

🧵2 of 10 Alabama	Low Alaska	Very Low Arizona	Very Low* Arkansas	Low California	Very Low Colorado	Very Low Connecticut	Low Delaware	Low District of Columbia	Very Low Florida	Very Low Georgia	Low Guam	Low Hawaii	Very Low Idaho	Very Low Illinois	Very Low Indiana	Very Low Iowa	Very Low Kansas	Low Kentucky	Moderate Louisiana	Moderate Maine	Very Low Maryland	Low Massachusetts	Very Low Michigan	Low Minnesota	Very Low Mississippi	Very High*
1 in 24 people in Tennessee are estimated to be actively infectious with SARS-CoV-2. That's a 65% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people where nobody is testing/isolating.

🧵3 of 10 Missouri	Moderate* Montana	Very Low Nebraska	Very Low Nevada	Very Low New Hampshire	Very Low New Jersey	Low New Mexico	Very Low New York	Very Low North Carolina	Low North Dakota	Very Low* Ohio	Very Low Oklahoma	Low* Oregon	Very Low Pennsylvania	Low Rhode Island	Very Low South Carolina	Very Low South Dakota	Low Tennessee	Very High Texas	Low Utah	Very Low Vermont	Moderate Virginia	Moderate Washington	Very Low West Virginia	Low Wisconsin	Very Low Wyoming	Very Low
Read 10 tweets
Apr 3
This is an unethically misleading study with findings easily explained by residual confounding. Some health systems and patients have thorough record keeping. Others don't. All sorts of variables will correlate (infections, cancers, anything else tracked in medical records).
This is a really obvious issue for an international epi study. It should not have been published.
The above study is using the same processes the anti-vaxxers use -- junk epi that does not account for confounding -- to support whatever pre-conceived notions the authors have, with absurdly large effects.

Read 4 tweets
Mar 23
PMC #COVID Update, March 23, 2026 (U.S.)

Transmission levels have plummeted nationally as we shift from the 12th wave toward a relative "lull."

Over half the states have "Very Low" relative transmission, per the CDC.

🧵THREAD 1 of 8 Heat map using CDC levels and PMC estimate of prevalence (1 in 147 actively infectious nationwide).
Transmission varies considerably by state.

Highest
🔥Mississippi: 1 in 31 estimated actively infectious
🔥Michigan: 1 in 41
*Both states w/limited data though

Rates are quite low in relative terms in California, AZ, FL, HI, ID, MA, NV, NY, OR, RI, UT, WI

🧵THREAD 2 of 8 Alabama	Very Low Alaska	Very Low Arizona	Very Low Arkansas	Low* California	Very Low Colorado	Very Low Connecticut	Low Delaware	Moderate District of Columbia	Low Florida	Very Low Georgia	Very Low Guam	Very Low Hawaii	Very Low Idaho	Very Low Illinois	Very Low Indiana	Low Iowa	Moderate Kansas	Low Kentucky	Moderate Louisiana	Low Maine	Very Low Maryland	Moderate Massachusetts	Very Low Michigan	High* Minnesota	Moderate Mississippi	High* Missouri	Low Montana	Very Low Nebraska	Low Nevada	Very Low New Hampshire	Low* New Jersey	Low New Mexico	Very Low New York	Very Low North Carolina	Low North Dakota...
The 6th anniversary of the WHO's pandemic declaration was March 11.

Bots, minimizers, & individuals' psychological defense mechanisms will downplay that.

Yet, the U.S. just had a 12th wave. We estimate >5 cumulative infections/person & ongoing health harms.

🧵THREAD 3 of 8 Graph of the 12 waves of the pandemic (U.S.)
Read 8 tweets
Mar 14
As of today, the COVID-19 pandemic is now longer than WWII.
If you have been living in denial the past 6 years, know that the U.S. is winding down from a 12th wave of infections presently.
Denial is but one of several obvious defense mechanisms people use to try to block their awareness of the ongoing toll of COVID-19. There are many others.

Short-term capital also plays a role, but even that requires a large dose of defense mechanisms.

Read 7 tweets
Jan 25
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.

PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17

🧵1/ Heat map using CDC data. National PMC prevalence estimate noted; estimated incidence of 732,000 new daily infections.
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/ Column 1: Table of state-level prevalence estimates. Highest estimates noted in the thread text.  Column 2:  Proportion Actively Infectious										1 in 67 (1.5%) New Daily Infections										 732,000  Infections the Past Week										 5,220,000  Infections in 2026										 24,000,000  Cumulative Infections per Person										 5.04  										 Long COVID										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								37,000 to 146,000		   from New Daily Infections										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								261,000 to 1,040,000		   from New Weekly Infections										 										 Excess Deaths										 Ex...
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.

We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/ Fig 1: Graph of 12 waves  Fig 2: "Barometer" showing above average transmission  Fig 3: Year-over-year graph, which informs the analytic forecast  Fig 4: Forecast described in post
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
Based on today's CDC & Biobot data, we estimate the following for the week of Jan 19:

🔸1 in 52 people in the U.S. actively infectious
🔸25% chance of exposure in a room of 15 ppl
🔸Nearly 1 million new daily infections
🔸5 cumulative infections per person all-time (avg)
🧵1/5 Heat map from CDC data with PMC estimates. Description of "Very High" states in next post
Transmission estimates have been marginally corrected upward.

11 states have Very High COVlD levels:

🔸PA: 1 in 25 estimated actively infectious
🔸MI: 1 in 23
🔸OH & KY: 1 in 22
🔸SD: 1 in 20
🔸NE & IA: 1 in 18
🔸IL & ME: 1 in 17
🔸IN: 1 in 16
🔸WV: 1 in 11
🧵2/5 Proportion Actively Infectious										1 in 52 (1.9%) New Daily Infections										 941,000  Infections the Past Week										 6,020,000  Infections in 2026										 18,000,000  Cumulative Infections per Person										 5.01  										 Long COVID										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								47,000 to 188,000		   from New Daily Infections										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								301,000 to 1,200,000		   from New Weekly Infections										 										 Excess Deaths										 Excess Deaths Resulting 									270 to 450	   from New Daily Infections										 Excess Deaths Resulting 				...
We're in the middle of a 12th COVlD wave.

The peak has likely passed, but with students headed back to school, transmission is expected to remain high for at least the next several weeks.

🧵3/5 1) Graph of 12 waves 2) Barometer showing above-average transmission 3) Year over year graph 4) Forecast for transmission to decline and then percolate at high levels
Read 5 tweets

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